Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[markdublya]

I hope we get this guy, after a 30+ page thread!!

[Sports Guy]

I'm interested in stats and use them to some extent but not nearly as versed in them as many others. When you say it is unbelievable stupid to use stats to compare the two, then it seems as though you are saying that anyone who did make the comparison is being stupid. Seems a little harsh. Was it Basbeall Prospectus who makes these comparisons that others are using? Whoever it is, is a website that uses statistics heavily. Are you calling them stupid too? How come no one was beating down the door for Travis Hafner and Cleveland was able to get him for Einar Diaz? If you wait for other GM's to bang down the door there likely won't be anyone home when you get there.

Also, for someone who clamored for Hee Sop Choi, I don't recall you using the argument of "If he's so good why isn't anyone else trying to get him?"

Yes, i think it is stupid for BP to compare Shealy to Derek Lee based on a very limited number of ab's in Colorado.

I think that they just project out his stats(that he had in the majors last year) for the same age and that is how they come up with it...Hardly scientific.

Bottom line is, over a full season of ab's, Lee was putting up near 900 OPS's in a pitchers park in the majors.

Lee is a great defensive first baseman and steals 15-20 bases a year.

Shealy is not any of those things, so therefore, i see the comparison as total BS.

[Sports Guy]

Also, for someone who clamored for Hee Sop Choi, I don't recall you using the argument of "If he's so good why isn't anyone else trying to get him?"

I also wasn't giving up a top young arm for him either.

There is a reason Shealy is still in AAA....The Rockies think he is worth a top pitching prospect and obviously most teams don't feel the same way.

[RShack]

If Winston Churchill was a baseball fan, his comment on this thread might have been: "Never in history have so many said so much about 2 ballplayers whose accomplishements have been so few."

[rp0806]

If you think Shealy is capable of putting up an .850 OPS, then I'm not sure I understand the point of this argument. The comparison to Lee might be a stretch, but Shealy performing at Lee's level does seem like it's in the realm of possibility, so what's the big deal?

Is he worth Loewen? I'm not sure, but I think it's safe to assume that it's far more likely that Shealy will give the Orioles a few seasons of above average hitting than Loewen will turn into a #1 starter. So it's simply a matter of balancing the more predictable, but less valuable player versus the less predictable, but more valuable one.

[Sports Guy]

If you think Shealy is capable of putting up an .850 OPS, then I'm not sure I understand the point of this argument. The comparison to Lee might be a stretch, but Shealy performing at Lee's level does seem like it's in the realm of possibility, so what's the big deal?

Is he worth Loewen? I'm not sure, but I think it's safe to assume that it's far more likely that Shealy will give the Orioles a few seasons of above average hitting than Loewen will turn into a #1 starter. So it's simply a matter of balancing the more predictable, but less valuable player versus the less predictable, but more valuable one.

First of all, Lee is better than a 850 OPS player...He has only been below 850 once in the last 6 years. 850 is always where i think Shealy will likely top out at(not that he can't/won't do better, just going with odds)

Secondly, Lee has a much better overall skill set than Shealy.

At least with Hafner, you have a guy who is a DH, not that great defensively and not a guy who will steal 15-20 bases.

Not that i think he is Hafner either but i think that is a better comparison.

[rp0806]

First of all, Lee is better than a 850 OPS player...He has only been below 850 once in the last 6 years. 850 is always where i think Shealy will likely top out at(not that he can't/won't do better, just going with odds)

Secondly, Lee has a much better overall skill set than Shealy.

Even including last year's 1.080 OPS, Lee's career OPS is .865. So he's basically an .850-.875 kind of player. In any event, I didn't say that Shealy is likely to be as good as Lee, only that if Shealy's likely performance is in the .850 range, then the upper boundary of his performance could easily be in the .900-.950 range. (I'm not talking about defense or baserunning, just offensive performance.)

Is Shealy a terrific prospect? No. Is he likely to be a good player? Yes, and the fact that he's still in AAA does not prove otherwise.

[Sports Guy]

Even including last year's 1.080 OPS, Lee's career OPS is .865. So he's basically an .850-.875 kind of player. In any event, I didn't say that Shealy is likely to be as good as Lee, only that if Shealy's likely performance is in the .850 range, then the upper boundary of his performance could easily be in the .900-.950 range. (I'm not talking about defense or baserunning, just offensive performance.)

Is Shealy a terrific prospect? No. Is he likely to be a good player? Yes, and the fact that he's still in AAA does not prove otherwise.

What it proves is that the Rockies are asking for alot more than teams think he is worth.

[RShack]

For someone who takes 10 paragraphs to make one point this is especially amusing.

Sometimes the truth is short and pithy. Maybe I can't say it briefly very often, but I do what I can. Plus, I was mainly relying on Churchill ;-)

[El Gordo]

Yes, i think it is stupid for BP to compare Shealy to Derek Lee based on a very limited number of ab's in Colorado.

I think that they just project out his stats(that he had in the majors last year) for the same age and that is how they come up with it...Hardly scientific.

Bottom line is, over a full season of ab's, Lee was putting up near 900 OPS's in a pitchers park in the majors.

Lee is a great defensive first baseman and steals 15-20 bases a year.

Shealy is not any of those things, so therefore, i see the comparison as total BS.

On what information do you base your assessment of Shealy's defense or lack there of ?

[Sports Guy]

On what information do you base your assessment of Shealy's defense or lack there of ?

What scouts have said...Stuff in this thread...He may be good enough over there but he is not Derek Lee. If he was, he would be playign first base for someone in the majors right now.

[AgentOrange]

What scouts have said...Stuff in this thread...He may be good enough over there but he is not Derek Lee. If he was, he would be playign first base for someone in the majors right now.

I think it is unfair to say that. You have no idea if the Rockies were asking for too much for him, they may have been asking too much the whole time.

While some people on here say that the kid is already "washed up" and maxed out his potential already... They are still asking for Penn or Olson, which some believe is too much.

Plus, back a couple years ago, Helton was on the trading block, if he was traded, it wouldn't have made sense to get rid of Shealy as well. They needed a back up plan. Not to mention Helton being on the DL and having some injury problems as well as getting up there in age, they need a safety net. It is not out of the realm of possibility to think he was thier Ryan Howard.

As for the reports, I would love to see more of the negitive ones, I have however seen some like this on the board...

From Wildcard...

Here is a read on Shealy's first base defense.

From ColoradoRockies.com

"Shealy also gains confidence from the fact that he already plays a position well. His hands and footwork could make him an above-average first baseman"

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/NASA...=.jsp&c_id=col

Exhibit two:

Denverpost.com

He finally arrived at the ballpark at 5:45, took a few rushed practice cuts, drove in a run in the third inning and pulled off a Gold Glove-worth first-to- shortstop-to-first double play in the sixth.

Shealy was with the Rockies in June as a designated hitter during interleague play. Tuesday marked his first appearance as a fielder in the big leagues.

"It was definitely different, but I was pumped up for it," he said. "I take a lot of pride in my defense, and I work hard at it. That paid off tonight."

http://www.denverpost.com/portlet/ar...rticle=2892660

[Answerman]

I'm okay with Olson for Shealy as long as they take Conine. I'm worried about the ab's kicking in per Conine's automatic contract renewal. I hate the notion of spending big bucks on a 1B because any major league veteran can be moved there and play decent defense. Getting a solid hitting 1B at league minimum will give us money to spend at more difficult-to-fill positions. He will also peak with our young pitchers.

Food for thought: Will Konerko be worth $13M per year more than Shealy? Doubtful.

Make the deal.

[Fan4Life]

Lining Up For Shealy

It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight. These are all from various newspapers.

The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez. Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he's at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP. He's had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston. Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control. Actually, those first two facts aren't so random - Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye. Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.

Then there's the Orioles. Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies' request for Hayden Penn. It's said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they've been trying to do that for ages. The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35. That's not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played. He'd make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O's will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy. Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles' farm system.

It's been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix. The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy. Toronto doesn't have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.

The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have). Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma. Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit. He hasn't shown much in the Majors this season. The persistent walk problem remains. Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.

One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there's no longer a fit. Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A. Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May. So I'm thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.

Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters' environment). He's at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.

[Sports Guy]

Hayden Penn is leaps and bounds over anyone offered so far.

Hell, offering Javy Lopez is actually pretty fair compared to the offers they are getting.

JJ Johnson is as good as they have been offered....Add in Finch or Rleal...If the Rockies turn that down, oh well.