The Great Tillman Debate

[Hank Scorpio]

I think 95% of the Hangout would agree that Tillman probably has the higher ceiling. He's gotten all the Baseball America and BP attention, and he's been atop all the prospect lists.

I think his reputation is preceding him a little bit around here, but I tend to agree with those who say he should be in the Orioles 2010 rotation. He's got all the tools, he's got the stuff, and he's got the makeup. He needs to pitch at the major league level to improve his command, not in Norfolk.

But to me, putting Hernandez in the pen is a waste. If this year is truly about results, I would think Guthrie will be moved either to the pen or to another team unless he pulls a 180. He hasn't been good for over a year now.

[backwardsk]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-sp.schmuck28mar28,0,6421357.column

There's a better chance that Berken wins the #5 spot than Guthrie opening the season in the pen, IMO.

Serious words from Trembley there, huh? Interesting.

Tatum was Tillman's catcher the other night, correct? With the pace of the game being so off, I hope Trembley matches him up with Wieters or Moeller for his next start and see how he rebounds.

I do love this quote from Hernandez: "I just want to go out there and make it a tough decision." He definitely did that with his performance yesterday.

[Arthur_Bryant]

He needs to pitch at the major league level to improve his command, not in Norfolk.

Why?

"Chris, here's the ball. Throw low strikes, and you'll be back in Baltmore real soon."

[El Gordo]

I think Hernandez has more value to the O's in trade, as a SP, than he does as a RP. I'd like to see him get a chance to establish that value. He could turn into to young SS we need. Tillman has plenty of time and most likely will be in the rotation most of this season anyway. Wont hurt him to start it in Norfolk.

[Hank Scorpio]

Why?

"Chris, here's the ball. Throw low strikes, and you'll be back in Baltmore real soon."

Mainly because the talent level of the hitters is vastly different. You can't just pitch the same way both places and expect to be successful.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Mainly because the talent level of the hitters is vastly different. You can't just pitch the same way both places and expect to be successful.

It is less about results than about performance from pitch to pitch.

I agree that having A-Rod hit a high fastball 475 feet is a powerful object lesson. But the O's pay Mike Griffin and others to watch Tillman and tell him, "You got away with that high hard one last inning. But A-Rod probably would have hit it 475 feet."

Besides, Tillman has been up for half a season. He probably doesn't need anyone to tell him that A-Rod would have hit it a long way. He knows what it takes to succeed.

[eddie83]

Couldn't disagree more cristoner97. What good does it do to have a prospect in the major leagues if they are not ready for the major leagues? I have never understood the complaining that because someone is a prospect that they need to be in the majors to learn. If there are things that their game needs improvement with that is what the minor leagues is for. Contrary to popular opinion players can grow and improve in the minor leagues. You don't put someone in the toughest environment possible and then say go get em kid.

Tillman turns 22 in April. My gosh the kid hasn't logged 100 innings in AAA. How do his minor league numbers help him get major league hitters out? If the organization decides for him to start at AAA big deal. What does his age have to do with whether or not it is in his best interests to start out in the majors this year? You don't promote someone because they have accomplished more at an earlier age, that doesn't accomplish anything. I doubt if they decide to put Tillman in the minors it is because of stats at spring training this year. Why does a player have to be at the major league level this year to contribute next year? Nick Markakis didn't have success in the big leagues in 2006 because of his AA stats the year prior it was because he was ready for the challenge. There is not a tougher place in baseball to pitch than in this division, if he is not ready to handle it right now that is not an organizational indictment that they believe he never will. What the best decision for the present has nothing to do with down the road success.

[RShack]

1) I believe 2010 is about winning games, and setting the table for legit contention in 2011. However, you still do not believe you can contend as an Organization in 2010. If you can not contend this year, you still want to give as much Major League time as possible to the players you will be relying on to help you contend in 2011.

[details deleted]

My take all Spring has been that the O's have been providing lip-service to the 'competition,' in order to further motivate Tillman, and help him avoid becoming complacent. I hope I have been reading those tea-leaves correctly.

I think you (and others) are making way too big a deal about this. First off, the thing about winning games in 2010 vs. prepping for 2011 is not a simple, black-and-white, either-or issue. Improving the team's performance this year is important, and we don't need a guy who's using his whole pitch count to get through 4 or 5 IP costing us games when we go through that insane early-season stretch vs. you-know-who. Secondly, the idea that it'll be bad for CT to pitch for a while at Norfolk doesn't add up. You may be right about the lip-service thing to further motivate CT or you might not be. Either way, there's nothing wrong with telling a kid-P he's gotta earn his spot on the big league roster. No matter where CT starts the season, he's gonna spend most of it with the O's. IMO, making a huge deal out of this is confusing "important" with "urgent". I agree that it's important that CT get a whole bunch of big-league IP this year. I disagree with the idea that the O's having him spend his 22nd birthday with NOR is a huge deal. It's not. All in all, this boils down to a relatively marginal judgment call, not a huge thing.

[Lucky Jim]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-sp.schmuck28mar28,0,6421357.column

There's a better chance that Berken wins the #5 spot than Guthrie opening the season in the pen, IMO.

Serious words from Trembley there, huh? Interesting.

I hate quotes like this from Trembley, and they're the main source of any lack of confidence I have in him going forward.

What we know: it's spring training, and we've had Guthrie and Millwood getting shelled, and - until yesteday - DH had given up more hits than innings and a HR ever 5 innings. Suddenly, Tillman has a slow, rocky third inning and that's a "gamechanger"? Clearly, you want your pitchers to work quickly, but I think Trembley has a tendency to take something small (sample size) (see Wigginton hustling a double in ST last year for another example) and make some claim to finding profundity in it.

I'm glad DH pitched well. And I'm glad his slider - which was non-existent at the MLB level last year - is back. But this "holding" Tillman accountable thing by the O's is some ham-handed psychology. He's done nothing but work hard and excel. A week ago, Tillman gave up two hits in five innings versus that same Red Sox team. Of course, Trembley wasn't there, so I suppose that doesn't count.

All of that said, I think that Tillman is still pitching up in the zone too much, and he needs to command his FB better. But let's not act as if a handful of ST innings between DH and Tillman are a something substantial.

[eddie83]

The flaw in your argument is in your first sentence. You ask what good does it do to have a prospect in the Majors, if he is not ready.

By that sentence alone, the rest of your argument is meaningless. By what Tillman has already done at the AA, AAA, and ML levels - there is no doubt the is ready for the Majors. (note being ready for the Majors does not mean he is ready to meet his full potential).

If you do not believe Tillman is ready for the Majors, but you believe Hernandez is; that is a curious argument. Basically what you would be saying is that even though Tillman had numbers just as good as Hernandez at AA, AAA, and the Majors (all the while being younger); Hernandez is more ready for the Majors in 2010 because he has had a slightly better Spring.

I never said a player had to be the ML level this year to contribute next-year. I said that if you want to contend in 2011 (and that should be the plan) that you are more likely to contribute if the players you are planning on counting on, gain as much as experience as possible this year.

The Major Leagues isn't a dumping ground for prospects. You are trying to win games. How in the world do you know whether he is ready for the majors or not? Getting AAA hitters out doesn't equate with getting MLB hitters out. Using that logic why did Garrett Olson fail so bad?

Every year the same argument is used around here.

Team isn't expected to contend

equals prospects should be at the major league level to gain experience

You can't get better at the major league level handing jobs to people because they are higher ceiling prospects. People complained that Wieters should of been called up in 2008. He wasn't and put up modest numbers last year, that doesn't mean he isn't a big part of the team now.

[SilentJames]

I hate quotes like this from Trembley, and they're the main source of any lack of confidence I have in him going forward.

What we know: it's spring training, and we've had Guthrie and Millwood getting shelled, and - until yesteday - DH had given up more hits than innings and a HR ever 5 innings. Suddenly, Tillman has a slow, rocky third inning and that's a "gamechanger"? Clearly, you want your pitchers to work quickly, but I think Trembley has a tendency to take something small (sample size) (see Wigginton hustling a double in ST last year for another example) and make some claim to finding profundity in it.

I'm glad DH pitched well. And I'm glad his slider - which was non-existent at the MLB level last year - is back. But this "holding" Tillman accountable thing by the O's is some ham-handed psychology. He's done nothing but work hard and excel. A week ago, Tillman gave up two hits in five innings versus that same Red Sox team. Of course, Trembley wasn't there, so I suppose that doesn't count.

All of that said, I think that Tillman is still pitching up in the zone too much, and he needs to command his FB better. But let's not act as if a handful of ST innings between DH and Tillman are a something substantial.

You know, we either want an honest hardnosed manager - or we don't. you either want Earl Weaver, or you don't.

Not really singling you out hear or anything, it is something that crops up all the time.

[Lucky Jim]

You know, we either want an honest hardnosed manager - or we don't. you either want Earl Weaver, or you don't.

Not really singling you out hear or anything, it is something that crops up all the time.

This has nothing to do with "hard-nosed" or being Weaver-like. It's about misreading a situation and over-estimating the importance of a small sample.

Weaver treated everyone the same, btw. Trembley does not. And never has.

[SilentJames]

This has nothing to do with "hard-nosed" or being Weaver-like. It's about misreading a situation and over-estimating the importance of a small sample.

Weaver treated everyone the same, btw. Trembley does not. And never has.

Sorry, but you don't know it is a small sample size. He is referencing one thing, but these could very well be things that happen constantly through camp over and over and over again. you don't see the practices, DT does.

[Lucky Jim]

Sorry, but you don't know it is a small sample size. He is referencing one thing, but these could very well be things that happen constantly through camp over and over and over again. you don't see the practices, DT does.

I'm sure keeping the pace of the game up is something that happens in side sessions. Thanks for clarifying.

[SilentJames]

I'm sure keeping the pace of the game up is something that happens in side sessions. Thanks for clarifying.

There have been a lot of things that DT sees that we don't see. Even then, where in the article does Dave say that the performance CT put out is having any bearing on any type of decision?

Trembley was talking about one start, nowhere does he go off on any sort of discussion about how how Tillman is now out because of that one start.

Schmuck even said himself he is "reading between the lines". This whole debate is much ado about nothing. Tillman is probably still going to be the fifth starter and DH will probably start in the bullpen.