PECOTA projects O's record to be 82-80

[TakebackOPACY]

PECOTA's 2010 prediction was 14 games off. Has PECOTA published information about how accurate their W-L predictions have been? I didn't see anything on their site.

That's not correct. The link that was provided from 2010 showed someone else's predictions using PECOTA's individual player numbers. PECOTA was pretty accurate for the O's overall record last year. But nobody was very accurate overall last year. Thank the Giants and Rangers for that.

I didn't try to look this up to confirm it; it's just based on my memory. But I believe PECOTA beat the other major predictions for a few years. But starting a couple years ago has been a little further off.

As for individual players, there's a huge variance. PECOTA is straight math prob & stats type stuff, and has a wide standard deviation for individual players.

[DrungoHazewood]

Good catcher or not, he would be a flop at that OPS compared to what this team thought he would be and what they needed him to be.

Then I'll be content with a flop, and getting the production elsewhere. I'm not the kind of person who projects a 22-year-old kid to be the next coming of Yogi Berra and then screams "overrated" when he ends up as only the 50th-best catcher in history.

[Sports Guy]

Then I'll be content with a flop, and getting the production elsewhere. I'm not the kind of person who projects a 22-year-old kid to be the next coming of Yogi Berra and then screams "overrated" when he ends up as only the 50th-best catcher in history.

Glad to hear it...but we need Wieters to be more than that.

We need him to a superstar level player...Being a merely very solid player isn't good enough for this team and our situation.

[TakebackOPACY]

Glad to hear it...but we need Wieters to be more than that.

We need him to a superstar level player...Being a merely very solid player isn't good enough for this team and our situation.

The Rays, a few years ago, 'needed' BJ Upton and Delmon Young to become superstars in order to have any chance to compete. Yet Young was traded after a .723 OPS season before they became competitive. and Young has put up OPS's of .784, .686, and .745 in Tampa's winning seasons. Everyone will agree with you that the O's most reasonable path to a pennant race includes Wieters emerging as a superstar. But there's always another way.

Also, I can envision a .750 OPS season plotted one way that is mediocre or a .750 OPS season that is pretty darn good and still hopeful of superstardom.

On a separate note, I'm predicting a breakout year in a major way for Delmon Young.

[El Gordo]

The Rays, a few years ago, 'needed' BJ Upton and Delmon Young to become superstars in order to have any chance to compete. Yet Young was traded after a .723 OPS season before they became competitive. and Young has put up OPS's of .784, .686, and .745 in Tampa's winning seasons. Everyone will agree with you that the O's most reasonable path to a pennant race includes Wieters emerging as a superstar. But there's always another way.

Also, I can envision a .750 OPS season plotted one way that is mediocre or a .750 OPS season that is pretty darn good and still hopeful of superstardom.

On a separate note, I'm predicting a breakout year in a major way for Delmon Young.

The only superstars we need are on the mound. We'll do quite nicely with good players everywhere else. I don't think Nick is a superstar, but if we had a player as good as him in the 9 positions we'd be in great shape.

[I(heart)Birds]

Orioles will finish 77-85.

[Vladdy11]

Orioles will finish 77-85.

That's your prediction and you are entitled to it, but would you be bold enough to tell Buck your prediction to his face while he's sporting the evil eye.

[Vladdy11]

Here is a unimportant but somewhat stupid prediction thread from a Rangers fan, look at his Orioles prediction, beyond dumb:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=324&f=2068&t=7129188

[Sports Guy]

The Rays, a few years ago, 'needed' BJ Upton and Delmon Young to become superstars in order to have any chance to compete. Yet Young was traded after a .723 OPS season before they became competitive. and Young has put up OPS's of .784, .686, and .745 in Tampa's winning seasons. Everyone will agree with you that the O's most reasonable path to a pennant race includes Wieters emerging as a superstar. But there's always another way.

Also, I can envision a .750 OPS season plotted one way that is mediocre or a .750 OPS season that is pretty darn good and still hopeful of superstardom.

On a separate note, I'm predicting a breakout year in a major way for Delmon Young.

The Rays have a better plan, more depth and better management in place.

We don't have an Evan Longoria coming around anytime soon. Wieters is/was supposed to be that guy.

[Can_of_corn]

The Rays have a better plan, more depth and better management in place.

We don't have an Evan Longoria coming around anytime soon. Wieters is/was supposed to be that guy.

You don't think Machado could be that guy? Or is your definition of soon different then mine?

[ShaneDawg85]

How excited would you be with an 82 win season if Wieters is just a 750ish OPS guy?

It would depend on how some of the other young guys turn out. If Matusz has a season that sets him up for a David Price-esque 2012, Tillman comes up and finally shows some confidence, Bergesen remains a serviceable back of the rotation guy, Britton shows he's ready and has some productive outings at the major league level, and some other stuff, it's a little easier to deal with.

[TakebackOPACY]

You don't think Machado could be that guy? Or is your definition of soon different then mine?

It's different, in this case. The example I gave was all about the Rays in 2007; and in that example, everyone knew Longoria would be called up by mid-2008 at the latest.

His point and mine don't contradict each other though. Because my point is that if management is good enough and creative enough, their not dependent on one particular player being that superstar. His point is that the Rays' management was creative enough and good enough and the O's management probably isn't. I'm not debating that because it may be correct. All we get to do is wait and see.

[Ohfan67]

That's not correct. The link that was provided from 2010 showed someone else's predictions using PECOTA's individual player numbers. PECOTA was pretty accurate for the O's overall record last year. But nobody was very accurate overall last year. Thank the Giants and Rangers for that.

I didn't try to look this up to confirm it; it's just based on my memory. But I believe PECOTA beat the other major predictions for a few years. But starting a couple years ago has been a little further off.

As for individual players, there's a huge variance. PECOTA is straight math prob & stats type stuff, and has a wide standard deviation for individual players.

Thanks for the correction/info. Good stuff.

[Frobby]

You don't think Machado could be that guy? Or is your definition of soon different then mine?

Machado could be that guy, but we won't see him until late 2013 at the earliest unless something shocking happens.

[Frobby]

Updated team projection, from yesterday:

Orioles:

Record: 81-81

Runs Scored: 760

Runs Allowed: 758

AVG/OBP/SLG: .268/.334/.431

Boston:

Record: 93-69

Runs Scored: 800

Runs Allowed: 676

AVG/OBP/SLG: .267/.349/.430

New York:

Record: 92-70

Runs Scored: 815

Runs Allowed: 703

AVG/OBP/SLG: .266/.347/.439

Tampa:

Record: 84-78

Runs Scored: 715

Runs Allowed: 684

AVG/OBP/SLG: .247/.337/.404

Toronto

Record: 76-86

Runs Scored: 720

Runs Allowed: 771

AVG/OBP/SLG: .258/.315/.435

As you can see, it's the pitching that is projected to hold us back. BP projects the Orioles to be 4th in the AL in runs scored (behind NY/BOS/TEX), but 11th in fewest runs allowed (ahead of only KC/TOR/CLE).