The Great Tillman Debate

[mweb]

You're trying to change the issue.

The question is not whether some pitchers fail. Everybody knows that lots of pitchers fail. The question is whether a pitcher entering his age 25 season is too old to make a major adjustment and turn around his career.

You stated that that's the case -- that Hernandez is getting too old to turn things around.

I think that's silly, considering that there are brilliant examples of pitchers who looked terrible at the very same age that Hernandez is now, and who ended up having great careers. And Hernandez doesn't even have to end up with a great career to justify not writing him off. He just needs to end up being a good, solid, mid-rotation pitcher for a few years.

You talk about exceptions to the rule. There is no "rule" about whether a 24-year-old pitcher is too old to make major adjustments. And anyone who tries to apply such a rule across the board is going to end up making some huge errors. Strip the names off the career records of Gibson, Bunning, Niekro, Hershiser, Cone, etc etc... look only at their careers through the age that Hernandez is now... in every case you would be looking at a bunch of pitchers who by your standards are "...old to think he will all of sudden turn his career around and become something that most people don't think he is...a solid starter..."

Good post. Of course he still can improve quite a bit, and while the odds may be against that, it's not some huge longshot either imo.

I also don't see how Hernandez' performance this spring makes for a better case for him being a reliever than a starter. If one says that, I'm not sure what he could have done this spring to change that perception. So basically whatever perception you had before, you probably still have. That's fine, but lets not act like it's evidence of him being a BP pitcher instead of a starter.

I do think he'll likely end up in the BP for us, but that has at least as much to do with who are other starters are as it has to do with him being able to be a decent starter or not.

[TyCobb]

Odds are against him...that's my point.

Pointing out a few examples here and there of guys that have done it doesn't prove anything.

He isn't likely to be a starter based on performance, both in the majors and in the minors.

That doesn't mean things won't change for him but odds are clearly against him making it as a starter...at least a starter that you wouldn't be eager to replace.

The odds are against every pitcher.

I thought DH looked great last season. I was shock after seeing him pitch in the bigs that the general consensus for DH was him going to the BP. His stuff did not drop off late in the game especially his FB. His problem, which was huge, was the consistency of his slider. For every good slider, he throw one flat one.

DH was more than solid last season in AAA with a 12.4 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, and a 4.39 K/BB. That gave him a very nice 2.62 FIP.

[Sports Guy]

Good post. Of course he still can improve quite a bit, and while the odds may be against that, it's not some huge longshot either imo.

I also don't see how Hernandez' performance this spring makes for a better case for him being a reliever than a starter. If one says that, I'm not sure what he could have done this spring to change that perception. So basically whatever perception you had before, you probably still have. That's fine, but lets not act like it's evidence of him being a BP pitcher instead of a starter.

I do think he'll likely end up in the BP for us, but that has at least as much to do with who are other starters are as it has to do with him being able to be a decent starter or not.

Is he going 5+ innings this spring yet? Hasn't he basically just done 2-3 inning appearances?

[Sports Guy]

The odds are against every pitcher.

I thought DH looked great last season. I was shock after seeing him pitch in the bigs that the general consensus for DH was him going to the BP. His stuff did not drop off late in the game especially his FB. His problem, which was huge, was the consistency of his slider. For every good slider, he throw one flat one.

DH was more than solid last season in AAA with a 12.4 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, and a 4.39 K/BB. That gave him a very nice 2.62 FIP.

Wow...Your evaluations of a pitcher leave a lot to be desired if you thought he looked great...Even DH came out and basically said he can't be successful, as a starter, with the way he pitched last year.

[Hank Scorpio]

He's looked "great" thus far this spring, but spring doesn't count.

DH is drawing rave reviews from Red Sox announcers today, they have pointed out that his breaking pitches look much better than they did last year. They have also said that his changeup is "falling off the table." Struck out Josh Redick on a "nasty" changeup.

I didn't see one nasty changeup from DH all year last year.

[TyCobb]

Wow...Your evaluations of a pitcher leave a lot to be desired if you thought he looked great...Even DH came out and basically said he can't be successful, as a starter, with the way he pitched last year.

Out of all the starters he had the best FB. The baseball has a different seams at MLB than AAA. His slider was a 50/50 pitch. You can't put up good numbers if there is a coin toss for a hanger being thrown. Hopefully he learned to throw the slider more consistently in the off-season. I will be glad to see how Hernandez looks once a pitcher goes down or if Guts/Millwood get traded.

[Sports Guy]

Out of all the starters he had the best FB. The baseball has a different seams at MLB than AAA. His slider was a 50/50 pitch. You can't put up good numbers if there is a coin toss for a hanger being thrown. Hopefully he learned to throw the slider more consistently in the off-season. I will be glad to see how Hernandez looks once a pitcher goes down or if Guts/Millwood get traded.

How are you defining this? THe command on his fastball isn't great and the movement was marginal.

He threw it hard and at times showed a plus plus fastball but consistently, it wasn't there...and he knows it.

[TyCobb]

How are you defining this? THe command on his fastball isn't great and the movement was marginal.

He threw it hard and at times showed a plus plus fastball but consistently, it wasn't there...and he knows it.

92.9 FA-Vel

-5.7 FA- X movement

10.6 FA - Z movement

That is extremely good numbers. So good check out Lincecum FB stats last year.

92.4 FA-Vel

-3.1 FA - X movement

10.8 FA - Z movement

I guess Lincecum has marginal movement on his FB.

[Hank Scorpio]

DH is now through 5 scoreless vs. Boston.

Lots of flyballs still, but his K numbers are there.

[mweb]

Is he going 5+ innings this spring yet? Hasn't he basically just done 2-3 inning appearances?

Well they haven't wanted him to go 5+ innings. I'm just saying you shouldn't use this spring to point to him being a starter or a reliever. You have no idea if his success this spring is due to only having to pitch 2-3 innings. But since that fits what you thought before, it's easy for you to say that's the reason.

BTW, only one walk in 10 innings is encouraging for his future as a starter. Obviously is encouraging regardless of role, but considering control is one of the reasons why he may not make it as a starter, that is a plus in that matter.

Oh, and add what Hank just said to this.

[mweb]

Wow...Your evaluations of a pitcher leave a lot to be desired if you thought he looked great...Even DH came out and basically said he can't be successful, as a starter, with the way he pitched last year.

Wouldn't be much of a reliever with the way he pitched last year either imo. The slider needs to be what it's supposed to be for him to be good in either role. Apparently it has been much better this spring. If the sinker becomes a good pitch, that's also big.

[Arthur_Bryant]

He is done after five today, four hits, two BB, 6 K, 90 pitches (60 strikes). Red Sox radio guys impressed.

[Sports Guy]

Well they haven't wanted him to go 5+ innings. I'm just saying you shouldn't use this spring to point to him being a starter or a reliever. You have no idea if his success this spring is due to only having to pitch 2-3 innings. But since that fits what you thought before, it's easy for you to say that's the reason.

BTW, only one walk in 10 innings is encouraging for his future as a starter. Obviously is encouraging regardless of role, but considering control is one of the reasons why he may not make it as a starter, that is a plus in that matter.

Oh, and add what Hank just said to this.

Wouldn't be much of a reliever with the way he pitched last year either imo. The slider needs to be what it's supposed to be for him to be good in either role. Apparently it has been much better this spring. If the sinker becomes a good pitch, that's also big.

Everything(command, control, secondary pitches, etc...) is likely to be better in short stints.

[mweb]

He is done after five today, four hits, two BB, 6 K, 90 pitches (60 strikes). Red Sox radio guys impressed.

So for the spring:

DH: 5 G, 2 GS, 15 IP, 17 H, 3 HR, 20 K, 3 BB, 5 R, 5 ER.

Tillman: 5 G, 4 GS, 16.1 IP, 14 H, 3 HR, 10 K, 9 BB, 8 R, 7 ER.

[mweb]

Everything(command, control, secondary pitches, etc...) is likely to be better in short stints.

That's fine, but my point is still valid.