Trade for Mark Teixeira?

[Tony-OH]

Sign Posada. Trade for Tex? Heck, why don't we just start shoving hot pokers in our eyes while we watch the games.

I'm with you. Teixeira was dead to me as a player when he went to New York then talked about how he always had a Yankees hat on as a kid. Posada? Ughhh. The second he leaves New York he will decline faster than a Barcalounger.

[theobird]

I voted no, but not because I hate him. I don't hate him at all. I just see him as a player in decline with a ridiculous contract. Why would I want to add that to our roster? The Yankee's will have a very hard time moving him without paying at least half of his salary, and I don't believe they will do that.

[bird watcher]

Imagine for a moment the chip on his shoulder if the Yankees dumped him for a "better player". I could get over what happened before. It is hard to ignore the contract and what it might take to get him though...

[Orioles0615]

[video=youtube;qqSm-Eef66c]

[sangar]

So we should take on a highly overpaid quickly declining Yankee so they can afford to upgrade? What's next? Should we take ARod too?

They made these albatross contracts, now let them live with them. Let them bury themselves with their own idiocy, we're not Yankee puppets.

[RVAbird]

I try to leave the personal aspect aside when performing these thought exercises. My guess is one PC press conference and 80% of the people who "hate" Tex would change their tune, but that's outside the scope of my analysis.

There's no way I'd give current Tex a 5/115 contract if he were on the free agent market, so there's certainly no chance in hell I'd give up real value to attain him at that price. I'd require the Yankees to kick in, at a minimum, 4.5 MM per year (to reduce the annual cost from 22.5 MM to 18 MM) for a total of 22.5 MM kicked in (essentially, a free year). A 5/90 contract for 32 year old Tex is more appealing. That's kind of the threshold at which I'd be willing to talk barter.

[Dipper9]

For 22.5 million a year, I would first try for Albert. If that didn't work, I would indeed take Tex but wouldn't give up much of anything to the Yanks. Paying that salary would be enough. Like Bird Watcher says...he would be playing with a HUGE chip on his shoulder.

[theobird]

So we should take on a highly overpaid quickly declining Yankee so they can afford to upgrade? What's next? Should we take ARod too?

They made these albatross contracts, now let them live with them. Let them bury themselves with their own idiocy, we're not Yankee puppets.

I wish that I would have said this. Exactly right. Until teams start making the Yankee's eat these stupid contracts they print, they will keep doing it. That said, if the eat say....60% of the deal, then maybe we can talk.

[TiredofLosing20]

But again, a lot of this is tied up in his BABIP being so low and perhaps, trying to do too much in NY.

His BABIP decreased in each of those years as well. Is he just getting unluckier as he gets older?

Like I said in another post, the $112.5mm still owed to him and his decreasing numbers and increasing age I don't think I am interested even if its for a bag of balls. If they are willing to eat $10-12mm annually and not want anything of significance in return then maybe I consider it. I don't like his trend at $22.5mm regardless of how much of it is related to luck/pressing..

[bobmc]

So we should take on a highly overpaid quickly declining Yankee so they can afford to upgrade? What's next? Should we take ARod too?

They made these albatross contracts, now let them live with them. Let them bury themselves with their own idiocy, we're not Yankee puppets.

But would he bring the missus?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Yankees-can-thank-Leigh-Teixeira-for-their-new-f?urn=mlb-132549

[RVAbird]

Tex's WAR (BBRef)over the past 4 years

2008 - 7.3

2009 - 5.9

2010 - 4.1

2011 - 2.4 (Robert Andino's WAR for 2011 was 2.0)

His OPS+

2008 - 152

2009 - 141

2010 - 124

2011 - 117

Nah no thanks. I mean is there a chance he will bounce back, of course but at $22.5mm a year it's not a risk I am willing to take at this point.

To be fair, his fWAR has looked like the following:

2008 - 7.4

2009 - 5.2

2010 - 3.2

2011 - 4.2

And he was better than his slash line indicated this season. I think a guy with a career BABIP around .300 has a very good chance of bouncing back from .239. His BB and K rates are right around career levels. He did swing at a slightly higher percentage of balls outside of the strike zone in 2010 and 2011, which is a slight red flag, but his contact rate held. I understand that probably leads to some more balls in play on pitches out of the zone rather than pitches in the zone, which accounts for some of the drop in BABIP, but I think the decrease was a bit dramatic.

EDIT: Also, you conveniently started your trend the year he was a 7+ WAR player, but that is selection bias as it was a clear outlier of a season. Not many besides JTrea actually thought Tex was a 7 win player. He's been consistently a 3-6 WAR player throughout his career, and that's exactly what he's been for the Yankees. It's also why the contract was stupid.

[TiredofLosing20]

To be fair, his fWAR has looked like the following:

2008 - 7.4

2009 - 5.2

2010 - 3.2

2011 - 4.2

And he was better than his slash line indicated this season. I think a guy with a career BABIP around .300 has a very good chance of bouncing back from .239. His BB and K rates are right around career levels. He did swing at a slightly higher percentage of balls outside of the strike zone in 2010 and 2011, which is a slight red flag, but his contact rate held. I understand that probably leads to some more balls in play on pitches out of the zone rather than pitches in the zone, which accounts for some of the drop in BABIP, but I think the decrease was a bit dramatic.

Yeah I just saw that... I wonder why Fangraphs is so much higher?

If you average the two (which I doubt makes much sense) here is what it looks like

2008 - 7.35

2009 - 5.55

2010 - 3.65

2011 - 3.33

Nonetheless the price tag (and I am not going to lie the team we would be helping) would really be prohibitive to my willingness to consider it. The Yankees would really have to be willing to accept a fleecing.. (i.e C level prospects and @$10mm in salary)

[theobird]

If they ate 25 million of Tex deal, I would send them Nick Markakis and his entire salary. Let the bashing begin.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Mark Teixeira would immediately be our best offensive player true or false.

[RVAbird]

Yeah I just saw that... I wonder why Fangraphs is so much higher?

Largely the defensive component (BBRef uses TotalZone while Fangraphs uses UZR). TZ had Tex at -1, UZR had him +8. BBRef also gives stronger weight to OBP than does Fangraphs.

If you average the two (which I doubt makes much sense) here is what it looks like

2008 - 7.35

2009 - 5.55

2010 - 3.65

2011 - 3.33

Nonetheless the price tag (and I am not going to lie the team we would be helping) would really be prohibitive to my willingness to consider it. The Yankees would really have to be willing to accept a fleecing.. (i.e C level prospects and @$10mm in salary)

Again, when you're looking for trends you need to ask yourself why you've selected the sample you have. You are still beginning your sample with an outlier. Look at the two seasons before 2008 - Tex posted fWAR of 3.3 and 4.3 respectively, almost mirror images of the last two seasons. That's just the kind of player Tex is. He was never a 7 WAR player. He was always a 3-6 WAR player.

I won't argue that he's worth 22.5 MM annually, particularly from age 32-36, because he's not. That's why I wouldn't make the deal unless serious money was being kicked back. But I also don't agree that Tex is in some massive decline. I think he was largely overrated to begin with, and I think there are some signs that suggest he was better than his slash line indicated over the last season or two.