An Awful Lot Went Right for the Red Sox This Year

[Frobby]

I'm just perusing the Red Sox team stats, and marvelling at how much went right for them.

Of their 9 regulars, all 9 played in 130+ games. As best as I can tell, Wily Mo Pena and Doug Mirabelli were the only two Red Sox hitters to go on the DL all year. Manny Ramirez missed some time late in the year, but never went on the DL.

Among the starting pitchers, the Opening Day rotation made 140 starts. Only Schilling missed significant time due to injury. Tavarez eventually was pulled from the rotation.

In the bullpen, only Brendan Donnelly and Joel Piniero suffered injuries.

All in all, the Red Sox have a great team, but they also have been very fortunate in 2007.

[wildcard]

A lot normally goes right when a team is deep in talent and has management that make the moves that are required to stay on top.

Boston had some bad luck:

Pineiro started the year as closer.

Lugo hit for a 648 OPS

Drew stunk so bad a times the Bosox fans want to send him back to the NL.

Manny missed 30 homer and 100 RBI for the first time in a decade. He only had 20 homers.

What is kind of unreal to me is how Ellsbury came up and play better then he had in the minor. And the Sox 1st rounder (Bucholz) actually performed great in the first try in the majors. Unlike the O's prospects.

Sometimes you make your own luck by have a good organization and spending tons of money.

[Ruzious]

A NY fan at work told me the reason the Sawx won was because of chemistry. Maybe that combined with health. Cuz looking at their roster, they're a decent team, but they're not real impressive.

[JTrea81]

The Sox won because of their pitching and Mike Lowell pretty much carried their hitting for most of the season, and then Ortiz finally got hot down the stretch. Delcarmen, Okajima and Lopez were lights out in the pen, not to mention Papelbon. DiceK didn't pitch well enough to justify his contract but he still pitched decent enough to make a difference in the #2 spot.

[Boy Howdy]

The Sox won because they led the American League in ERA and defensive efficiency & ranked third in the league in runs scored.

Their hitters walked more than any AL team, and they also paced the circuit in doubles. Their pitchers surrendered the fewest hits and racked up the third-most strikeouts.

Their closer blew three saves all year, they had the majors only 20-game winner, and -though everybody talks about A-Rod's monster year- David Ortiz trailed him in OPS by only 0.001.

Whenever I hear about "chemistry" now, I wonder if they're talking about PED's or guys holding hands on the team bus singing Kumbayah. Winning is the single most important ingredient in clubhouse chemistry.

Give me an Indians - D-Backs World Series!

[Mark Carver]

And that trade for Eric Gagne worked out great...

[sorrycharlie]

They didn't win because of chemistry. They won because, as Bill Simmons has said many times, they can take expensive risks and have them not hurt them if they don't pay off.

Examples include Lugo, Drew, Gagne, Matt Clement...if we signed Drew, and he played like he did for them this year, it would have crippled the middle of their order. Not so in Boston. Money buys depth, depth gives you the ability to shake off busts as if they were nothing.

[Frobby]

Nobody has responded to Frobby's original point. The Red Sox enjoyed amazing health this year. Last year, they had terrible injury problems. They finished 3rd last year and won the division this year. If anyone thinks that is a coincidence, than you just aren't paying attention.

Before anyone goes there, they had 1 positional player under the age of 27 (2once Ellsbury came up) and 10 over the age of 30. Preparation and depth are necessary without a doubt, but the teams that win do so because they have skill, depth, AND health. Teams rarely win when they have injuries.

The Orioles weren't particularly talented this year (our best case was likely around 85 or 86 wins), but if you could magically supplant the injuries the Orioles suffered on the Red Sox, Indians, etc...., none of those teams would have come close to making the play-offs.

You have made my point better than I did. And you are right that, just as they have had very good luck with injuries this year, they had very poor luck with them last year. Last year they had only 5 regulars who played in 130 games; this year it's 9. Last year their Opening Day rotation made 108 starts; this year it's 140. I think it's pretty fair to say that the Red Sox's luck with injuries in 2006 was about the same as the Orioles' luck in 2007. Of course, they still won 86 games in an unlucky year; we won 69. Logic dictates that, even if the O's had good luck with injuries in 2007, we still probably would have fallen short of .500.

[square634]

Lugo hit for a 648 OPS

Best case, he was probably a 750 OPS player. I agree he somewhat underperformed, but this is a blip on their butt at best

Drew stunk so bad a times the Bosox fans want to send him back to the NL.

He ended up with an 800 OPS

Manny missed 30 homer and 100 RBI for the first time in a decade. He only had 20 homers.

He ended up with an 881 OPS

Your best examples of them having some bad luck include an 800 OPS hitter and a 900 OPS hitter. Yeh, they had it really rough.

Those numbers are still vastly below expectations for those three players. In other words, the O's aren't the only ones who have individual players who fluctuate from year to year (like Ramon Hernandez this year). That is not the same as injuries, but it is another factor in luck as well.

[wildcard]

Is this response tongue-in-cheek? You wrote that Boston had some bad luck and then your examples are:

Pineiro started the year as closer. No, he didn't. He was signed to fill the role but Papelbon had been put back in the role by the middle of spring training.

Lugo hit for a 648 OPS

Best case, he was probably a 750 OPS player. I agree he somewhat underperformed, but this is a blip on their butt at best

Drew stunk so bad a times the Bosox fans want to send him back to the NL.

He ended up with an 800 OPS

Manny missed 30 homer and 100 RBI for the first time in a decade. He only had 20 homers.

He ended up with an 881 OPS

Your best examples of them having some bad luck include an 800 OPS hitter and a 900 OPS hitter. Yeh, they had it really rough.

Nobody has responded to Frobby's original point. The Red Sox enjoyed amazing health this year. Last year, they had terrible injury problems. They finished 3rd last year and won the division this year. If anyone thinks that is a coincidence, than you just aren't paying attention.

Before anyone goes there, they had 1 positional player under the age of 27 (2once Ellsbury came up) and 10 over the age of 30. Preparation and depth are necessary without a doubt, but the teams that win do so because they have skill, depth, AND health. Teams rarely win when they have injuries.

The Orioles weren't particularly talented this year (our best case was likely around 85 or 86 wins), but if you could magically supplant the injuries the Orioles suffered on the Red Sox, Indians, etc...., none of those teams would have come close to making the play-offs.

No tongue in cheek about it.

My point was the Boston is deep in talent and spends money and makes moves to overcome problems.

1) Yes, they spend $4M for Pineiro to be their closer. But they were deep enough to have Papelbon to return to the closer spot.

2) Yes, Lugo hit a 100 Ops points lower than normal. And yes they were deep enough in hitters to overcome it. That makes it a blip in their butt.

3) They paid Drew $14M for a Millar or Huff year. Just because he hit for almost an 1100 OPS in Sept does not mean he had a good year. I don't see anyone cutting Huff any slack because he had a good August.

4) The Boston offense has been built around Ortiz and Manny hitting for a 1000 OPS for the last 4 years. So when Manny falls to 20 homer while they are paying him $17M per year, it is not what Boston expected. Of course Manny is making up for it in the playoffs.

However my point was that Boston is deep enough to make up for any dropoffs from some of its players.

[Mad Mark]

Having Scrooge McDuck's vault at your disposal is never a bad thing.

Remember when we didn't want Mike Lowell as part of a Beckett deal? There's a guy who (at least for a while) has gotten his career back on track.

[nadecir]

The Red Sox had some injuries this year. They lost Matt Clement for the year, they lost Brendan Donnelly for the year in early June, and they missed starts from Schilling and Lester.

The big difference between the Red Sox and the Orioles is that the Sox has quality depth to replace their injured players.

The Sox go out and get Dice-K after losing Clement. The Sox called up 25 year old Manny Delcarmen when Branden Donnelly goes on the DL, and Delcarmen pitches well. They replace an ineffective Joel Pineiro with Javier Lopez. They get 21 starts, with very good numbers, from Kason Gabbard, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester, all of whom are under 25. Jacob Ellsbury, another player under 25, hits .353 with a .903 OPS in 116 at bats, which helps replace the Manny Ramirez lost at-bats due to injury.

Maybe the Orioles did experience more injuries than the Red Sox this year, but our players called up to replace the injured players weren't nearly as good as the Red Sox replacements. Compare the Sox players mentioned above to the likes of Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, and the position players we called up, and it's easy to say the Red Sox have a lot more quality depth than the Orioles.

[srh523]

The Red Sox had some injuries this year. They lost Matt Clement for the year, they lost Brendan Donnelly for the year in early June, and they missed starts from Schilling and Lester.

The big difference between the Red Sox and the Orioles is that the Sox has quality depth to replace their injured players.

The Sox go out and get Dice-K after losing Clement. The Sox called up 25 year old Manny Delcarmen when Branden Donnelly goes on the DL, and Delcarmen pitches well. They replace an ineffective Joel Pineiro with Javier Lopez. They get 21 starts, with very good numbers, from Kason Gabbard, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester, all of whom are under 25. Jacob Ellsbury, another player under 25, hits .353 with a .903 OPS in 116 at bats, which helps replace the Manny Ramirez lost at-bats due to injury.

Maybe the Orioles did experience more injuries than the Red Sox this year, but our players called up to replace the injured players weren't nearly as good as the Red Sox replacements. Compare the Sox players mentioned above to the likes of Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, and the position players we called up, and it's easy to say the Red Sox have a lot more quality depth than the Orioles.

Hey we got Tike Redman!

[hoosiers]

They didn't win because of chemistry. They won because, as Bill Simmons has said many times, they can take expensive risks and have them not hurt them if they don't pay off.

Examples include Lugo, Drew, Gagne, Matt Clement...if we signed Drew, and he played like he did for them this year, it would have crippled the middle of their order. Not so in Boston. Money buys depth, depth gives you the ability to shake off busts as if they were nothing.

I thought Frobby's post dealt with the perceived primary reason the Sox won the AL this year. I think the above is the primary reason - their huge payroll grants them a large margin for error. The primary moves last offseason - Drew and DiceK - produced well below expectations.

There are many reasons for the Sox success, but the organization's payroll and ability to spend well-above slot on the draft, both of which relate to an organization with cash to burn. That's the primary reason the Sox won.

[oriole_way]

I'm just perusing the Red Sox team stats, and marvelling at how much went right for them.

Of their 9 regulars, all 9 played in 130+ games. As best as I can tell, Wily Mo Pena and Doug Mirabelli were the only two Red Sox hitters to go on the DL all year. Manny Ramirez missed some time late in the year, but never went on the DL.

Among the starting pitchers, the Opening Day rotation made 140 starts. Only Schilling missed significant time due to injury. Tavarez eventually was pulled from the rotation.

In the bullpen, only Brendan Donnelly and Joel Piniero suffered injuries.

All in all, the Red Sox have a great team, but they also have been very fortunate in 2007.

The Red Sox have won 93, 95, 98, 95, 86 and 96 games over the past 6 regular seasons.

It's like they are very fortunate almost every year. Yeah, that must be it.