O's on top 100 lists

[QBsILLEST1]

Meant to type Erbe when I typed Arrieta twice.

Ahhh, ok ok. People are gonna be pleasantly surprised by Arrieta I think when he makes his debut. It seems as though folks have been kinda meh on him after this last year and since both Tillman and Matusz have come up and done well, it just kinda seems like Arrieta has been forgotten about. People are claiming Britton to be the top Sp prospect in the system, but IMO people have somehow come to underestimate/overlook Jake. He could end up the best pitcher of all these guys, not saying I expect it to happen, but hes the only one of the Big 3 with a truely overpowering fastball and a wipe out slider that was becoming more consistent this season.

[Big Mac]

Well, he had a very nice 05 and 06 seasons, good enough to make bim a top 100 prospect. Then he had a bad 07, better 08 and then this year in 09 he finally became more consistent. His K's did increase, but he also changed his approach. And if you think theres nothing about him that screams"Oh this guy looks like a bonafide SP", then you dont know much about him. He has 3 above average pitches and courtesy of Allstar, hes a "feel" kinda pitcher. If one of his pitches isnt working, he can work around it very well. On top of that, hes the most dominant pitcher in our system when hes on. He also has better command than his BB/9 shows.

He looks like a bona fide MLB prospect in about 80 per cent of his starts. He looks like a dog in the rest.

Among all the young arms in the system he probably has more dominant performances than anyone over the past two seasons. The one exception might be Matusz. And by dominant I mean "virtually impossible to hit." I can't find his MiL game logs, but I know that his last six starts included an eight-inning no-hitter (3BB) and a seven-inning one-hitter (0 BB) for Bowie. Take away his five worst starts for Frederick last year and you've got a season that belongs to a future TOR ace. (And no, you can't say that about every pitching prospect, or even most of them).

Obviously he has been erratic, and I'm not underplaying the importance of consistency. But I believe that the material could be there for something special. I would be thrilled if the O's had a couple more like him. They would probably end up with at least one spectacular starting pitcher.

Don't get me wrong, I like Erbe as a prospect a lot, but I just didn't really consider this a "breakout" season from him.

I think he can make it as a starter, but he needs quite a bit more seasoning in the minors. As a reliever, he's probably very close to ML ready, as a starter I think he's a little ways away.

I think he needs all of next year and a good part of 2011 in the minors before he's ready for our rotation.

Personally, I'd have him pitch in Bowie the first half next season and then move him up to Norfolk if he's been pitching well.

[laxtonto]

So let me get this straight... Pretty much everyone on this board expects Matusz to be a top 5 guy? I am not sure he is such a lock like everyone expects. I still think he falls in the 6-15 range.

Strasburg

Heyward

Neftali Feliz

Desomnd Jennings

Carlos Santana

Jesus Montero

Justin Smoak

Dustin Ackley

Wade Davis

Pedro Alvarez

And I am probably missing several NL guys....

So he rates ahead of all but 4 guys on this list? Strasburg is pretty much a lock at #1 or #2 with Heyward getting the other spot, so that leaves 3 spots in the top 5.

[Big Mac]

So let me get this straight... Pretty much everyone on this board expects Matusz to be a top 5 guy? I am not sure he is such a lock like everyone expects. I still think he falls in the 6-15 range.

Strasburg

Heyward

Neftali Feliz

Desomnd Jennings

Carlos Santana

Jesus Montero

Justin Smoak

Dustin Ackley

Wade Davis

Pedro Alvarez

And I am probably missing several NL guys....

So he rates ahead of all but 4 guys on this list? Strasburg is pretty much a lock at #1 or #2 with Heyward getting the other spot, so that leaves 3 spots in the top 5.

I'd put him right behind Strasburg and Heyward.

Heck, Strasburg hasn't thrown a professional ptich, I might rate Matusz ahead of him too.

[wickedwitch]

Personally, I'd have him pitch in Bowie the first half next season and then move him up to Norfolk if he's been pitching well.

Why would you start him in Bowie? I think Erbe of all the pitchers needs to be moved up the most. He needs to start facing players who could actually get hits off him.

Plus, unless there's a very good reason, it's poor form to not promote a prospect who succeeded at a level.

[Big Mac]

Why would you start him in Bowie? I think Erbe of all the pitchers needs to be moved up the most. He needs to start facing players who could actually get hits off him.

Plus, unless there's a very good reason, it's poor form to not promote a prospect who succeeded at a level.

Well he didn't throw many innings there, I'd like to see him be successful there for more than 70 innings.

[Big Mac]

Matusz threw 46 IP at AA. Arrieta threw 59. Just sayin.

I see your point but Matusz was much more successful and Arrieta had a much better prior track record.

[wickedwitch]

I see your point but Matusz was much more successful and Arrieta had a much better prior track record.

So what's the formula for IP, success, and track record that would determine whether a prospect is whether to move up?

What does Erbe have to gain from staying in Bowie? Can he gain this at Norfolk? What could he gain from being promoted?

[mdterpsrule]

So let me get this straight... Pretty much everyone on this board expects Matusz to be a top 5 guy? I am not sure he is such a lock like everyone expects. I still think he falls in the 6-15 range.

Strasburg

Heyward

Neftali Feliz

Desomnd Jennings

Carlos Santana

Jesus Montero

Justin Smoak

Dustin Ackley

Wade Davis

Pedro Alvarez

And I am probably missing several NL guys....

So he rates ahead of all but 4 guys on this list? Strasburg is pretty much a lock at #1 or #2 with Heyward getting the other spot, so that leaves 3 spots in the top 5.

No way most of those guys are over Matsuz. Ackley Smoak Alvarez Jennings and Davis will not be. The only 3 people who really have a chance are Heyward Strass and Bumgarner.

[Big Mac]

So what's the formula for IP, success, and track record that would determine whether a prospect is whether to move up?

What does Erbe have to gain from staying in Bowie? Can he gain this at Norfolk? What could he gain from being promoted?

He has plenty to gain, particularly consistency, getting his BB/9 back down to where it was in Frederick getting his K's back up.

I honestly don't care either way, but if the goal is to keep Erbe as a SP, I think it's best for him to repeat AA.

[wickedwitch]

No way most of those guys are over Matsuz. Ackley Smoak Alvarez Jennings and Davis will not be. The only 3 people who really have a chance are Heyward Strass and Bumgarner.

No way Bumgarner is ahead of him. But Alvarez is a possibility.

[QBsILLEST1]

He has plenty to gain, particularly consistency, getting his BB/9 back down to where it was in Frederick getting his K's back up.

I honestly don't care either way, but if the goal is to keep Erbe as a SP, I think it's best for him to repeat AA.

Do you see what the opponents batting average was against Erbe? That in its own describes how much better Erbe was than his competition. I see absolutely no reason for him to stay at AA.

So let me get this straight... Pretty much everyone on this board expects Matusz to be a top 5 guy? I am not sure he is such a lock like everyone expects. I still think he falls in the 6-15 range.

Strasburg

Heyward

Neftali Feliz

Desomnd Jennings

Carlos Santana

Jesus Montero

Justin Smoak

Dustin Ackley

Wade Davis

Pedro Alvarez

And I am probably missing several NL guys....

So he rates ahead of all but 4 guys on this list? Strasburg is pretty much a lock at #1 or #2 with Heyward getting the other spot, so that leaves 3 spots in the top 5.

Yeah, I think you are way undervaluing Matusz's progression. He went from HiA to the major leagues in 1 season, not to mention he was among the most dominant if not THE most dominant in each league he played in as he came through the system. He has the best arsenal IMO in thwe minors and came up to the majors and caught on quickly tossing 3 7 inning games to end his first season. If not for Strasburg, Matusz is my #1 SP in the majors and even still I may rate Matusz ahead. I know I personally can make a very strong case for Matusz. The rest of the guys mentioned IMO its no contest, and I would rate him even ahead of Alvarez. Id go Heyward, Strasburg then Matusz.....

And Bumgarner IMO is gonna see a big drop in his prospect status after losing his fastball this year, now hes a lefty with exellent command of a few average pitches.....Compare that to Matusz who is a lefty who now throws about 4 MPH harder than Bumgarner and everyone of Matusz's pitches are better than MadBum's...Thats no contest to me either....

[Lucky Jim]

Do you see what the opponents batting average was against Erbe? That in its own describes how much better Erbe was than his competition. I see absolutely no reason for him to stay at AA.

Yeah, I think you are way undervaluing Matusz's progression. He went from HiA to the major leagues in 1 season, not to mention he was among the most dominant if not THE most dominant in each league he played in as he came through the system. He has the best arsenal IMO in thwe minors and came up to the majors and caught on quickly tossing 3 7 inning games to end his first season. If not for Strasburg, Matusz is my #1 SP in the majors and even still I may rate Matusz ahead. I know I personally can make a very strong case for Matusz. The rest of the guys mentioned IMO its no contest, and I would rate him even ahead of Alvarez. Id go Heyward, Strasburg then Matusz.....

And Bumgarner IMO is gonna see a big drop in his prospect status after losing his fastball this year, now hes a lefty with exellent command of a few average pitches.....Compare that to Matusz who is a lefty who now throws about 4 MPH harder than Bumgarner and everyone of Matusz's pitches are better than MadBum's...Thats no contest to me either....

First, Erbe's FIP at Bowie was 4.09, which tells you that he didn't dominate nearly as much as his numbers might suggest - of course, his numbers don't really suggest domination beyond his abnormally low BABIP and his attendant low ERA.

Second, no one here doubts you can make an argument for Matusz over Strassburg, but I'm pretty sure we all doubt that you can make a strong argument. I'm not a Strassburg groupie, but until his arm falls off, he's the number one pitching prospect in MiLB. He's got two plus-plus pitches, and he's got good command.

Third, Matusz doesn't throw 4MPH harder than Bumgarner. In their time up, Matusz averaged about 3 MPH harder than Bumgarner on the fastball - 91.5 to 88.5 (you can find this on Fangraphs).

But you're likely making a mistake if you assume that this is a trait that will carry forward. (Just like it would've been a mistake to hold Tillman's down-velo game against him going forward.)

We know that - historically - MB's top-end velocity is higher than Matusz's. Even if he never regains that, there's no indication that Matusz will stay 4MPH above him.

[QBsILLEST1]

First, Erbe's FIP at Bowie was 4.09, which tells you that he didn't dominate nearly as much as his numbers might suggest - of course, his numbers don't really suggest domination beyond his abnormally low BABIP and his attendant low ERA.

Second, no one here doubts you can make an argument for Matusz over Strassburg, but I'm pretty sure we all doubt that you can make a strong argument. I'm not a Strassburg groupie, but until his arm falls off, he's the number one pitching prospect in MiLB. He's got two plus-plus pitches, and he's got good command.

Third, Matusz doesn't throw 4MPH harder than Bumgarner. In their time up, Matusz averaged about 3 MPH harder than Bumgarner on the fastball - 91.5 to 88.5 (you can find this on Fangraphs).

But you're likely making a mistake if you assume that this is a trait that will carry forward. (Just like it would've been a mistake to hold Tillman's down-velo game against him going forward.)

We know that - historically - MB's top-end velocity is higher than Matusz's. Even if he never regains that, there's no indication that Matusz will stay 4MPH above him.

From everything Ive seen and heard, Strasburg's slider is plus. And even if it is plus-plus, Tony came back himself reporting Matusz had 2 plus-plus pitches, not to mention another plus and then another above average pitch. He has plus command and pitchability as well......

As for Bumgarner losing velo, it was a point in mys discussion, but not the main point, regardless, Matusz IMO was a better prospect even when MadBum had a 97 MPH fastball, because his secondaries are still average at best. Now that hes topping out at 90 MPH when he starts and 92 when he relieves, IMO he should barely be a top 50 guy. And if he is, he will be the only top 50 pitcher without a plus, or even above average pitch.....

And the fact that you shoot down the fact that Matusz throws 4 mph harder thsn MadBum, following it up with , "He only throws 3MPH harder" IMO is petty, Matusz still threw harder by a good margin.....Your reaching for arguments here, I know your a lwayer but hell give me a break!

[Lucky Jim]

From everything Ive seen and heard, Strasburg's slider is plus. And even if it is plus-plus, Tony came back himself reporting Matusz had 2 plus-plus pitches, not to mention another plus and then another above average pitch. He has plus command and pitchability as well......

As for Bumgarner losing velo, it was a point in mys discussion, but not the main point, regardless, Matusz IMO was a better prospect even when MadBum had a 97 MPH fastball, because his secondaries are still average at best. Now that hes topping out at 90 MPH when he starts and 92 when he relieves, IMO he should barely be a top 50 guy. And if he is, he will be the only top 50 pitcher without a plus, or even above average pitch.....

And the fact that you shoot down the fact that Matusz throws 4 mph harder thsn MadBum, following it up with , "He only throws 3MPH harder" IMO is petty, Matusz still threw harder by a good margin.....Your reaching for arguments here, I know your a lwayer but hell give me a break!

First, I've watched Matusz pitch in the majors, and I've read a ton of scouting reports on him. My take - and this seems backed up by others - is that his change-up is plus, his curve flashes plus, his slider is above average, and his fastball can be above average (fringe plus) when he locates it.

Second, I didn't reduce your argument to the fact that Matusz only threw 3MPH harder. You need to read more comprehensively. I said, at most, Matusz throws three MPH harder, and that's only if you assume that MB doesn't regain his velocity. Thus, my point was that you (mildly) exaggerated the claim but more importantly held a small sample size against him. While MB's velocity was apparently down in the minors this year, it was only down in the low-90s. His MLB velo (in 6 innings) was significantly lower. Hence my point about Tillman. There may be something there re: MB's velocity, but I don't think that's something we can assume.

Third, Matusz doesn't throw 4MPH harder than Bumgarner. In their time up, Matusz averaged about 3 MPH harder than Bumgarner on the fastball - 91.5 to 88.5 (you can find this on Fangraphs).

But you're likely making a mistake if you assume that this is a trait that will carry forward. (Just like it would've been a mistake to hold Tillman's down-velo game against him going forward.)

We know that - historically - MB's top-end velocity is higher than Matusz's. Even if he never regains that, there's no indication that Matusz will stay 4MPH above him.

By the way, I would rank Matusz higher than MB, too. I just think it disingenuous to say that Matusz "now throws 4MPH harder" than MB. He may have. For a week. That's not nearly enough to make the claim. The difference between the two is obviously the developed secondaries. MB hasn't made enough progress there, as you note.

By the way, what about the FIP argument re: Erbe?