Jump to content

What should be done with Guerrero?


jiminnj

Recommended Posts

What about offering him arbitration and making it clear to him that if he accepts his role will be as a bench player as the team wants to evaluate Pie and Reimold in left and Luke Scott at DH.

Sure he still may accept but maybe if his role is made crystal clear to him his pride wouldn't allow him to accept it. Vlad has made what 9-figures over his career? Being a bench player may be a bigger deal to him than a few million.

MacPhail should just ask himself WWAD?

What would Alex (Anthopolous) do?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 71
  • Created
  • Last Reply
He was good for an 11 game stretch (multiple hits in I believe 11 games in a row in May), the rest of May he was poor. That 11 game stretch is just about it for Vlad this year. His overall OPS for May was .755 (nobody would have called that good for Vlad before this season began).

If I knew going into the season that the league OPS was in the .710-.720 range I would have said Vlad would be lucky to get out of the high .700s. I didn't expect anything more than a 110-115 OPS+, and that's in the .750 range right now. That's not terrible, it's the equivalent of maybe an .800 or so from 2006.

He will if he doesn't like Baltimore and I'm not sure that he does...

There's no way a 37-year-old replacement-level DH turns down arbitration. In arb he could get $6M, $8M. On the open market he'd be darned lucky to get a 1/4 deal. And a really good team will have no use for a guy with negative defensive value and maybe a .700 OPS.

What about offering him arbitration and making it clear to him that if he accepts his role will be as a bench player as the team wants to evaluate Pie and Reimold in left and Luke Scott at DH.

Sure he still may accept but maybe if his role is made crystal clear to him his pride wouldn't allow him to accept it. Vlad has made what 9-figures over his career? Being a bench player may be a bigger deal to him than a few million.

MacPhail should just ask himself WWAD?

What would Alex (Anthopolous) do?

Any halfway decent GM of a team in 2011 would take one look at Vlad and say "ok, maybe you can come to spring training on a NRI, and if our regular DH blows out an Achilles or an ACL you could get 250 ABs."

I just don't see any role for a below-average hitting DH/PH with zero plate discipline and less than zero defensive/baserunning value. The O's took the substantial risk that Vlad was in steep decline when they signed him, and that risk became an issue. No reason to continue dealing with that issue beyond his current contract.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right...so if we don't gain anything from Reimold getting those at bats, and I see that point, I still think Reynolds in the long term really should be a DH option for the O's. Whenever the Vlad project ends, I'd really like to see Reynolds get a few ABs at DH and see if he can handle that position long term. At the very least it should allow the O's to pursue a high level fielding 3b this offseason, or a guy who at least for 40-50 games a year can be that guy out there, if we know Reynolds is comfortable from the DH position.

I also agree with the notion that he doesn't have to bat cleanup. I know Buck is a players guy, or he's at least morphed into one. But if Lee's hot streak is for real, and we can get Markakis/Jones/Reynolds/Scott/Lee or some variation thereof I'd much rather see that and let Vlad hit behind those guys than in front of right now. And hope that it might create some more opportunities for him to get RBIs. Maybe some silly GM would be willing to pay for 40 RBIs from Vlad in the next month even if they didn't come with a great OPS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I know is get him the eff out of the clean-up spot. It's an embarrassment.

And getting hot for a month or so isn't going to fool a team looking to pick up a DH. The book is out on Vlad -- he's done.

The Orioles can either choose to give him meaningless AB's while a potential future piece in Reimold sits on the bench, or they can sit the guy who will not be here next year (Guerrero) and give Reimold more AB's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a lot of hindsight on Vlad in this thread. Or maybe all the Vlad naysayers were drowned out in the offseason when it became clear the Orioles had a shot at signing him because I didn't hear too much opinion against it then. The thing is, you can't look at Vlad in a vacuum. You have to ask what were the alternatives? Does anybody here really think a Pie/Reimold combo would be putting up numbers any better than Vlad right now? The signing may not have worked out but I think it was worth doing under the circumstances. Just like in a game, you can hit the ball as hard as is humanly possible and it might go right into somebody's glove. That doesn't mean you shouldn't have swung. Vlad should be out of the clean-up spot but he should definitely be in the lineup through the deadline in hopes he can catch fire and be dealt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a lot of hindsight on Vlad in this thread. Or maybe all the Vlad naysayers were drowned out in the offseason when it became clear the Orioles had a shot at signing him because I didn't hear too much opinion against it then. The thing is, you can't look at Vlad in a vacuum. You have to ask what were the alternatives? Does anybody here really think a Pie/Reimold combo would be putting up numbers any better than Vlad right now? The signing may not have worked out but I think it was worth doing under the circumstances. Just like in a game, you can hit the ball as hard as is humanly possible and it might go right into somebody's glove. That doesn't mean you shouldn't have swung. Vlad should be out of the clean-up spot but he should definitely be in the lineup through the deadline in hopes he can catch fire and be dealt.

I've harped about this before. The reason I wasn't thrilled with the Vlad signing is exactly what has happened to us. Lack of flexibility. We can't hide him, he can't play anywhere else. He has one job, to hit. He clogs the roster and he puts the team in a worse position when he's not hitting. Unlike Lee he doesn't have something else to fall back on. And the risk of $8 mill for the lack of flexibility, turned out to be the problem.

Do people think that teams will take Vlad if we relegate him to the bench? Will the only way he has trade value if he catches fire? Maybe some GM, some coach, or some injury will make teams take a risk that Vlad might bounce back. If we limit his playing time, at least we don't kill his trade value...In a zero sum game world, where he catches fire and can be trade, or he stinks it up still and can't be traded, would we be better off leaving a level of uncertainty but keeping him on the bench for PH duties until the trade deadline?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thing is, you can't look at Vlad in a vacuum. You have to ask what were the alternatives? Does anybody here really think a Pie/Reimold combo would be putting up numbers any better than Vlad right now?

Vlad is putting up a 94 OPS+ with no defensive value. He's sitting at 0.0 WAR.

If they hadn't signed Vlad, Scott would be the DH and there'd be a Reimold/Pie platoon in left field. As a DH Scott would be a few tenths of a win better since he wouldn't be on pace to be a -12 RFer (which I think is a fair representation of his defensive value). Reimold and Pie would probably be hitting about as well as Vlad, since the average of their career numbers is about what Vlad is doing in '11. Pie's defense would be much better than Scott's, and he'd be getting about 2/3rd of the playing time in a platoon.

So, yea, I think the O's would be a win or two better without Vlad.

Actually, the Vlad situation is almost exactly what I identified in the offseason as a worst-case: he's hitting poorly enough to be a drag on the team and to have limited trade value, but not poorly enough to make an obvious case to release or bench a future HOFer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One other thought is that if Vlad is a Type B, would he be willing to sign somewhere next year. Both Vlad and Lee seem like they are on pace for Type B status, would the O's offer Vlad in particular arbitration? Would Vlad take it?

At the end of the day if we think Vlad can hang on somewhere next year, and we can't trade him, do we think he'll get arb and turn it down? He's right on the cusp of Type A or Type B. If he gets hot and becomes A and we don't trade him, I don't see the O's offering him arb because he'd most likely take it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vlad is putting up a 94 OPS+ with no defensive value. He's sitting at 0.0 WAR.

If they hadn't signed Vlad, Scott would be the DH and there'd be a Reimold/Pie platoon in left field. As a DH Scott would be a few tenths of a win better since he wouldn't be on pace to be a -12 RFer (which I think is a fair representation of his defensive value). Reimold and Pie would probably be hitting about as well as Vlad, since the average of their career numbers is about what Vlad is doing in '11. Pie's defense would be much better than Scott's, and he'd be getting about 2/3rd of the playing time in a platoon.

So, yea, I think the O's would be a win or two better without Vlad.

Actually, the Vlad situation is almost exactly what I identified in the offseason as a worst-case: he's hitting poorly enough to be a drag on the team and to have limited trade value, but not poorly enough to make an obvious case to release or bench a future HOFer.

Why do you think Reimold and Pie would be platooning? Reimold doesn't have huge L/R splits historically. Wouldn't it be just as likely that Reimold would be the starting LF and Pie would have the same role he has now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One other thought is that if Vlad is a Type B, would he be willing to sign somewhere next year. Both Vlad and Lee seem like they are on pace for Type B status, would the O's offer Vlad in particular arbitration? Would Vlad take it?

At the end of the day if we think Vlad can hang on somewhere next year, and we can't trade him, do we think he'll get arb and turn it down? He's right on the cusp of Type A or Type B. If he gets hot and becomes A and we don't trade him, I don't see the O's offering him arb because he'd most likely take it.

Vlad hitting Type A status would be the kiss of death for him getting an arbitration offer from the O's. As much as I fall into the anti-MacPhail camp, it'd be impossible to fault him for not offering arbitration at that point since nobody is giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder for Vlad next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vlad hitting Type A status would be the kiss of death for him getting an arbitration offer from the O's. As much as I fall into the anti-MacPhail camp, it'd be impossible to fault him for not offering arbitration at that point since nobody is giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder for Vlad next year.

Right...so this goes back to my prior question. Do the O's really have a vested interest in continuing to play Vlad at this point? If he gets hot, he becomes Type A. Maybe that makes him less valuable to other teams in a trade, we don't move him. And then we sink $8 mill for nothing. If he gets hot for two weeks and we can't trade him, that could be a pretty much be the maximum worst case scenario that Drungo had referenced.

What if we just sat him down? If a team needed him for injury or other reasons, the intrigue level goes up. He might be getting some resting time, etc. which teams might interpret as a good thing. You could leverage him into important RBI situations, a stat that might make him appear more valuable. And with limited at bats, his status wouldn't have the same opportunity to increase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why do you think Reimold and Pie would be platooning? Reimold doesn't have huge L/R splits historically. Wouldn't it be just as likely that Reimold would be the starting LF and Pie would have the same role he has now?

I would hope they wouldn't be platooning. If Vlad is moved, it hope we ran Reimold out there everyday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, the Vlad situation is almost exactly what I identified in the offseason as a worst-case: he's hitting poorly enough to be a drag on the team and to have limited trade value, but not poorly enough to make an obvious case to release or bench a future HOFer.

You certainly did identify this as the worst-cast scenario in the offseason. It is all your fault that it is happening. If you hadn't identified it it certainly wouldn't have happened. :D

That it is the worst-cast scenario, is exactly why I think it should be ended. Put him on the bench and give the playing time to others who might have a future with the Os.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Numerous people want to keep playing Vlad so that if he gets hot we could trade him. Earlier in this thread we identified 1 team that might be interested in Vlad (if he gets hot) and that was Seattle. They are an AL team (NL teams without the DH won't want Vlad), they are in the playoff hunt and their DH (Cust) is not doing well. So barring injury to other DHs we have one target team. If Seattle seeks a replacement for Cust, they will probably have many options, (DH is perhaps the easiest position to fill). So the situation is stacking up where he have one potential buyer and we will have almost no leverage in dealing with them (they can look elsewhere). The chances of us getting anything in return for Vlad even if he heats up in the 20 or so games he is going to play in July are pretty remote. We will probably have to eat most of his salary as well as get almost nothing of value in return if we are able to trade him. Since the chances of getting something out of Vlad are remote, why keep playing him?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • He allowed only one batted ball over 95 MPH, commanding his cutter particularly well in this one. I think the cutter is the most critical pitch for Povich to take the next step. He’s never had issues getting punch outs, he needs to be able to pitch in the zone without relying too much on his fastball. It’s also a key weapon against RHP - if you don’t have a true plus breaking ball or fastball that can overcome the platoon splits (which I don’t think Povich does), you can only make it as a LHP SP through the strength of your cutter and changeup, which are more reverse/neutral splits.  His changeup is probably not good enough to carry him on its own, so it’s the cutter that brings the whole pitch mix together.  
    • Agree he steps in the bucket. In theory should be a relatively easy fix. 
    • His back or shoulder might give out first. Hardly any talented pitcher retires without some sort of serious injury recorded.
    • Plus Member  30.8k Posted January 24 Aram Leighton from Just Baseball on Holliday “He has the tendency to pull off of the ball a bit with his front side, which can minimize his ability to use the ground and his lower half to generate more power, especially on pitches on the outer half. The move does not impede his ability to consistently make contact thanks to his adjustability and feel for the barrel. Holliday projects as an easy plus hitter with more juice to tap into.“ https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/baltimore-orioles-top-15-prospects-for-2024/
    • I guess my point is that the difference between 91 and 93 at the MLB level is probably negligible.  I would put significant emphasis on pitch sequencing, command and control, and the ability to land his secondary pitches.  If I am recalling his repertoire correctly his most important pitch is his change up.  And it was his ability to effectively throw a breaking pitch, I think it was a Slider, that really ushered in his pre-injury success.  Now you can make the case that 2 miles per hours of fastball velocity may make the change up an even more effective pitch.  I would not argue with you about that aspect, however I am not certain it explains much about his previous success.
    • From a thread in early January titled “Breaking down Jackson Holliday’s Swing”    January 4 Makes sense but I can’t think of many, if any, ML hitters who step like that with their lead foot.  It doesn’t look good to me but who can argue with the results?     Quote    
    • As long as it's never for the O's I'm happy to see him learning new skills. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...