Orioles... The Likeliest First-Round Candidates

[Greg Pappas]

Greg, you don't think Cox will be in that equation? I would think since he's the most polished college bat, the O's would have their eye on him...

Sorry for the delay... It's very possible that Cox is among the guys we're eying at three, but Machado appears to be their guy. It's quite possible that Cox becomes a great pick for whomever takes him, especially if he develops power at the pro level. It would not be a stretch -in the least- to find the O's like him. Just because I've yet to see Cox linked to us, certainly doesn't preclude it. I and most others rate Cox a bit lower than third overall, but all that matters is what order Jordan ranks the prospects.

[Greg Pappas]

You need to give this one a rest Trea...ain't happenin. You don't draft a mid-late 1st round pick at #3.

Cox isn't considered a "mid-late 1st round pick"... at all.

[theobird]

Sorry for the delay... It's very possible that Cox is among the guys we're eying at three, but Machado appears to be their guy. It's quite possible that Cox becomes a great pick for whomever takes him, especially if he develops power at the pro level. It would not be a stretch -in the least- to find the O's like him. Just because I've yet to see Cox linked to us, certainly doesn't preclude it. I and most others rate Cox a bit lower than third overall, but all that matters is what order Jordan ranks the prospects.

Just wondering Greg, do you think the Orioles would take Colon at # 3 if Taillon is gone? Is he even in the area of #3 talent. It just seems to me that would be a good, smart pick. From everything I hear, he is a ML ready defensive player now, with the projection of being a solid hitter with gap power. Your take?

[Greg Pappas]

Thanks Greg.

I have a feeling that Jordan has settled on basically what he's "supposed to" pick. I doubt if he surprises this year. I think his job is riding on this draft and rightfully so. He'll do the "safe" pick and go with either Taillon or Machado.

All I care about is whether the 1-3 pick is a franchise changer. I'm not sold on either of those 2 guys. The hype isn't matching up with the results.

Just a hunch fellas, FWIW.

I'm curious as to what gives you the indication that Machado hasn't lived up to the hype? He's exceeded -by all accounts- his pre-season expectations and vaulted into near-elite status.

From what I've read, teams are just as likely to get the best(second best) player in the draft at pick 20 as pick 2.

Pomeranz walk rate is scary for a "developed" arm. Folty might be the best of all of them, but he'd be a "reach" no? Our (O's fans) lot is to take the next best big thing that conventional wisdom says we should.

Would you rather have Matt Cain or Adam Loewen right now? Wade Townsend or Jared Weaver or Phil Hughes? Billy Rowell or Joe Jordan greatest miss? Matt Hobgood or A.) B.) C.) D.) or E.)?

I'm worried. None of us will know for months whether it's a "great" pick.

Where did you read that? That's "out there" for me.

[Greg Pappas]

Just wondering Greg, do you think the Orioles would take Colon at # 3 if Taillon is gone? Is he even in the area of #3 talent. It just seems to me that would be a good, smart pick. From everything I hear, he is a ML ready defensive player now, with the projection of being a solid hitter with gap power. Your take?

I personally have Colon rated fourth, so I am a believer in his skill-set. I think he's about as safe a player as you'll find in the draft, and though scouts are now 'wowed' by his tools, he -much like Dustin Pedroia- should be a very good pro. He very well may wind up at second base, though I believe he can stick quite successfully at short. Either way, he's a darn good player. I think most 'draft experts' rate Colon somewhere from 7th to 12th overall, so three may be a bit of a stretch. My philosophy is fairly simply... I take the very best available player on my board when my turn comes. If Colon is that guy, take him. But for me, Machado has much more upside, and anyone outside Harper/Taillon/Machado would disappoint me.

[Avsfan]

Cox isn't considered a "mid-late 1st round pick"... at all.

I think he's closer to 10 than to 3. He isn't in the category of Tallion or Machado.

[theobird]

My hope is that the O's take Christian Colon in the first round, and Rutledge in round three. If Rutledge somehow would fall to us at three, I take him. This draft could then have gone a long way toward solving our middle infield issues down the road. After that they should turn their attention to the over slot guys, and pay up.

[Greg Pappas]

I think he's closer to 10 than to 3. He isn't in the category of Tallion or Machado.

Cox is generally regarded to be around 6-8th, but regardless, that's not what you said. You said "mid-late 1st", and implied JTrea was silly for suggesting it.

[Greg Pappas]

My hope is that the O's take Christian Colon in the first round, and Rutledge in round three. If Rutledge somehow would fall to us at three, I take him. This draft could then have gone a long way toward solving our middle infield issues down the road. After that they should turn their attention to the over slot guys, and pay up.

Most indications are that they will take either Taillon or Machado. Time will tell, as the 'industry experts' have been wrong plenty of times before.

[Avsfan]

Cox is generally regarded to be around 6-8th, but regardless, that's not what you said. You said "mid-late 1st", and implied JTrea was silly for suggesting it.

He is...as Jim Callis stated the other day too. It'd be foolish to think of someone like Cox @ #3, especially with the probability of being up there next year too.

[JTrea81]

Sorry for the delay... It's very possible that Cox is among the guys we're eying at three, but Machado appears to be their guy. It's quite possible that Cox becomes a great pick for whomever takes him, especially if he develops power at the pro level. It would not be a stretch -in the least- to find the O's like him. Just because I've yet to see Cox linked to us, certainly doesn't preclude it. I and most others rate Cox a bit lower than third overall, but all that matters is what order Jordan ranks the prospects.

Greg you really think we'll take a Boras client? I've heard his bonus demands are going to be $7-9 million.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg you really think we'll take a Boras client? I've heard his bonus demands are going to be $7-9 million.

Yes I do. Matt Wieters being one example.

[Greg Pappas]

He is...as Jim Callis stated the other day too. It'd be foolish to think of someone like Cox @ #3, especially with the probability of being up there next year too.

Making the point that you disagree with Trea that Cox would be a viable pick is fine, but you erroneously implied it was because Cox was a mid-late 1st round pick. Unsure why you don't admit to that. Again, I understand you feeling Cox isn't worth the pick at three.

[JTrea81]

Yes I do. Matt Wieters being one example.

True, but Duquette was instrumental in that as he met with Boras before the draft.

I'm not sure if MacPhail has had those discussions with Boras. Andy seemed to be pretty hands off on that stuff, so Jordan may take him, but MacPhail may not sign him, so we could wind up with pick #4 in 2011.

[section18]

MSN today posted the following from Scout.com;

2010 MLB First Round Mock Draft

Taillon to the Orioles? I prefer the college players but everyone seems to really think Taillon is going to be a #1 pitcher someday. Any of the first three would be okay with me. I wish we could make a deal with the Nationals (one sided in their favor) and have them pass on Harper and another deal with the Pirates (one sided again in their favor) and they also pass on Harper and he falls to us at #3 and then we get Anthony Rendon in 2011 with the #1 pick in the draft. Harper and Rendon would be fantastic. It's time something good happens to the Orioles.

By Mark J. Anderson Jr.

TigsTown.com

Posted Jun 6, 2010

Mocking the MLB Draft is an intense process that isn’t as clear cut as what the NFL sees. Tons of variables come into play with 50 rounds to consider. Money and slotting plays a huge factor. Some teams play it safe while others hope for a vaulted ceiling.

Minor league baseball analyst Mark Anderson spoke with scouting departments across the league to provide insight on how the opening stanza of the 2010 First-Year Player Draft will go down.

1. Washington Nationals

Bryce Harper

Community College of Southern Nevada

Position: Catcher

Harper is clearly the top talent in the draft, and one of the most impressive power prospects in memory. After getting the consensus top pitching prospect in memory last year with the selection of Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals won’t pass on another face-of-the-franchise type talent; no matter the price tag.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

Manny Machado

Brito (Fla.) H.S.

Position: Shortstop

The Pirates have a tough decision between Machado and stud right-hander Jameson Taillon. The latest word is that they are leaning toward Machado as their shortstop of the future. Some rumblings also indicate he could be a bit easier to sign than Taillon, which plays to the Pirates tendencies as well.

3. Baltimore Orioles

Jameson Taillon

The Woodlands (Tex.) H.S.

Position: RHP

The perfect situation sits on the table for the Orioles. All they have to do is sit back and wait to see what lands in their lap. After the top three players, there is a fair drop-off to the next tier, and the Orioles will jump all over Taillon is he is here. Even with a wealth of young pitching coming up through the system, Taillon could sit atop their rotation for many years.

4. Kansas City Royals

Yasmani Grandal

Miami

Position: Catcher

The Royals and Grandal agreed to a pre-draft ‘deal’ to allow them to select him at number four with some confidence in the bonus number. It is believed that this deal, which will likely result in a slot or below-slot bonus, may allow the Royals to be aggressive with over-slot deals later in the draft.

5. Cleveland Indians

Chris Sale

Florida Gulf Coast

Position: LHP

The Indians have Drew Pomeranz and Sale rated side-by-side atop their draft board, and they will be happy to take whichever player is sitting here at number five. Sale gives them a high ceiling left-hander that could move pretty quickly through the system. Some sources have Zack Cox in play here, but he is likely a long shot for the Indians at this position.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks

Matt Harvey

North Carolina

Position: RHP

Arizona is a late entrant into the mix for Harvey, and nobody can blame them with the raw stuff he brings to the table. They’ve been relatively aggressive in the draft before, and though Harvey will have a hefty price tag, he would be a good get.

7. New York Mets

Christian Colon

Cal State Fullerton

Position: Shortstop

The Mets are notorious for going cheap at the top of the draft, and they have largely settled on a college bat. Colon should come at slot money, and he’s a solid player who should stay up the middle. The Mets may need a replacement for Jose Reyes at short, and if Colon is moved to second base, that is a glaring need in the organization as well.

8. Houston Astros

Zack Cox

Arkansas

Position: Third Base

Cox could come off the board on pick before this slot with the Mets going with the best college bat available. If he is still on the board, the Astros could use the infusion of talent. Outfielder Michael Choice is also being discussed at this pick.

9. San Diego Padres

Drew Pomeranz

Mississippi

Position: LHP

With Grandal going to the Royals early, there aren’t many natural fits for the high-upside Pomeranz, though there should be. Even though the Padres really like Kolbrin Vitek here, and would be eager to pop him, they can’t pass on the powerful left arm of Pomeranz with him dropping to the back of the top ten.

10. Oakland Athletics

Deck McGuire

Georgia Tech

Position: RHP

Michael Choice is also seriously in play here, but if McGuire falls this far, the A’s won’t be able to pass on his package. He doesn’t have the pure upside of some of the other pitchers in the top half of the first round