Why are so many posters fooled by Coors?

[mweb]

Well I used entire by taking the averages from 30-last season. Some great players had poor seasons in their 20s, but there peaks helped hide those years.

I am not saying that these players don't have off years after 30. But when you take the average of those years they still are great.

Ok, so on a whole they had a great 30's. That's a very different thing and more realistic. I still wouldn't say great players generally have great 30's unless you don't consider injuries, fielding, and ignore players retiring and/or fading in their late 30's.

[mweb]

Well the past 3 years Holliday is 3rd in wOBA. Only behind Pujols (maybe greatest hitter of all-time) and ARod (in the top 10).

He fell to 23rd last year outside of Coors. That's likely closer to his true level.

[TyCobb]

Chipper 30-37 years give him a 146 OPS+.

Thome 30-38 years give him a 149 OPS+.

All players have off years. And they generally come in bunches their 30s. It is the average of the 30s I am looking at. Not every individual season.

Ichro is a unique ball player. Didn't bother comparing him to Holliday.

[El Gordo]

Well the past 3 years Holliday is 3rd in wOBA. Only behind Pujols (maybe greatest hitter of all-time) and ARod (in the top 10).

OK, he's got 7 more years to go. Will he still be 3rd in wOBA at 37?

[TyCobb]

He fell to 23rd last year outside of Coors. That's likely closer to his true level.

Because you say so right? Coors field is probably the worst thing to ever happen to Holliday. I am so happy he is leaving and all this Coors field crap will be put to rest.

[TyCobb]

OK, he's got 7 more years to go. Will he still be 3rd in wOBA at 37?

I wish I knew. Mainly because I would either have a time machine or have the power to see into the future.

[mweb]

Because you say so right? Coors field is probably the worst thing to ever happen to Holliday. I am so happy he is leaving and all this Coors field crap will be put to rest.

Because I'm using common sense that tells me Coors field greatly helps players out, if you want to ignore that, go ahead.

[RShack]

Coors field is probably the worst thing to ever happen to Holliday.

Man, that's like saying the goofy outside strike zone is the worst thing to happen to Maddux and Glavine...

I am so happy he is leaving and all this Coors field crap will be put to rest.

Well, I think we can agree that it will be "resolved". We just disagree about exactly which way. Only one way to find out...

[TyCobb]

Agree with you on HR/FB, not so much on IFFB. The starting point for the IFFB trend was 2006, which was obviously his career year - not to mention that 4.6% was likely unsustainable.

4.6% is definitely below anyone's norms. The problem with it is that his FB% didn't increase with his IFFB%. So with a steady FB% a larger % simply became pop ups.

[SrMeowMeow]

Great players generally stay great for their entire 30s.

Sorry, this is the worst argument ever. Right now, the only current players we consider "great" are the ones that stayed great for their entire thirties. Why not look at players who were great until their early thirties and then declined, like dozens did (hi, Andruw Jones)? Your argument is based on this line and can't be defended.

[Frobby]

Because you say so right? Coors field is probably the worst thing to ever happen to Holliday. I am so happy he is leaving and all this Coors field crap will be put to rest.

Nobody can seriously argue that Coors doesn't distort offensive stats.

Colorado 2009: .850 OPS at home, .718 on the road (normal H/A differential .037)

Colorado 2008: .804 OPS at home, .699 on the road (normal H/A differential .036)

Colorado 2007: .853 OPS at home, .730 on the road (normal H/A differential .027)

Colorado 2006: .825 OPS at home, .724 on the road (normal H/A differential .033)

Colorado 2005: .826 OPS at home, .658 on the road (normal H/A differential .030)

Take away the Coors effect and the fact that the NL is overall not as good, and Holliday only projects as a somewhat above average player in the AL.

[Wish]

I didn't realize the A's and the Cardinals play their home games at Coors

[tilgaham]

I do not understand why people are in such a tizzy over this Holliday business. If we do sign him, it won't be for an arm and a leg This is Andy McPhail we're talking about here..."good deal or no deal" Andy? Anyways...Arguing over his stats, the "Coors Effect", age related decline, etc is a bit assanine...If he sucks, we flip him for a prospect or two (see Oakland)...If he hits well then we're set. Plus, our first rounder is protected! Win Win IMHO.

[Frobby]

It isn't as simple as you think.

The reason Oakland was able to flip him so easily was because he was in the final year of his deal. The Orioles would have to pay him big money to come here (and I agree with you that AM isn't likely to do that), so much so that he will be difficult to deal (especially if he sucks, as you put it so well).

I certainly don't think he'll suck. He'll just be overpaid.

[tilgaham]

It isn't as simple as you think.

The reason Oakland was able to flip him so easily was because he was in the final year of his deal. The Orioles would have to pay him big money to come here (and I agree with you that AM isn't likely to do that), so much so that he will be difficult to deal (especially if he sucks, as you put it so well).

I understand that...However, the way people have posted in this thread it sounds like they expect Matt Holiday 2010/11 to be Andruw Jones 2008/9. I just don't see it happening. He played pretty darn well with the Cards last year (granted in his walk year), and respectable with the A's.