A disturbing trend in the FO

[BaltimoreTerp]

I honestly don't think you could make a valid determination on Roberts' value vs his potential at that time last year...so, I would not have even thought of dealing him.

Plus the idea of trading a cheap, producing baseball player for cheap, unlikely-to-produce now baseball players simply based on "value" is simply ludicrus.

There is a reason why every team in baseball would be all over trading for a guy like Roberts. And if we asked for similar players to Roberts around baseball we would hear the laughter even after the dial tone started.

[Tx Oriole]

Sapper you have to be careful when you trade the players you listed. I see no reason to have traded Javy, Tejada after they had put up the numbers they did. We have to keep some of these guys to build a team around. Tejada in my mind is that player along with Mora. What if the O's had traded Tejada for Prior? It would have been the biggest screw up in O's history.

[Sports Guy]

Do you guys think the A's wish they did the BRob for Harden deal a few years back?

[Sapper]

I don't think anyone advocated doing this forever, you're putting words into Sapper's mouth there. He was saying to begin a true rebuilding process this is how you jump start it.

It is an interesting debate though to consider when or when not to trade a player. What mode your team is in (contending, rebuilding, etc.), and how that affects the value vs. potential debate. Now of course hindsight's 20/20. Making these decisions in the present is not nearly as clear as Sapper made it out to be, they're not easy ones even in hindsight (e.g. Bedard).

I'd say that decision is tough for guys like Bedard and Roberts but easy in terms of guys like Mora, Javy, Tejada and Ryan. None of those guys will be here when we're ready to contend. And their value is falling (instantly, in the case of Ryan).

I'd cut the FO some slack on the tough ones if they'd at least make the obvious happen.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Sapper you have to be careful when you trade the players you listed. I see no reason to have traded Javy, Tejada after they had put up the numbers they did. We have to keep some of these guys to build a team around. Tejada in my mind is that player along with Mora. What if the O's had traded Tejada for Prior? It would have been the biggest screw up in O's history.

See, logical thought that actually sees baseball as baseball.

You can't just trade everyone good away. That is bad business, and it is bad baseball.

[Mashed Potatoes]

I'd say that decision is tough for guys like Bedard and Roberts but easy in terms of guys like Mora, Javy, Tejada and Ryan. None of those guys will be here when we're ready to contend. And their value is falling (instantly, in the case of Ryan).

I'd cut the FO some slack on the tough ones if they'd at least make the obvious happen.

Well Ryan's an obvious one. And its been well discussed that we want to move Javy, but there's just no interest (although there may be if we pay some of his salary). Tejada and Mora are not as easy, and this gets back to what mode the team is in. If we're rebuilding than Mora goes for sure. If Tejada goes, Mora has to go. But a case can be made for sticking with Miggy even in rebuilding mode. Plus I heart Miggy, which makes the situation even more complicated.

Tx and BTerp, if the idea was to get Prior in order to get Tex, then it would not have been a screw up at all.

[Sapper]

Sapper you have to be careful when you trade the players you listed. I see no reason to have traded Javy, Tejada after they had put up the numbers they did.

Well it's simple: We were never going to compete in 2006. So why keep them around when you can build a stronger team for 2007, 2008, 2009 and beyond?

We have to keep some of these guys to build a team around.

And so when is this "rebuilding" project that has been going on for 9 years going to end? You can't half-ass rebuilding or you get never-ending mediocrity.

Tejada in my mind is that player along with Mora.

Mora is declining and it was obvious LAST year. I posted it numerous times along with the numbers to support it. Tejada doesn't want to be here and is going through the motions. Who cares if we have an ALL-STAR on a sucky team? We still suck. I'd rather have 5 all-stars in 2009 than one in 2006.

What if the O's had traded Tejada for Prior? It would have been the biggest screw up in O's history.

Who said I would have traded him for Prior? Did we really need more young pitching or did we need young positional talent? And I'd get more than one good prospect at least for Tejada. His value warranted it. Just because our FO couldn't get a good deal done doesn't mean one couldn't be made.

[davearm]

This theme is starting to get REALLY old for me: Holding onto players too long instead of trading for valuable young players.

Guys I SURELY would have traded a long time ago when their value was high:

Mora

Lopez

Lopez

Ryan

Tejada

others I may have traded last year while their value was high (and if you can search that far back here, you'll see I suggested trading these guys last year):

Roberts

Bedard

This team will never get better unless we start taking advantage of other teams' farm systems in addition to our own. Let them get Glenn Davis'ed for a change.

Well as somebody above said, hindsight is 20/20, Sapper.

What would be much more enlightening (IMO) would be for you to tell us which guys currently on the O's you think the team should "sell high" on.

Tejada is the obvious choice.

Chris Ray?

Hayden Penn?

Nick Markakis?

Any/all of those guys could be at their peak value right now.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Well as somebody above said, hindsight is 20/20, Sapper.

What would be much more enlightening (IMO) would be for you to tell us which guys currently on the O's you think the team should "sell high" on.

Tejada is the obvious choice.

Chris Ray?

Hayden Penn?

Nick Markakis?

Any/all of those guys could be at their peak value right now.

Plus, I guess the Cardinals should sell high on Pujols, the Twins on Mauer and Liriano, the Rangers on Texieria, etc.

[bigbird]

I disagree with Sapper. Some players it's better to hold on to then allow them to walk. I know we haven't signed Ryan Adams yet but does anyone believe we could have received 2 players with ceilings as high as Pedro Beato and Ryan Adams it we traded Ryan at the deadline 2005?

I'm more concerned we hold on to our suspects too long and get squat in return.

[Sapper]

Well as somebody above said, hindsight is 20/20, Sapper.

What would be much more enlightening (IMO) would be for you to tell us which guys currently on the O's you think the team should "sell high" on.

Tejada is the obvious choice.

Chris Ray?

Hayden Penn?

Nick Markakis?

Any/all of those guys could be at their peak value right now.

Hindsight? Anyone around here should be able to tell I wanted a firesale way back at least to October. Here's the last quote the system will pull up for me:

This winter was a huge wasted opportunity to break the "mediocrity cycle". We needed a rebuild. We've got a rotation that really can be good in a couple of seasons. Where are the players that will be in their prime in the other positions that will also be peaked at the same time? They're not there and we're not finding them. Mora is great. Javy is a good player. Conine might even be alright. But these guys will never factor into a contending Orioles team. So why waste time and resources on these guys instead of finding the "next" guys who may give us a chance to contend?

Sapper 3/4/06

The archive won't let you go back any further. But if it did, you see I'm being consistent.

Oh, and there's no way I'd trade Ray, Markakis or Penn. In my estimation, I don't think its clear their value far exceeds their potential. These are the types of guys we should be getting MORE of.

[RShack]

So I guess you must be OK with everything then, right?

You're happy we held onto Javy? Extended Mora for 20 years at 8M per year? Happy that we let Ryan walk for nothing?

You're right. That's all I'm talking about: Treating baseball like the stock market. Our FO's is so smart. You can tell by their track record of success.

/sarcasm

No, I am not OK with everything. There are things I am very happy about, there are other things that have me PO'd, and there are still other things that we can't tell until we see what happens.

However, I do know that your *let's write-off the next couple years and rebuild* idea is one that rarely works, and is something that franchises who are consistently good just don't do. It is not a formula for long term success. Long term success is a hard thing to achieve, and it is not attained by simplistic one-dimensional formulas like the one you advocate. But having a simplistic one-dimensional formula does make it easy to be a sniper who says "I told you so" a lot.

Although, in fairness, you have been mostly silent of late, and before that you had a pretty good stretch of being reasonable.

[NCRaven]

Roberts and Bedard are young veterans that you build around, not trade away. Melvin Mora is a solid veteran that can bat 2nd or 3rd in your lineup, play 3B or any OF position and wants to be here. Again, why trade away such a player when you aren't likely to get equal value in return? Give me one specific trade that another team offered that you would have taken. What value did a league average pitcher like Lopez have for any team other than us, for whom league average might just as well mean Cy Young?

How do you know one single team offered a trade for Roberts, Mora or Bedard that anyone here or in the O's FO would have considered equal value and filling a need for this team? And, yes, I understand that part of the FO's job is building interest in their own players. Again, how do you know they didn't try and just decided it was better to stay with them than trade the players away for subpar offers?

And finally, why am I not surprised that you didn't start a thread titled, Exciting Trends in the O's Front Office about the signing of Hernandez, trades for Benson and Patterson, etc.?

[Sapper]

I disagree with Sapper. Some players it's better to hold on to then allow them to walk. I know we haven't signed Ryan Adams yet but does anyone believe we could have received 2 players with ceilings as high as Pedro Beato and Ryan Adams it we traded Ryan at the deadline 2005?

I'm more concerned we hold on to our suspects too long and get squat in return.

Seriously you think it was wise not to trade Tejada, Javy or Mora?

[billyc123]

Well as somebody above said, hindsight is 20/20, Sapper.

What would be much more enlightening (IMO) would be for you to tell us which guys currently on the O's you think the team should "sell high" on.

Tejada is the obvious choice.

Chris Ray?

Hayden Penn?

Nick Markakis?

Any/all of those guys could be at their peak value right now.

Well put, davearm. And that's sort of the point, IMO, of those objecting to Sapper's ideas in this thread. It seems ludicrous to move Ray or Markakis right now. Some think maybe it makes sense to move Penn. Not me.

Also, what were we ever offered for Tejada that would have made sense? That strikes me as the reason that he's still an Oriole. Remember, the FO was actively trying to trade him last offseason. I don't know how one could have justified moving him before he asked for the trade, given what our line-up would look like w/o him.