Would you make this trade with Cinci?

[waroriole]

Yes, but only if Hardy won't extend.

[UMDTerrapins]

Would do it, but wouldn't feel like I got a steal in return. I'd feel better if Tony Butler clone was Juan Francisco instead.

[RVAbird]

Hah, I hadn't even read this poll when I responded to you in the other thread. This is more or less the deal I was thinking.

And yeah, I think I'd do it. You get young, cheap, potentially average solutions at 1B, SS/2B, and SP with a young, potential closer/set-up man. Travis Wood is probably not more than a #4/5 starter in the AL East, but it would be nice to add a young 4.50 ERA arm if we are losing Guthrie.

This isn't a steal and there are no potential stars, but it's a solid deal IMO. I'd prefer to extend Hardy and see if you can get Alonso +1 for Guthrie.

[Remember The Alomar]

As others have said--if Hardy has no desire to resign, then yes.

I'd prefer to extend Hardy and see if you can get Alonso +1 for Guthrie.

I'd prefer this scenario much, much more though.

[JTrea81]

Would love to somehow work Frazier into that deal so we can have his bat off the bench.

[Roll Tide]

SG .... How do you feel about the trade I've been proposing?

To recap

Guts and Hardy for Frazier, Cozart, Alonso, Boxberger, and Josh Smith?

Do you think it's a fair deal for both sides?

It seems to me the three position players are at AAA going on too long and would be easy for them to part with.

[Sports Guy]

SG .... How do you feel about the trade I've been proposing?

To recap

Guts and Hardy for Frazier, Cozart, Alonso, Boxberger, and Josh Smith?

Do you think it's a fair deal for both sides?

It seems to me the three position players are at AAA going on too long and would be easy for them to part with.

Frazier doesn't excite me as the #2 player in the trade.

[HokieOs]

I would do the deal unless we can get Hardy to sign for cheap (we won't). Cozart could probably step in at SS and be an upgrade over Izturis at the least. But we'd still be short a 2B. We'd get some relief help and an upgrade at 1B.

If they take Vlad AND his contract too, great (I know they never would.... just sayin. ha ha).

[JERSEYORIOLE]

There are so many trade Guthrie threads, that I think they need their own theme music.

[skanar]

I'm interested to know why anyone wouldn't take this trade.

We get a young replacement level SS back in this trade. We get a 1b. We get a reliever. Travis Wood gives us good MLB depth back as well.

Lots of savings and lots of value. This deal could really help the O's in the FA market in being able to have some leverage and helps us with the MLB ready AAA type talent this team is really lacking right now.

The problem with this deal is that none of the players has an especially high upside. Alonso is a 1B who has never managed an OPS above .860 in the minors. Cozart has a decent glove, but he's not Ozzie Smith, and his offensive ceiling is maybe a .720 OPS - good from a SS, but not the guy who takes your team over the hump. Wood is at best a #3 starter.

If all of these guys hit their best-case scenarios, the result just isn't that good.

On the other hand, this trade has less risk than others, since all of the players are ML ready and seem less likely to flop (remember, though, there is never a sure thing). Likely scenarios, Cozart could probably be Cesar Izturis, Alonso probably won't embarrass himself, Wood might give you a consistent 4.60 ERA. But for our two top trade commodities I would want one potential All-Star in the deal.

You might see these Cinci prospects differently and be higher on them. But I see this as the prospect version of signing Kevin Millar, Cesar Izturis, and Steve Trachsel a couple of years ago.

[Fan4Life]

If Hardy will not extend you make this trade. If hes willing to extend I hesitate.

This....

[Greg Pappas]

Not a single returning talent is good enough to headline such a deal.

Alonso is a solid prospect, but not a headliner for talent like Guthrie or Hardy. If he were the second best talent in the deal, it makes more sense. He's considered as 'defensively challenged', though he could be a decent-at-best 1B'man or naturally a DH.

I like Boxberger a lot, but again, in a big deal like this, he is 'third/fourth piece' type, as an excellent reliever prospect.

Travis Wood is a 4th/5th starter type in the AL East... better than Tillman or Bergesen, but not a guy I am clamoring for.

Cozart is a 25-year old SS prospect that is having the best offensive production of his pro career at AAA, but has been considered sub-par with the bat and very good with the glove. A nice pickup, but again, not a headliner.

Tony Butler-esque prospect(someone with upside, far away from majors)... not much to add. That type player could always bloom.

So, for an All Star-caliber SS that will be a Type A free agent at season's end and a good veteran #2/#3 starter, we get back zero 'headliner' talent, but rather four solid/good AAA players/prospects? I'm certainly not against acquiring these young men, but I'd feel cheated to see that specific deal go down. It's possible that I could be persuaded otherwise, but I just would like to see that one guy coming back that is a 'can't miss' type.

[O'sFanThruJune]

I don't know much about the prospects outside of what people have said about them in this thread. But seeing how they've been described here, I think I'd rather just take the picks for Hardy than include him in the deal.

[RVAbird]

Not a single returning talent is good enough to headline such a deal.

Alonso is a solid prospect, but not a headliner for talent like Guthrie or Hardy. If he were the second best talent in the deal, it makes more sense. He's considered as 'defensively challenged', though he could be a decent-at-best 1B'man or naturally a DH.

I like Boxberger a lot, but again, in a big deal like this, he is 'third/fourth piece' type, as an excellent reliever prospect.

Travis Wood is a 4th/5th starter type in the AL East... better than Tillman or Bergesen, but not a guy I am clamoring for.

Cozart is a 25-year old SS prospect that is having the best offensive production of his pro career at AAA, but has been considered sub-par with the bat and very good with the glove. A nice pickup, but again, not a headliner.

Tony Butler-esque prospect(someone with upside, far away from majors)... not much to add. That type player could always bloom.

So, for an All Star-caliber SS that will be a Type A free agent at season's end and a good veteran #2/#3 starter, we get back zero 'headliner' talent, but rather four solid/good AAA players/prospects? I'm certainly not against acquiring these young men, but I'd feel cheated to see that specific deal go down. It's possible that I could be persuaded otherwise, but I just would like to see that one guy coming back that is a 'can't miss' type.

I understand and can't argue with much of what you say, Greg, but you have been an advocate of trading pieces nearing free agency, and I don't know how much more you can reasonably expect in return for guys like Guthrie and Hardy. You're probably right that it's better to keep Hardy and take the draft picks, but I don't think that Guthrie is going to fetch more than an Alonso type headliner.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

I understand and can't argue with much of what you say, Greg, but you have been an advocate of trading pieces nearing free agency, and I don't know how much more you can reasonably expect in return for guys like Guthrie and Hardy. You're probably right that it's better to keep Hardy and take the draft picks, but I don't think that Guthrie is going to fetch more than an Alonso type headliner.

He probably isnt. That is why you dont trade him for this guy. You can wait until the off season to trade him or you have next deadline or the picks. Trading him for a boarderline prospect, is not intelligent. Lets be clear on something, the Orioles DO NOT have to trade Guthrie. If they do, I want prime rib coming back, not a big bucket of stew.