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The Great Tillman Debate


Frobby

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Whether it can be said of Hernandez depends on what you call "average" and how you define that. It's tough to have a objective discussion about something that can't be quantified.

If you're suggesting that Hernandez's ability to miss bats is no better than, say, half of the pitchers who have appeared in MLB over the past five seasons, well, I think you're wrong.

Would you call his minor league peripherals "average?"

The problem with Hernandez is that he has one above average pitch...his fastball. That fastball was able to dominate minor leaguers because of the velocity and deception. Major leaguers won't be as easily fooled, as he started to find out after his nice stretch. The only way he can be successful as a starter is if he gets a cutter, 2-seamer, or pinpoint command.

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The problem with Hernandez is that he has one above average pitch...his fastball. That fastball was able to dominate minor leaguers because of the velocity and deception. Major leaguers won't be as easily fooled, as he started to find out after his nice stretch. The only way he can be successful as a starter is if he gets a cutter, 2-seamer, or pinpoint command.

And you don't think he is working on that? Give him more time, fine, but this guy could be dominant. Great talent here.

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The problem with Hernandez is that he has one above average pitch...his fastball. ... The only way he can be successful as a starter is if he gets a cutter, 2-seamer, or pinpoint command.

And the whole point of this discussion is whether, entering his age 25 season, he is too old to add an important piece to his skillset.

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I'd like to put forth some ideas so that those who know can help me out.

In thinking over age, performance, level, and human development, does this sound reasonable?

Human brain development, especially in males does not stop until the age of 24 or 25. Therefore, when we consider a player's performance in relation to age and level of competition, until the age of 24/25, the biggest factor is physical ability and physical development. In assessing Tillman and Hernandez, I think that Tillman will not experience any further development as a pitcher until he is 24, unless he develops physically. That being the case, his ability now will stay rather static.

Hernandez, on the other hand, is prime for a big jump. Male brain development may be the catalyst that sparks a major league player's prime, which usually occurs from 26-30.

Both Hernandez and Tillman have shown the ability to succeed at very high levels in relation to their physical peers in the minors. Hernandez struggled with control and HR. The same is true of Tillman. Hernandez struck out more hitters/9, and did so over a longer stretch in the majors. I do not think that Hernandez needs to discover something new in terms of ability. His arm is good. His FB is a plus pitch, and his Curve and Change are decent. I would expect that his struggles with command to improve greatly this year. This ST he has shown a huge improvement in that area.

Furthermore, there is nothing to suggest that Hernandez cannot continue to K MLB hitters. His game log shows that he was pretty consistent all year. His GB, LD and FB tendencies are about league average. His biggest hurdle is keeping the ball in the yard on the flyballs. All the projections that I've seen show confidence that DH will continue to strike out MLB hitters.

In determining who is better now for the rotation, I would give it to whichever of the two has more ability. If the two are equal, I'd give it to Hernandez, as he has a significant advantage over Tillman due to his age. Again, age through the minor leagues, I think, is important in determining present physical ability in relation to competition, and projecting future physical ability. Age ceases to be of importance at three critical stages: 1. physical development is complete 2. intellectual development is complete 3. decline.

Is that reasonable or off base?

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The problem with Hernandez is that he has one above average pitch...his fastball. That fastball was able to dominate minor leaguers because of the velocity and deception. Major leaguers won't be as easily fooled, as he started to find out after his nice stretch. The only way he can be successful as a starter is if he gets a cutter, 2-seamer, or pinpoint command.

The single most important pitch an ML pitcher needs is a plus FB. Furthermore, there was no prolonged good or bad stretch for DH last year. It was pretty steady. He also has a curve and change, and all accounts of the change I've read are that it's good, but he needs to trust it more. DH's FB is so good, that if he gains control over it, that control makes it two pitches. If he can pitch down in the zone successfully, he will be able to elevate in order to strike out hitters, which has done very well at every level even the AL.

As for your comments earlier on Berken: he's going to be a very good MR pitcher. His stuff, however, is not as good as DH's or Tillman's. Both DH and Tillman have better stuff than Guthrie.

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The single most important pitch an ML pitcher needs is a plus FB. Furthermore, there was no prolonged good or bad stretch for DH last year. It was pretty steady. He also has a curve and change, and all accounts of the change I've read are that it's good, but he needs to trust it more. DH's FB is so good, that if he gains control over it, that control makes it two pitches. If he can pitch down in the zone successfully, he will be able to elevate in order to strike out hitters, which has done very well at every level even the AL.

As for your comments earlier on Berken: he's going to be a very good MR pitcher. His stuff, however, is not as good as DH's or Tillman's. Both DH and Tillman have better stuff than Guthrie.

I think DH needs to get his breaking stuff over the plate and down in the zone more often. Adding the 2 seamer is also going to help. He has shown without a doubt that he has been working on his repetoire this offseason. He starts today's game, and probably next Friday's game, in which he will be facing very good lineups. Vatech1994 will be at today's game and I will be very interested to read his take on where DH is at.

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Phil Niekro (0). Gaylord Perry (4). Jim Bunning (8). Orel Hershiser (0). Lew Burdette (0). David Cone (5). Tim Wakefield (0). Allie Reynolds (0). Erik Bedard (0). John Tudor (0). Cliff Lee (3).

The last three just came to mind. All the rest are pitchers who won at least 180 games. If I went to a list of pitchers who have won at least 100 games, this could go on all night.

And what you said above of Hernandez--

--could have been said about virtually all of them.

Should we make a list of the players that showed promise but never amounted to much too? Want to take a bet at which list is longer?

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I just want the guy that will help us win more games this season as our #5. DH or Tillman. Right now I can't say which will do that. I have little doubt that further down the road Tillman will be the more effective of the two, but he is very young and raw, and it may be that at his age, DH is ready to turn the corner and become and effective ML SP.

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As for your comments earlier on Berken: he's going to be a very good MR pitcher. His stuff, however, is not as good as DH's or Tillman's. Both DH and Tillman have better stuff than Guthrie.

If we're talking just fastballs, I'll take Guthrie, Berken, Tillman, then Hernandez. Movement is far more important than velocity.

Secondary stuff: Tillman, Guthrie, Hernandez, Berken.

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If we're talking just fastballs, I'll take Guthrie, Berken, Tillman, then Hernandez. Movement is far more important than velocity.

Secondary stuff: Tillman, Guthrie, Hernandez, Berken.

You have convinced me!!! You have no idea what you're talking about!!

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Should we make a list of the players that showed promise but never amounted to much too? Want to take a bet at which list is longer?

You're trying to change the issue.

The question is not whether some pitchers fail. Everybody knows that lots of pitchers fail. The question is whether a pitcher entering his age 25 season is too old to make a major adjustment and turn around his career.

You stated that that's the case -- that Hernandez is getting too old to turn things around.

I think that's silly, considering that there are brilliant examples of pitchers who looked terrible at the very same age that Hernandez is now, and who ended up having great careers. And Hernandez doesn't even have to end up with a great career to justify not writing him off. He just needs to end up being a good, solid, mid-rotation pitcher for a few years.

You talk about exceptions to the rule. There is no "rule" about whether a 24-year-old pitcher is too old to make major adjustments. And anyone who tries to apply such a rule across the board is going to end up making some huge errors. Strip the names off the career records of Gibson, Bunning, Niekro, Hershiser, Cone, etc etc... look only at their careers through the age that Hernandez is now... in every case you would be looking at a bunch of pitchers who by your standards are "...old to think he will all of sudden turn his career around and become something that most people don't think he is...a solid starter..."

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I'm not sure that's the rule. With pitchers I'm not sure there is a rule.

Odds are against him...that's my point.

Pointing out a few examples here and there of guys that have done it doesn't prove anything.

He isn't likely to be a starter based on performance, both in the majors and in the minors.

That doesn't mean things won't change for him but odds are clearly against him making it as a starter...at least a starter that you wouldn't be eager to replace.

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