O's on top 100 lists

[QBsILLEST1]

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/28093/mlb-with-jim-callis

Yeah, atleast we know Britton will show up on atleast one top 100 list! As for Hobgood, I dont expect him on the list because he wasnt regarded as the 5th best prospect like RZ said, also hes a HSer and it seems as though HSer's have to be slightly more regarded than college pitchers when it comes to the rankings.

[QBsILLEST1]

Besides durability and consistency.

Those are kind of important.

Well, the durability problem with Erbe is actually somewhat exaggerated, I said the same thing earlier this year and was smashed by RZNJ because in actuality, this is the only year he missed any significant amount of starts since becoming pro. And as far as consistency, this is actually where he thrived this year. He was very consistent, and it led to a 2.34 ERA and something like a .170 BAA in Bowie as one of the youngest. He definitely turned a corner this year and if you call him inconsistent, then IMO you ignore his development this season....

[Tony-OH]

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/28093/mlb-with-jim-callis

Callis has never been high on Britton so it's not a surprise he would say that. It's not a knock on Callis because everyone is allowed to have their own opinion, but I would say most people in the industry would probably disagree with his assessment. If there are 100 better prospects in baseball than Zach Britton than the other systems must be stacked.

[hoosiers]

I've exchanged emails with Callis on Britton and Jim likes ZB just fine - just does not see the upside that would make ZB a top 100 guy. Now, there are several other senior analysts at BA that could counter Callis' pessimism and still push ZB into the BA Top 100. We'll see.

[QBsILLEST1]

I've exchanged emails with Callis on Britton and Jim likes ZB just fine - just does not see the upside that would make ZB a top 100 guy. Now, there are several other senior analysts at BA that could counter Callis' pessimism and still push ZB into the BA Top 100. We'll see.

Thats strange, what about his ceiling doesnt scream top 100 I wonder. He has elite GB rates, he can get his fastball as high as 94/95, has a plus slider and is developing the changeup into an above average pitch. He could walk less batters but its not terrible....I just dont see what would make Cahill a top 15 guy last year and Britton not in the top 100, the only diff for me is Cahill had better command. Britton gets better every year showing his development in his ERA, GB rates as well as K/9...IMO he should be a top 75 or better guy but thats just me...

[Stotle]

Thats strange, what about his ceiling doesnt scream top 100 I wonder. He has elite GB rates, he can get his fastball as high as 94/95, has a plus slider and is developing the changeup into an above average pitch. He could walk less batters but its not terrible....I just dont see what would make Cahill a top 15 guy last year and Britton not in the top 100, the only diff for me is Cahill had better command. Britton gets better every year showing his development in his ERA, GB rates as well as K/9...IMO he should be a top 75 or better guy but thats just me...

I'd start with Cahill striking out 2 more batters per 9 IP at HiA and reaching AA as a 20 year old in '08 (Britton turns 22 in December).

[Lucky Jim]

I'd start with Cahill striking out 2 more batters per 9 IP at HiA and reaching AA as a 20 year old in '08 (Britton turns 22 in December).

Well, to be fair, he did say "why Cahill is top 15" and "Britton not in the top 100" - not that they were equal.

[Big Mac]

Well, the durability problem with Erbe is actually somewhat exaggerated, I said the same thing earlier this year and was smashed by RZNJ because in actuality, this is the only year he missed any significant amount of starts since becoming pro. And as far as consistency, this is actually where he thrived this year. He was very consistent, and it led to a 2.34 ERA and something like a .170 BAA in Bowie as one of the youngest. He definitely turned a corner this year and if you call him inconsistent, then IMO you ignore his development this season....

Eh, I guess I'm just not as enamored with what Erbe did this season. His BB's increased and K's decreased. Plus, he only threw 73 innings.

To me, there's just nothing about him that screams, "Oh, this guy looks like a bonafide ML SP".

The fact that he hasn't put together a full, consistent season since he was 18 is a major red flag for me.

[Stotle]

Well, to be fair, he did say "why Cahill is top 15" and "Britton not in the top 100" - not that they were equal.

Oh, I think my post could answer both questions.

To be clear, there just isn't THAT much that separates the 75th best prospect and the 115th best prospect. I think an argument can be made for Britton in the top 100, certainly. But he isn't a slam dunk for me.

[QBsILLEST1]

Eh, I guess I'm just not as enamored with what Erbe did this season. His BB's increased and K's decreased. Plus, he only threw 73 innings.

To me, there's just nothing about him that screams, "Oh, this guy looks like a bonafide ML SP".

The fact that he hasn't put together a full, consistent season since he was 18 is a major red flag for me.

Well, he had a very nice 05 and 06 seasons, good enough to make bim a top 100 prospect. Then he had a bad 07, better 08 and then this year in 09 he finally became more consistent. His K's did increase, but he also changed his approach. And if you think theres nothing about him that screams"Oh this guy looks like a bonafide SP", then you dont know much about him. He has 3 above average pitches and courtesy of Allstar, hes a "feel" kinda pitcher. If one of his pitches isnt working, he can work around it very well. On top of that, hes the most dominant pitcher in our system when hes on. He also has better command than his BB/9 shows.

Oh, I think my post could answer both questions.

To be clear, there just isn't THAT much that separates the 75th best prospect and the 115th best prospect. I think an argument can be made for Britton in the top 100, certainly. But he isn't a slam dunk for me.

There isnt that much that separates it, but think about it. I mean even if you take out the fact that hes a GB pitcher, just considering that he can touch mid 90's with his fastball, has a plus slider and is developing a possible above average or better changeup. His K's and ERA get better every year and his K/9 is just about 1 per inning. That itself makes him a pretty good prospect, then the fact that he has one of the best GBratios in the minors, IMO makes him a surefire top 100 prospect.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Eh, I guess I'm just not as enamored with what Erbe did this season. His BB's increased and K's decreased. Plus, he only threw 73 innings.

To me, there's just nothing about him that screams, "Oh, this guy looks like a bonafide ML SP".

The fact that he hasn't put together a full, consistent season since he was 18 is a major red flag for me.

He looks like a bona fide MLB prospect in about 80 per cent of his starts. He looks like a dog in the rest.

Among all the young arms in the system he probably has more dominant performances than anyone over the past two seasons. The one exception might be Matusz. And by dominant I mean "virtually impossible to hit." I can't find his MiL game logs, but I know that his last six starts included an eight-inning no-hitter (3BB) and a seven-inning one-hitter (0 BB) for Bowie. Take away his five worst starts for Frederick last year and you've got a season that belongs to a future TOR ace. (And no, you can't say that about every pitching prospect, or even most of them).

Obviously he has been erratic, and I'm not underplaying the importance of consistency. But I believe that the material could be there for something special. I would be thrilled if the O's had a couple more like him. They would probably end up with at least one spectacular starting pitcher.

[Stotle]

There isnt that much that separates it, but think about it. I mean even if you take out the fact that hes a GB pitcher, just considering that he can touch mid 90's with his fastball, has a plus slider and is developing a possible above average or better changeup. His K's and ERA get better every year and his K/9 is just about 1 per inning. That itself makes him a pretty good prospect, then the fact that he has one of the best GBratios in the minors, IMO makes him a surefire top 100 prospect.

I have thought about it quite a bit. Britton is an excellent young pitcher. But I think you may be focusing too much on the best of the reports received on his stuff/ceiling. You call his slider a plus pitch -- but why? It still isn't a consistent swing-and-miss pitch, though it certainly helps his GB% by preventing hitters in the Carolina League from squaring up. It's great to get reports that he's hit mid-90s, and sitting low-90s is more than enough, but his stuff right now looks much closer to mid-rotation than front-end. Just my opinion.

I think if you see him continue to succeed with this stuff at AA, he'll turn some heads. Right now, there are still plenty of questions -- certainly enough that making an argument for ranking him in the 101-150 range is as understandable (perhaps more so) as making an argument for 51- 100. In other words, I think this year added him to a lot of watch lists, but AA success is what will get him recognized on the national lists.

Of course, I think scouts, off the record, are more likely to stick their neck out. I could see a number of them willing to put Britton up there in the rankings if they've seen enough of him and have liked what they've seen.

[Sports Guy]

Matusz: top 5

Arrieta: top 35

Bell, Britton, Erbe and Snyder: 75-120 range

[QBsILLEST1]

Matusz: top 5

Arrieta: top 35

Bell, Britton, Arrieta and Snyder: 75-120 range

Arrieta is so good that hes gonna be listed at 35 and somewhere between 75 and 120.....But on a serious note, if you were gonna make a list up to 120, Id think Erbe would find his name on there as well....

[Sports Guy]

Arrieta is so good that hes gonna be listed at 35 and somewhere between 75 and 120.....But on a serious note, if you were gonna make a list up to 120, Id think Erbe would find his name on there as well....

Meant to type Erbe when I typed Arrieta twice.