How can you guys not be talking more about Sano?

[waroriole]

That's what I'm talking about. Let's go and shoot all of the other scouting directors. If they can't make an offer, we can't lose. Neo style. Maybe we can get Jason Statham to help us out. Take the auction hostage and demand Sano sign with the Orioles. And give him $13 mil and a ML contract.

Nah, if we go in that style we should just hold the gun to his head and have him play for free.

[JTrea81]

Hee Seop Choi, Carlos Zambrano, Felix Pie, Juan Cruz

I don't recall any of those players getting a six figure bonus to sign.

[JTrea81]

No. I mean how an auction works if you're a buyer at one. Have you ever been a buyer at an auction?

I do buy and sell on eBay yes...

And if I do want something bad enough I hit the "Buy it Now" if it is an option and it is a hot item.

I may have overpaid, but at least I got what I wanted.

[MarkF]

This is, once again, ridiculous. They shouldn't pay a penny more than they think he is worth. You don't top someone who is overpaying.

I may want a bottle of Krug Clos du Mesnil when I go to a restaurant, but I'm not going to pay $2500 for it. I may go to $1200 - or even $1800 - but there simply no reason to pay $2500.*

*Edited to note that that's a hypothetical.

What do you mean hypothetical? I love that wine. I pay the $2500 and I drink it by the gallon. In fact, just yesterday I filled the pool with it and had 30 friends over for a dip in it. Hypothetical. Hah!!

:wedge:

[Lucky Jim]

I do buy and sell on eBay yes...

And if I do want something bad enough I hit the "Buy it Now" if it is an option and it is a hot item.

I may have overpaid, but at least I got what I wanted.

The prosecution rests.

[BringBackMagic]

I do buy and sell on eBay yes...

And if I do want something bad enough I hit the "Buy it Now" if it is an option and it is a hot item.

I may have overpaid, but at least I got what I wanted.

Yes. This is why JTrea should be the VP for Baseball Operations. Free Agency is just like eBay.

https://www.ezsniper.com/join.php3

We need to sign up for this. Wait until the last second and beat the top offer by 1 Cent.

[JTrea81]

I wish people would stop giving him opportunities to ruin thread after thread.

The people that are ruining this thread are those that are responding mockingly to my posts.

[BringBackMagic]

The people that are ruining this thread are those that are responding mockingly to my posts.

I agree. I hate those guys.

[TGO]

I don't recall any of those players getting a six figure bonus to sign.

Were you really paying attention to amateur signing bonuses in 1997?

Here you go: The Cubs signed Jae Kuk Ryu for $1.6 million in 2001. http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=CSTB&p_theme=cstb&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=0ECC89E61355CF62&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM

[hihop07]

Anyway... back to earth, people... it would be exciting if we were seriously in the race for Sano. It looks like everything checks out with him, and we certainly can give Sano more than 3 million. We'll see what happens come July 2nd.

[Stotle]

This is, once again, ridiculous. They shouldn't pay a penny more than they think he is worth. You don't top someone who is overpaying.

I may want a bottle of Krug Clos du Mesnil when I go to a restaurant, but I'm not going to pay $2500 for it. I may go to $1200 - or even $1800 - but there simply no reason to pay $2500.*

*Edited to note that that's a hypothetical.

I think this is not correct. In an open market, if this is your strategy, the only way you will ever get the best talent is if you are better than everyone else at identifying undervalued talent. I don't think any team can survive solely on that approach (though Schuerholz came pretty freaking close).

I think you always have to be willing to go a reasonable amount over your "value" number, unless you need every penny you have to achieve your stated goal as an organization. I don't think this is the case with Baltimore.

Now, that isn't to say that the organization should be fiscally irresponsible, but I believe it can't be a slave to the principles of not overpaying. If Harris wants 300K and BAL thinks he is worth 250K, at what point do you say "50K is worth the risk"? If Markakis had refused to sign unless he received a total of $6mios more than he got, should BAL have refused to sign him because it was "more than they thought he was worth"?

Likewise, if BAL thinks Sano is a special talent, and places his value at $4mios, how could you not go to $4.2mios? Do you go to $4.5mios? $5mios? I don't know. But I don't think you can limit yourself to solely paying value. It's a great way to run a business, but I think ultimately there is a gray area between value and irresponsible that requires some face time in order to max out your opportunity for winning without overly-burdening your resources.

[SimplyZ]

The prosecution rests.

I was hoping someone would jump on that post. Anyone who thinks Ebay works like actual auctions is sorta kidding themselves. Its not THAT different in purpose, but the process is definitely different

[JTrea81]

Were you really paying attention to amateur signing bonuses in 1997?

The Cubs signed Jae Kuk Ryu for $1.6 million in 2001.

Fine let me rephrase: MacPhail has never paid (to my knowledge) a six figure or more bonus to a Latin amateur talent.

[JTrea81]

I was hoping someone would jump on that post. Anyone who thinks Ebay works like actual auctions is sorta kidding themselves. Its not THAT different in purpose, but the process is definitely different

I know what an auction is for goodness sakes, I was just using eBay as an example. Do people really need to feel the need to try to pick apart every post I make now and try to devalue anything I say? It really doesn't add anything to the thread...

[Lucky Jim]

I think this is not correct. In an open market, if this is your strategy, the only way you will ever get the best talent is if you are better than everyone else at identifying undervalued talent. I don't think any team can survive solely on that approach (though Schuerholz came pretty freaking close).

I think you always have to be willing to go a reasonable amount over your "value" number, unless you need every penny you have to achieve your stated goal as an organization. I don't think this is the case with Baltimore.

Now, that isn't to say that the organization should be fiscally irresponsible, but I believe it can't be a slave to the principles of not overpaying. If Harris wants 300K and BAL thinks he is worth 250K, at what point do you say "50K is worth the risk"? If Markakis had refused to sign unless he received a total of $6mios more than he got, should BAL have refused to sign him because it was "more than they thought he was worth"?

Likewise, if BAL thinks Sano is a special talent, and places his value at $4mios, how could you not go to $4.2mios? Do you go to $4.5mios? $5mios? I don't know. But I don't think you can limit yourself to solely paying value. It's a great way to run a business, but I think ultimately there is a gray area between value and irresponsible that requires some face time in order to max out your opportunity for winning without overly-burdening your resources.

This is, of course, fair. Frankly, however, I think there has to be a hard ceiling on what you think his ceiling multiplied/discounted by his probability is worth. It's just that the valuation must have some kind of internal accounting for both your desire to purchase and the inherent difficult of precisely valuing. And you don't go over it.

Now, disagree all you want, but for me going into this bidding w/o such a ceiling would be highly problematic. In that sense, I stand by the statement that you don't pay a penny more than someone is worth. But I'll admit that it may have been poorly phrased.