MacPhail on trade possibilities

[Sports Guy]

Luke is about average in LF now, possibly slightly below. I'd say Reimold is worse than Luke. Anybody who is below average in the field is a liability there, in my book.

You have no way of knowing this right now.

And it depends on how below average.

Is he a -5 or a -15?

-5 isn't a liability.

[Sports Guy]

So back to the topic at hand, I'm curious your opinion of how valuable a real CF is to back up Jones. And anyone's really?

I think it depends on who your CFer is, what their injury history is and if you have a manager that will rest that CFer properly.

IMO, Jones should sit out 1 game a month and DH once a month. That is the same plan I would have for Nick as well.

However, Jones is prone to missing some time, so because of that, having a back up CFer is important IMO.

Do you think the O's could lose a serious number of games because of this? Does anyone?

I don't think we would lose a serious number of games if Scott was our second baseman. Using the word serious there is key.

What do you think the gap between Pie and Reimold's offense is as well?

I have said several times that I feel Reimold is essentially a right handed Scott..So, an 800-850 OPS guy. I think Pie is likely to be in the 720-780 range.

Do people think both Pie and Reimold could see a combined 500+ PA's this year? And if so does that mean we should keep both on the roster.

I feel they should have had more than that....I would have either not signed Vlad or traded Scott(or both).

[El Gordo]

You have no way of knowing this right now.

And it depends on how below average.

Is he a -5 or a -15?

-5 isn't a liability.

Certainly it is, if we are just talking about defense. And what do you expect his bat to be if he is just coming off the bench? Luke was an above average LF two years ago, but I wouldn't expect him to be so now. In any case he was and probably still is better than Reimold.

[Sports Guy]

Certainly it is, if we are just talking about defense. And what do you expect his bat to be if he is just coming off the bench? Luke was an above average LF two years ago, but I wouldn't expect him to be so now. In any case he was and probably still is better than Reimold.

No its not....Maybe in your little world where you greatly exaggerate things but in reality, it isn't a number that says liability.

[TonySoprano]

Assuminig Vlad and Lee remain healthy, who are you PHing for? I'd say on this club, defense, and in particular OF defense, is more important.

Doesn't Lee first have to get healthy in order to remain healthy?

[El Gordo]

Doesn't Lee first have to get healthy in order to remain healthy?

If Lee starts the season on the DL the whole question of Reimold/Pie on the bench is a non issue, at least until Lee returns. The point is unless we are playing guys like Izzi we won't need much in the way of PH.

[Frobby]

What is more important coming off the bench defense or offense?

It depends on what you are going to use them for, and what the strengths of your team are.

I think different people have different opinions about how much better Reimold is than Pie offensively. Reimold is clearly the more patient hitter, and has more power. Over the last two years, he has a .778 OPS to Pie's .739. In the minors, he has an .874 OPS to Pie's .825. That is kind of how I see them -- about a 50-point spread in expected OPS. Some other people around here seem to think the difference will be more like 100-200 points. If you believe that, then the offense/defense trade-off looks a lot different than it does at 50 points.

[El Gordo]

It depends on what you are going to use them for, and what the strengths of your team are.

I think different people have different opinions about how much better Reimold is than Pie offensively. Reimold is clearly the more patient hitter, and has more power. Over the last two years, he has a .778 OPS to Pie's .739. In the minors, he has an .874 OPS to Pie's .825. That is kind of how I see them -- about a 50-point spread in expected OPS. Some other people around here seem to think the difference will be more like 100-200 points. If you believe that, then the offense/defense trade-off looks a lot different than it does at 50 points.

If Reimold isn't hitting, he has little value on the bench, except as a PR. If Pie isn't hitting, he is still the best defensive OF on the team as well as a PR.

[TonySoprano]

If Reimold isn't hitting, he has little value on the bench, except as a PR. If Pie isn't hitting, he is still the best defensive OF on the team as well as a PR.

Funny you bring up injuries and staying healthy and you don't mention Pie. Reimold played much of 2009 practically on one leg and finally had surgery. I doubt his health will be as much of an issue in 2011 compared to Pie. Of course, in your scenario, Pie should be o.k. as he'll be resting more on the bench .

[JERSEYORIOLE]

Right so for a quick moment let's assume that Pie is having a terrible offensive year (yes not a foregone conclusion) or he gets hurt.

A). He's bad offensively. If we aren't carrying Reimold our bench is actually putrid. Fox can be spotty. Tatum should regress. Hopefully CI gets better, but how much better can he really get. Pie is slumping. Fox will be our only real threat as an offensive guy coming in.

B). He gets hurt. This seems way more likely to me. If we haven't tested the waters in our contingency plan, if we're forcing ourselves to carry a backup CF for backups sake then we HAVE to bring up Angle if that's the case. The we just have another bench of Angle, Itzuris, Tatum and Fox. Again, only one real bat off the bench.

I think a backup CF is as valuable as the next guy does. But we all know depth matters and not just for injuries but for days off etc.

Generally, if we're talking about carrying a viable backup CF. Why Pie over anyone else. And if we can get a low level pitching prospect with upside for him. I'm not sure why we don't pull the trigger on this. Pie has potential, but it's not oozing out of him anymore. With a guy like Angle waiting in the wings, doesn't his value to this team drop significantly. Does anyone here think Pie is legitimately our long term solution in LF at this point? If not...what's he staying for...to be back up CF? This seems pointless to me.

Keep him here to get him at bats. Or ship him off for someone that's going to be good. But don't keep him here because he's out of options and we need to spell Jones. That's a pretty poor use of a roster spot if you ask me.

Then again, dump Tatum, let Fox backup, and I don't see it as big of an issue. But if Tatum stays, I'm a bit worried about the in game depth of our offense from a bench standpoint.

I agree. This topic has been beat to death. My opinion is obvious. I think Reimold needs to make this team, options shotions. I agree that we can not just give Pie away. So lets assume they both make the team. I do not see where Pie gets much playing time at all. With those two on the bench, who would you want pinch hitting? Forget pinch running, Pie's base stealing is horrible and from what I've seen Reimold runs the bases well, hustles and is pretty fast. You are going to start Pie in left over Reimold when Scott plays first or is rested? If so based on what? So where and when does Pie play? If anyone thinks that Pie has a future on this team, you are mistaken. I would be burning up the phones trying to get rid of him. Angle plays GREAT defense, can run like the wind and steal bases, if the need for an outfielder arrises, hes sitting on the farm. Thats the kind of guy I want on my bench.

I will speak to those that say that Pie has little value right now. There is a reason for it. I say make a move now, before he has even less value. Ever date a really good looking girl but she drive you crazy and you really wish that you could get along with her because the outside package is so nice. Thats how I feel about Pie. Eventually you have to dump that girl. The same can be said for Pie. Just ask the Cubs.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

If Reimold isn't hitting, he has little value on the bench, except as a PR. If Pie isn't hitting, he is still the best defensive OF on the team as well as a PR.

Are there any stats to back up the claim that Pie is the best defensive outfileder on the team?

[El Gordo]

Funny you bring up injuries and staying healthy and you don't mention Pie. Reimold played much of 2009 practically on one leg and finally had surgery. I doubt his health will be as much of an issue in 2011 compared to Pie. Of course, in your scenario, Pie should be o.k. as he'll be resting more on the bench .

I was talking about Vlad's and Lee's health, not Reimold's. I would assume he is healthy. My point is Reimold's value is as a bat and if he isn't hitting then he is of little use. Pie as long as he is healthy has more value as a bench player and it's not out of the realm of possibility that he will hit as well.

[El Gordo]

Are there any stats to back up the claim that Pie is the best defensive outfileder on the team?

What difference would it make? When they don't agree with someone's favorite player then they are dismissed as imprecise.:rolleyestf:

[AgentOrange]

What difference would it make? When they don't agree with someone's favorite player then they are dismissed as imprecise.:rolleyestf:

It would make a difference if there was an actual defensive stat that is similar to what OPS is to offense. But there isn't.

[Singleton]

A few thoughts.

1. Flash...I'm with you. I don't see a ton of value in Pie as a 4th OF versus even Angle as 4th OF and a prospect received for Pie. Now, when is the time to pull that off? I'm not sure. We need to account for Pie's value and the standard baseball MO of waiting until the deadline to make trades. However, if we can find a willing and reasonable partner now, I'd make the deal.

2. I still think Jones's issue with balls being hit over his head has as much to do with the pitching as it did his positioning. To be clear, if balls are frequently going over your head, you should back up. However, playing shallow with Britton on the mound makes a lot more sense than playing shallow with Hendrickson on the mound. I hope he can recognize the difference moving forward, and adjust hitter to hitter as well.

3. I think this thread illustrates our unbalanced roster pretty well. We have three guys who fit as DH, but no regular corner outfielders that we're really comfortable with putting in CF.

4. I don't know why people think Scott needs to play every day. I don't know why people think Lee would play every day. I don't know why people think Vlad would play every day. If any of them are out, I'd be very happy with Reimold replacing them in the lineup regularly, with appropriate defensive adjustments as well (e.g., Scott to 1b).

If we were going to be satisfied with Angle as our 4th outfielder now, we most certainly should have traded Pie in December when more teams were in the market for centerfield help. Unless an injury makes another team desperate, i don't think late in spring training is the time to trade anyone of value.