O's on top 100 lists

[Big Mac]

I hear you, but IMO in game analysis is even better than #'s. Its not all about #'s. I like to use a good mix of evaluation and #'s. The reports coming back from people saying he changed his approach and that he looked good pitching the way he is now means more than the stats to me. You factor in the fact that no one hit him or scored many runs against him and it tells me that he pitched well. He actually gained consitency this year which people arent seeming to give him credit for. What would you rather have? His 08 season or his 09 season? I like his 09 season, it shows me that he is capable of putting it all together and I think he will continue to progress.

They are about equal, IMO.

His K/9 was much better, his BB/9 were lower. FIP was about equal.

The biggest stride Erbe made was cutting down on the HR ball. However, he threw 150 innings in 08.

To me, when you throw half the innings from the year before because of "shoulder fatigue", and then see your K/9 drop and BB/9 increase, it's a major red flag. I see much more of a ML SP in 08 Erbe than in 09 Erbe.

[QBsILLEST1]

They are about equal, IMO.

His K/9 was much better, his BB/9 were lower. FIP was about equal.

The biggest stride Erbe made was cutting down on the HR ball. However, he threw 150 innings in 08.

To me, when you throw half the innings from the year before because of "shoulder fatigue", and then see your K/9 drop and BB/9 increase, it's a major red flag. I see much more of a ML SP in 08 Erbe than in 09 Erbe.

I see more SP potential in 09 mostly because he changed his approach from trying to K everyone and became more consistent. He cut his velo down so he could go deeper into the game which probably hurt his K's, but the fact he got shoulder fatigue doesnt necessarily mean that he doesnt have the physical build to be a SP, it could mean that he didnt condition well enough before the season and he began throwing too hard too soon.

[Big Mac]

I see more SP potential in 09 mostly because he changed his approach from trying to K everyone and became more consistent. He cut his velo down so he could go deeper into the game which probably hurt his K's, but the fact he got shoulder fatigue doesnt necessarily mean that he doesnt have the physical build to be a SP, it could mean that he didnt condition well enough before the season and he began throwing too hard too soon.

Eh, we obviously interpret his season much differently so We'll just have to agree to disagree.

[QBsILLEST1]

Eh, we obviously interpret his season much differently so We'll just have to agree to disagree.

I agree....to disagree Itll be interesting to see whose prospect status rises and whose stagnates. Im interested to see if Britton can continue to progress and pitch well and also see if Erbe can turn another corner. Hobgood to me is a break out candidate as are a few other kids we drafted this year like Henry, Tolliver and Cowan. I cant wait to get my first looks at Coffey and Martin as well as Ryan Berry....

[LookinUp]

I see more SP potential in 09 mostly because he changed his approach from trying to K everyone and became more consistent.

Really? How do you know this was a change in approach and not a change in stuff? As you say below, his velocity was down.

He cut his velo down so he could go deeper into the game which probably hurt his K's

Again, how do you know this? What if his velo was down due to wear and tear in his shoulder? After all, didn't he miss about 1/2 of the year for that?

but the fact he got shoulder fatigue doesnt necessarily mean that he doesnt have the physical build to be a SP, it could mean that he didnt condition well enough before the season and he began throwing too hard too soon.

It could, but multiple scouting reports from prior to 2009 indicated that he had a lot of effort in his delivery, which made a potential candidate for the pen, rather than as a starter. The shoulder fatigue seemed to confirm those previous scouting reports.

Indeed, for many, this year was a strong indication that Erbe should be moved to the pen rather than be a starter. It was far from a breakout year, given the context of those previous reports. Even if he has the stuff to start, that doesn't mean that he'll hold up as a starter.

[LookinUp]

BTW, I'm sorry to jump at your post, it's just that you have the biggest pair of orange kool aid glasses when it comes to our prospects. They ALWAYS get the benefit of the doubt. When other posters have caveats about one or any of them, they're often well-founded.

I love your posts, so please don't take this personally. I just think some (I think) appropriate balance is in order.

[Stotle]

Really? How do you know this was a change in approach and not a change in stuff? As you say below, his velocity was down.

Again, how do you know this? What if his velo was down due to wear and tear in his shoulder? After all, didn't he miss about 1/2 of the year for that?

It could, but multiple scouting reports from prior to 2009 indicated that he had a lot of effort in his delivery, which made a potential candidate for the pen, rather than as a starter. The shoulder fatigue seemed to confirm those previous scouting reports.

Indeed, for many, this year was a strong indication that Erbe should be moved to the pen rather than be a starter. It was far from a breakout year, given the context of those previous reports. Even if he has the stuff to start, that doesn't mean that he'll hold up as a starter.

I agree with this, and agree this year seems to be a step towards the pen. I don't remember, but I think I had that convo at the time of the injury with someone on here.

[Lucky Jim]

BTW, I'm sorry to jump at your post, it's just that you have the biggest pair of orange kool aid glasses when it comes to our prospects. They ALWAYS get the benefit of the doubt. When other posters have caveats about one or any of them, they're often well-founded.

I love your posts, so please don't take this personally. I just think some (I think) appropriate balance is in order.

Bingo. Love the posts, too. But feel compelled to point out those issues where your love of our prospects overtakes your reason, QB.

[QBsILLEST1]

Really? How do you know this was a change in approach and not a change in stuff? As you say below, his velocity was down.

Again, how do you know this? What if his velo was down due to wear and tear in his shoulder? After all, didn't he miss about 1/2 of the year for that?

It could, but multiple scouting reports from prior to 2009 indicated that he had a lot of effort in his delivery, which made a potential candidate for the pen, rather than as a starter. The shoulder fatigue seemed to confirm those previous scouting reports.

Indeed, for many, this year was a strong indication that Erbe should be moved to the pen rather than be a starter. It was far from a breakout year, given the context of those previous reports. Even if he has the stuff to start, that doesn't mean that he'll hold up as a starter.

I agree with this, and agree this year seems to be a step towards the pen. I don't remember, but I think I had that convo at the time of the injury with someone on here.

I got my info from Allstar who scouted Erbe pretty heavily this season. He spoke with him a few times and relayed the info. He said that Erbe cut back on his velo to improve his command and also to enable him to go deeper into games. Allstar also said that Erbe had changed his approach.

I can agree this year was a step toward the pen, but theyre gonna keep trying him as a SP of course until he completely proves he cannot hold up. Since he was drafted this is the first significant amount of time Erbe lost due to any kind of injury. Thats what 3 years? I understand the fact that he had shoulder fatigue scares some people, but its not reoccuring, its the 1st time hes went down because of such a thing. So, Im not gonna immedietly turn towards the pen as far as Erbe goes because he dealt with a dead arm period...

Im just hoping this isnt something bigger that the O's kept hidden sorta like the Rich Hill Saga....

[LookinUp]

I got my info from Allstar who scouted Erbe pretty heavily this season. He spoke with him a few times and relayed the info. He said that Erbe cut back on his velo to improve his command and also to enable him to go deeper into games. Allstar also said that Erbe had changed his approach.

I can agree this year was a step toward the pen, but theyre gonna keep trying him as a SP of course until he completely proves he cannot hold up. Since he was drafted this is the first significant amount of time Erbe lost due to any kind of injury. Thats what 3 years? I understand the fact that he had shoulder fatigue scares some people, but its not reoccuring, its the 1st time hes went down because of such a thing. So, Im not gonna immedietly turn towards the pen as far as Erbe goes because he dealt with a dead arm period...

Im just hoping this isnt something bigger that the O's kept hidden sorta like the Rich Hill Saga....

Yeah, we're all hoping that. This is at least part of the reason I'm taking a cautionary stance on where Erbe should start next year (AA). There is no rush. Let's make sure he is very close to what he's going to be before pushing him to the brink of the majors.

[allstar1579]

They are about equal, IMO.

His K/9 was much better, his BB/9 were lower. FIP was about equal.

The biggest stride Erbe made was cutting down on the HR ball. However, he threw 150 innings in 08.

To me, when you throw half the innings from the year before because of "shoulder fatigue", and then see your K/9 drop and BB/9 increase, it's a major red flag. I see much more of a ML SP in 08 Erbe than in 09 Erbe.

Stats are good to tell you how someone did perform, but they don't mean that's how they should be or will perform in the future. That being said I think there needs to be a balance of the two schools of thought regarding prospects, but I've had that convo 100 times on here. Moving on.

His BB/9 were higher this year because he was trying a new approach, he wasn't just trying to throw the ball high and fast past hitters like he got away with in the lower levels, he was really working on setting up guys and getting the outs, that and his BB numbers were skewed a bit from just a couple games when he had high walk totals cause he didn't have a certain out pitch working.

The shoulder fatigue thing was more from this spring, he just never got moving, even at the very beginning of the season he didn't feel quite right, never really got loose, so they shut him down just to be careful that he didn't try to overcompensate and mess up his delivery or hurt something. Nothing major.

Really? How do you know this was a change in approach and not a change in stuff? As you say below, his velocity was down.

Again, how do you know this? What if his velo was down due to wear and tear in his shoulder? After all, didn't he miss about 1/2 of the year for that?

It could, but multiple scouting reports from prior to 2009 indicated that he had a lot of effort in his delivery, which made a potential candidate for the pen, rather than as a starter. The shoulder fatigue seemed to confirm those previous scouting reports.

Indeed, for many, this year was a strong indication that Erbe should be moved to the pen rather than be a starter. It was far from a breakout year, given the context of those previous reports. Even if he has the stuff to start, that doesn't mean that he'll hold up as a starter.

Erbs said himself that he was concentrating on not throwing as hard after coming back to try to work deeper into games, that coupled with his new approach of working off the off-speed stuff (which you need to do at this level and above) was wearing him down early. The pre-2009 reports are outdated because they overhauled his delivery a bit back in 2008 so it's changed from those reports, it's much less effortless and smooth now, although he tends to fall a bit towards first base once in a while, but I think that is because he likes to work on that corner of the plate.

He showed a couple times that he could still hit the higher velocity levels when he wanted to, but the harder he throws the worse his control is, so he seems to have settled into a comfort zone there. If it were an injury thing that cost him MPH all of his pitches would have been down a bit, but the rest are exactly where they were, it's just his FB, which he still dialed up to 93-94ish here and there, he just likes to sit around 91 now. It worked, he can place it better.

His walks weren't a result of being wild I'd say 85% of his BB come with a full count, they were from him trying to make batters swing and miss usually, he does a good job of thinking through AB and setting up future pitches, he was just a victim of trying to be too precise and missing with the count full sometimes.

[LookinUp]

Good post. Rep to you and QbIll for making those points.

I still think we should take it slow with him though.

[mler1019]

When does BA's top 100 come out?

[Stotle]

When does BA's top 100 come out?

Usually January/February.