BP: Wieters one of the Most Disappointing Prospects of All Time

[murrayfan420]

One thing i've noticed from posters on OH is their shift to comparing him to catchers around the league. Unfairly or not, this guy was supposed to be a .900 OPS middle of the order hitter.. not just an average to above-average hitting catcher.

[Lateralus]

One thing i've noticed from posters on OH is their shift to comparing him to catchers around the league. Unfairly or not, this guy was supposed to be a .900 OPS middle of the order hitter.. not just an average to above-average hitting catcher.

Sometimes it's easier for people to move the goalposts.

[Sports Guy]

Still sticking to my theory that he lost too much weight before last season and needed to get stronger. I haven't seen him this spring. I"m not sure bat speed is THE problem. He seems to have a lot of trouble reading offsepeed stuff as well. He tore through A and AA and looked human at AAA. I think he'll be an .800 OPS guy. Just not a superstar. I think we'll see his walk totals go up this year, and along with that, all of his other numbers as well. I saw a Wieters interview where he pointed to most of his problems being tied to selectivity at the plate and saying that's why he was so good in the minors.

So, bottom line, a combination of getting stronger and being more slective will put him up where most would be happy with him.

The strength part of this has to be improved. I just hope the Boras facility is as strong as it needs to be.

[utvolzac]

I put Wieters into a category w/ a guy like Reggie Bush. Bush contributes in special teams and as a 3rd down back, but never became the next Barry Sanders like he was projected to be based off his place in the draft and college stats. Most would agree that he is a "bust" in that sense.

Wieters is like that. A solid contributor, but not the franchise player he was expected to be. The only difference is that I believe Wieters can still develop into that player. If he struggles again this year then it is really time to panic.

[Sports Guy]

One thing i've noticed from posters on OH is their shift to comparing him to catchers around the league. Unfairly or not, this guy was supposed to be a .900 OPS middle of the order hitter.. not just an average to above-average hitting catcher.

Exactly...The expectation levels have gone from potential of a HOF catcher to a guy that should have a nice little career.

I am sorry but that is a bust...in terms of what we needed him to become.

[mrpennybags]

Wieters 226 G .721 OPS

Gary Carter. 235 G .708 OPS

Ted Simmons 202 G .728 OPS

This.

Also, there are #1 overall picks who never even got a cup of coffee in the majors so 'one of the most disappointing' is obvious hyperbole.

The only way you could reasonably name him 'most disappointing' is if you thought he'd have cured cancer and won a 3-way deathmatch with Chuck Norris and The Devil by now.

[LookinUp]

There are things about the Orioles that have been impossible not to notice over the last year. Like when Jim Palmer talked about their lack of work ethic. Like the inability to adjust in-game to a 87mph fastball guy who keeps throwing change ups. Like the horrible conditioning.

I don't know what was going on day to day, but I can't help but think that Matt Wieters is just another player caught up in the horrible organization that was the Baltimore Orioles.

I have a hard time believing that the hitter I saw last year ever put up the numbers he did in the minors. More likely, I think, is that he has some mechanical flaws that need to be addressed; that opposing teams have identified his weaknesses and he needs to adjust; and that his conditioning in general and strength in particular were sub par.

All we can do is hope that his problems were more about his environment than they were about his talent, and that Buck will address those problems with mechanics, adjustments and conditioning ASAP.

I believe, hon.

[MurphDogg]

One thing i've noticed from posters on OH is their shift to comparing him to catchers around the league. Unfairly or not, this guy was supposed to be a .900 OPS middle of the order hitter.. not just an average to above-average hitting catcher.

Right, but there is a thought that catchers develop slower as hitters because they are focused more on their defense and working with the pitching staff. I don't think anybody is arguing that Wieters has not been disappointing. I think it is highly unlikely that he ever achieves the lofty expectations people had for him. But there are so many highly touted prospects that don't even become everyday players that calling him one of the most disappointing prospects of all time is stupid. Clearly a lot of people's expectations of him have shifted from a .900-.950 OPS potential Hall of Famer to an .800-.850 OPS All-Star which is disappointing but hardly historically disappointing. He could still be a star and fall well short of the hype.

[atlantaoriole]

I wouldn't call him a "bust" quite yet but I really thought he could come in to Baltimore after tearing up the minors and perform on par with a Brian McCann and Joe Mauer did when they joined the bigs.

If you look at it Buster Posey came in with a lot less hype and has already outperformed Wieters.

[WV O's]

Is it too early?

Here is a guy that everyone(and I mean everyone, not just O's fans) felt was going to be a superstar from day 1.

He destroyed the lower minors and after struggling early on in AAA, put up good numbers there.

He then came up and while he didn't light the world on fire, he had a respectable rookie campaign, which ended with a bang.

In his rookie year, both crstoner and myself pointed to his poor athleticism and poor bat speed and were slammed for that...Now, we hear about those things as the problem.

He seemed to be a little more athletic last year, with some of the training he did in the offseason but his bat still looked slow.

He can't hit lefties yet.

I appreciate the fact that his defense is improved but we didn't draft him for that and all the excuses about him worrying about a young staff are bs.

Whether you want to think the expectations were too high or not, the fact of the matter is this was a guy that was supposed to be our franchise savior. We paid him a huge bonus and practically labeled him, from day 1, as a HOFer.

Now, let's take the idea of HOFer out of the equation.

The Orioles still need(ed) him to be a premium level talent and I don't see how that was something that was too much to ask.

So, the question I have is this....Did everyone overhype Wieters and not pay attention to his big time question marks OR is this a case of the Orioles developing a hitter poorly, as they seem to do?

Now, I do agree that it is too early to label him a bust...This year will likely decide that.

The problem I have with BP rating him one of the biggest busts of all time is that he is still likely to be a productive player and maybe have a few AS seasons. When I think of a total bust and ranking that at all time levels, I think of guys like Brien Taylor...guys that never did anything.

But, if all Wieters is for the Orioles is an occassional AS, he is a bust for what we needed him to be. That doesn't mean a bust as a player overall, just a bust for what he was supposed to mean to this franchise.

Good post SG..except for the "i told you so". Not needed IMO.

[MurphDogg]

If you look at it Buster Posey came in with a lot less hype and has already outperformed Wieters.

Posey was the 5th pick in the '08 draft and was ranked by BA as the #14 prospect in '09 and #7 in '10.

Wieters was the 5th pick in the '07 draft and was ranked by BA as the #12 prospect in '08 and #1 in '09.

There was less hype but Posey hardly came out of nowhere, I certainly wouldn't call it a lot less hype. As Orioles fans we got more wrapped up in the Wieters hype but minus being called "switch-hitting Jesus" they are much more similar than different.

[Sports Guy]

There are things about the Orioles that have been impossible not to notice over the last year. Like when Jim Palmer talked about their lack of work ethic. Like the inability to adjust in-game to a 87mph fastball guy who keeps throwing change ups. Like the horrible conditioning.

I don't know what was going on day to day, but I can't help but think that Matt Wieters is just another player caught up in the horrible organization that was the Baltimore Orioles.

I have a hard time believing that the hitter I saw last year ever put up the numbers he did in the minors. More likely, I think, is that he has some mechanical flaws that need to be addressed; that opposing teams have identified his weaknesses and he needs to adjust; and that his conditioning in general and strength in particular were sub par.

All we can do is hope that his problems were more about his environment than they were about his talent, and that Buck will address those problems with mechanics, adjustments and conditioning ASAP.

I believe, hon.

This is a good post and one I do agree with.

My only issue is with this is that 2010 was his first full year and you are telling me that he was already caught up in the Orioles issues? I mean, what does that tell us about what is going on between the ears of Wieters that he would get so down so quickly?

However, this post is why I hate the idea that a good manager is only worth a few more wins than a bad manager. Buck could end up changing the entire mindset of this team and if he does that, there will be a much bigger difference than a few wins.

[Lateralus]

What I don't get about the Posey/Weiters thing is this:

Last year we heard the excuse (a good bit of the time) "Well Matt is focusing on getting to know the pitchers, opposing hitters, calling a good game, etc., etc., so that's why his hitting isn't up to snuff."

If that's the case than how come Posey could still get to know opposing hitters/call good games/get to know his pitchers/etc. all while raking in the batters box.

Seems like the excuse doesn't really fly. And I don't want to hear about, "Well Buster is playing in the inferior NL." Plus if anything I'd say Buster would've been under even more pressure, catching, with the group of pitchers he has on his team.

[PaulFolk]

The guy has had one full major-league season. It's way too early to be calling him one of the most disappointing prospects of all time. Some players just don't figure it out immediately and then turn out to be great (Roy Halladay comes to mind).

[RVAbird]

One man's take: Wieters should worry less about contact/K's and let loose.