Gonzalez + Crawford minus Beltre + VMart = 2 WAR

[Frobby]

I know everyone's conceding the division to the Red Sox, but I say hold on. Belte and VMart weren't slouches, you know. They produced 9.1 WAR in 2010, compared to 11.1 for Gonzalez and Crawford. Frankly the main advantages aren't for 2011, but because they are replacing two valuable older players with two valuable younger ones.

If the Sox dominate in 2011, it will be because (1) they don't have the absurd number of injuries that they suffered in 2011, and (2) Tampa is significantly weaker than before. But the overall roster (forgetting the injuries) isn't really much stronger at all. Who is going to catch for the Sox, anyway?

[Crazysilver03]

While on paper, the upgrade is worth only 2 WAR, one would assume that Gonzalez and Crawford will be better playing in Fenway Park.

[Capn Vivi]

Thank you for posting this.

Also important to keep in mind that Ortiz and Drew posted a cumulative WAR of 5.9 last year and both will be 35 all season. They may further decline, but it's pretty unlikely they improve on their 2010 season.

Carl Crawford's 2010 WAR was the highest of his career, so I'm not exactly penciling in Boston for 105 W's in 2011, either.

Their biggest improvement will be seeing Pedroia, Youk and Ellsbury healthy for the whole year. Beckett and Lackey may bounce back, but then again Buchholz almost certainly won't be as absurdly good as he was last season (187 ERA+ in 173.2 innings). Buchholz was Pedro last year.

[Arthur_Bryant]

While on paper, the upgrade is worth only 2 WAR, one would assume that Gonzalez and Crawford will be better playing in Fenway Park.

Well...

Fenway isn't known for being especially friendly to LH hitters.

And the wall in left will negate much of Crawford's range in the field.

[Scrat1]

While on paper, the upgrade is worth only 2 WAR, one would assume that Gonzalez and Crawford will be better playing in Fenway Park.

This will definitely be true for Gonzalez, but might be the opposite for Crawford due to a lot of his value being tied up in his fielding and some of that value being wasted in Fenway's tiny left field. (Obviously I'm not saying anything original there; just about every analyst has mentioned this in the signing.)

Also, I'm still curious how they'll handle the third base situation long term. Do they stick Youkilis out there and hope it isn't too ugly, or do they move Youkilis (or AGon) to DH after Ortiz is gone? Either Youk's value will be hurt by playing a position he's no longer suited for or by wasting his (or AGon's) glove in the DH spot.

The Red Sox are going to be a very strong team, but I'm not sure all the hand-wringing is necessary.

[Capn Vivi]

This will definitely be true for Gonzalez, but might be the opposite for Crawford due to a lot of his value being tied up in his fielding and some of that value being wasted in Fenway's tiny left field. (Obviously I'm not saying anything original there; just about every analyst has mentioned this in the signing.)

At the same time, he'll be moving out of the NL West into the AL East, so I've just assumed the league difference will cancel out the park difference. Of course, we'll all find out soon enough.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a terrific year, but he is coming off off-season surgery so there are a number of x-factors our there. He's clearly a great hitter, but his prior two years have been pretty incredible. His first 3 full years in the league he averaged about a .364 wOBA and put up a .378 wOBA last year.

For comparison's sake: Luke Scott put up a .387 wOBA in 2010.

[JTrea81]

I know everyone's conceding the division to the Red Sox, but I say hold on. Belte and VMart weren't slouches, you know. They produced 9.1 WAR in 2010, compared to 11.1 for Gonzalez and Crawford. Frankly the main advantages aren't for 2011, but because they are replacing two valuable older players with two valuable younger ones.

If the Sox dominate in 2011, it will be because (1) they don't have the absurd number of injuries that they suffered in 2011, and (2) Tampa is significantly weaker than before. But the overall roster (forgetting the injuries) isn't really much stronger at all. Who is going to catch for the Sox, anyway?

Well let's look at the Sox right now:

Position Players: 38.5

Ellsbury (3.0)

Pedroia (6.0)

Youkilis (5.5)

Gonzalez (6.0)

Crawford (6.0)

Ortiz (3.0)

Drew (2.5)

Salty (1.0)

Scutaro (2.2)

Lowrie (1.5)

Cameron (1.0)

Varitek (0.8)

Patterson (0.0)

Pitchers: 25.2

Lester (6.0)

Beckett (3.5)

Buchholz (4.0)

Lackey (4.0)

Matsuzaka (2.5)

Wakefield (1.1)

Atchison (0.0)

Bowden (0.4)

Doubront (0.5)

Bard (1.7)

Papelbon (1.5)

Total = 63.7 fWAR = 107-108 wins

And that's without adding bullpen help or upgrading their bench...

[Stotle]

I know everyone's conceding the division to the Red Sox, but I say hold on. Belte and VMart weren't slouches, you know. They produced 9.1 WAR in 2010, compared to 11.1 for Gonzalez and Crawford. Frankly the main advantages aren't for 2011, but because they are replacing two valuable older players with two valuable younger ones.

If the Sox dominate in 2011, it will be because (1) they don't have the absurd number of injuries that they suffered in 2011, and (2) Tampa is significantly weaker than before. But the overall roster (forgetting the injuries) isn't really much stronger at all. Who is going to catch for the Sox, anyway?

This is certainly a rosy post, but I think your "(1)" is as far as we need to go. Their 1-3 hitters played in a combined 203 games and the Sox still finished with 89 wins in 2010.

Salty will be catching, and I think a peak inside the org might reveal that some of their proprietary work points to him being a better defensive catcher than he's given credit for (just a hunch, though).

[Frobby]

Total = 63.7 fWAR = 107-108 wins

And that's without adding bullpen help or upgrading their bench...

You really don't learn, do you? Last year you repeatedly posted that the Red Sox and Yankees would both win 100 games based on your WAR analysis. How'd that work out?

I can pretty much guarantee you the Sox won't win 107-08 games. Will they win 100? Maybe, if they are relatively healthy all year. But the odds are under 50/50.

[Frobby]

This is certainly a rosy post, but I think your "(1)" is as far as we need to go. Their 1-3 hitters played in a combined 203 games and the Sox still finished with 89 wins in 2010.

Salty will be catching, and I think a peak inside the org might reveal that some of their proprietary work points to him being a better defensive catcher than he's given credit for (just a hunch, though).

My point is just that AGon and CC aren't that huge an upgrade over Beltre and VMart. I think it's extremely likely that the Red Sox have better luck with their health in 2011 and that will make a big difference in their record. But that will be the biggest factor is any improvement for 2011, not the free agents who came and went.

[Frobby]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/10/AR2010121006172.html

[Sports Guy]

If everything goes right for Boston, i think its possible they push for 110 wins...its just not likely.

As I have said(and as many others have said before), year in and year out, Boston and NY essentially sustain themselves.

Its rare that they are a better team, on paper, from one year to the next and if they are, its not by much...and a lot of that has to do with teams like the Orioles being so poor.

[Stotle]

My point is just that AGon and CC aren't that huge an upgrade over Beltre and VMart. I think it's extremely likely that the Red Sox have better luck with their health in 2011 and that will make a big difference in their record. But that will be the biggest factor is any improvement for 2011, not the free agents who came and went.

But we are talking about an 89 win team that played a huge chunk of the season without their 1-3 hitters. I would assume BOS would have pushed for 95-98 wins with those three healthier.

Losing Beltre/VMart the question for BOS is what they do to replace that production. They went out and got two players that are younger and more likely to maintain that production into the future. They don't need for AGon/CC to be a big upgrade. They just need them to come close to what Beltre and VMart produced last year.

[LookinUp]

I'd almost move JD Drew to Left and put Crawford in Right if I were them. That would take advantage of Crawford's range.

[waroriole]

There is a huge difference between WAR, for Crawford, on fangraphs and baseballreference. Fangraphs has had Crawford as 5.7 and 6.9 the last two years. BBR has him at 4.4 and 4.8. BBR doesn't like his defense as well as FG. Does anyone know what the Fielding Bible says about it.