Trade for Mark Teixeira?

[LookinUp]

Anyone know where to find his spray charts, by year? He seems to be an extreme pull hitter these days. I wonder what effect the kiddie porch in right field has had on his approach.

If we could jettison Reynolds's contract, I'd love to find a way to get both Wright (the next Beltre, IMO) and Tex in our lineup. Now, about that pitching...

[TiredofLosing20]

Largely the defensive component (BBRef uses TotalZone while Fangraphs uses UZR). TZ had Tex at -1, UZR had him +8. BBRef also gives stronger weight to OBP than does Fangraphs.

Again, when you're looking for trends you need to ask yourself why you've selected the sample you have. You are still beginning your sample with an outlier. Look at the two seasons before 2008 - Tex posted fWAR of 3.3 and 4.3 respectively, almost mirror images of the last two seasons. That's just the kind of player Tex is. He was never a 7 WAR player. He was always a 3-6 WAR player.

I won't argue that he's worth 22.5 MM annually, particularly from age 32-36, because he's not. That's why I wouldn't make the deal unless serious money was being kicked back. But I also don't agree that Tex is in some massive decline. I think he was largely overrated to begin with, and I think there are some signs that suggest he was better than his slash line indicated over the last season or two.

Really there wasn't an agenda here.. I went to his stat page and looked at the last 4 years.. I assumed his 7 WAR year was his peak.. Since that year he has declining numbers. I don't know what else to tell you. Should I ignore all the trends and just chalk it up to bad luck or is it reasonable to suggest that he is not as good now as he was four years ago which is really all I was trying to say.

So that I can't be criticized for stacking the stats here are his BBRef WARs

.2

4.3

6.0

3.8

5.0

7.3

5.9

4.1

2.4

So going forward do you expect him to continue to be a 6 WAR player? Which really is my only point. I don't expect him to be below replacement but I suspect he may be much closer to the 3 WAR guy than the 6 WAR guy going forward. Do you expect him to even be a 4.5 WAR player over the next 5 years?

The trend to me says that there are signs that he isn't the guy he was when he signed a $180 million dollar contract. I think we all agree with that. I still say I am willing to pay him around $12mm a year for him. Part of that is because he is much more likely to be the 3.5-4.5 WAR guy over the next few year than the 5.5-7 WAR guy he was when he got paid and frankly, part of it is that taking him off the Yankees payroll will likely helping them out of what is already a terrible contract.

[Stotle]

Really there wasn't an agenda here.. I went to his stat page and looked at the last 4 years.. I assumed his 7 WAR year was his peak.. Since that year he has declining numbers. I don't know what else to tell you. Should I ignore all the trends and just chalk it up to bad luck or is it reasonable to suggest that he is not as good now as he was four years ago which is really all I was trying to say.

So that I can't be criticized for stacking the stats here are his BBRef WARs

.2

4.3

6.0

3.8

5.0

7.3

5.9

4.1

2.4

So going forward do you expect him to continue to be a 6 WAR player? Which really is my only point. I don't expect him to be below replacement but I suspect he may be much closer to the 3 WAR guy than the 6 WAR guy going forward. Do you expect him to even be a 4.5 WAR player over the next 5 years?

The trend to me says that there are signs that he isn't the guy he was when he signed a $180 million dollar contract. I think we all agree with that. I still say I am willing to pay him around $12mm a year for him. Part of that is because he is much more likely to be the 3.5-4.5 WAR guy over the next few year than the 5.5-7 WAR guy he was when he got paid and frankly, part of it is that taking him off the Yankees payroll will likely helping them out of what is already a terrible contract.

If you think he's a 3.5-4.5 WAR player then you should be willing to pay him somewhere in the ballpark of $16 - 25 MM a year, depending on the year.

[sangar]

Anyone know where to find his spray charts, by year? He seems to be an extreme pull hitter these days. I wonder what effect the kiddie porch in right field has had on his approach.

If we could jettison Reynolds's contract, I'd love to find a way to get both Wright (the next Beltre, IMO) and Tex in our lineup. Now, about that pitching...

Does this mean you think Wright is the next historically great defensive 3B? Wright is a good hitter who's defensive numbers suggest he is headed for DH duties and, regardless of WAR, will never provide the overall value that Beltre does.

[PrivateO]

It's stupid, it doesn't make sense, but yes, I still hold a bit of a grudge.

It'd be hard to root for him.

And on top of that, he isn't the player we wanted in 2008.

[TiredofLosing20]

If you think he's a 3.5-4.5 WAR player then you should be willing to pay him somewhere in the ballpark of $16 - 25 MM a year, depending on the year.

I would be willing to pay him something on the low end of that range for the next two years...

[kman123]

If the Yankees will eat a chunk of his contract AND be willing to take Gregg and someone like Tillman you'd be stupid not to take him. He's declining but he will still bring value to our club, and if he's cheap then I'd consider that a good acquisition.

I'd even be willing to do Guthrie + Gregg if we can get a tor this season.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you think he's a 3.5-4.5 WAR player then you should be willing to pay him somewhere in the ballpark of $16 - 25 MM a year, depending on the year.

If you're 100% confident that he's a 3.5-4.5 win player, and that there's no fear of decline or collapse or injury.

That's the difference between Fangraphs' valuations and real contracts. 5 wins is worth 20-some $million in retrospect. Nobody is guaranteed 5 wins, so there's a discount for the risk.

[kman123]

1) No grudge, but he is declining. If we can't find another solid CI this offseason then I'd entertain the idea.

2) You can't disregard the contract and what it would take to get him. I'd entertain trading for him if the Yanks ate some of his contract and we managed to make some upgrades to the rotation this offseason. Then we could afford to lose Guthrie.

[Stotle]

If you're 100% confident that he's a 3.5-4.5 win player, and that there's no fear of decline or collapse or injury.

That's the difference between Fangraphs' valuations and real contracts. 5 wins is worth 20-some $million in retrospect. Nobody is guaranteed 5 wins, so there's a discount for the risk.

I wasn't using Fangraph's calculation (which I think is high as a general matter but low with regards to certain player types).

EDIT: Do you think ARod, Teix, Crawford, Sabathia, etc. got those contracts because the Yankees and Sox believed that none of those players were a risk to decline or get injured?

[DrungoHazewood]

I wasn't using Fangraph's calculation (which I think is high as a general matter but low with regards to certain player types).

EDIT: Do you think ARod, Teix, Crawford, Sabathia, etc. got those contracts because the Yankees and Sox believed that none of those players were a risk to decline or get injured?

I believe that Teixeira got his deal because the Yanks believed he was going to be worth that amount of money. In the three years prior to his contract he was worth roughly five wins a season, or maybe $22-23M. You discount that for the risk of decline and injury, then you have to guess at what inflation would be like. The Yanks probably figured those two things about cancel out (this was prior to the economy tanking), so they came up with $20-some million a year.

What they certainly didn't do is just take his 7+ win 2008 season and just pay him $4.5M x 7 = $31.5M a year for the next eight years. They factored in a weighted average of his performance, risk, inflation, and other factors.

[Stotle]

I believe that Teixeira got his deal because the Yanks believed he was going to be worth that amount of money. In the three years prior to his contract he was worth roughly five wins a season, or maybe $22-23M. You discount that for the risk of decline and injury, then you have to guess at what inflation would be like. The Yanks probably figured those two things about cancel out (this was prior to the economy tanking), so they came up with $20-some million a year.

What they certainly didn't do is just take his 7+ win 2008 season and just pay him $4.5M x 7 = $31.5M a year for the next eight years. They factored in a weighted average of his performance, risk, inflation, and other factors.

You aren't suggesting that's what I was doing, right? I honestly don't know what you were getting at, or are now getting at.

[DrungoHazewood]

You aren't suggesting that's what I was doing, right? I honestly don't know what you were getting at, or are now getting at.

I've kind of forgotten where we started, and why we're doing this...

I guess you just had a post where you suggested that someone should be willing to pay a 3.5-4.5 win player 16-25 million a year, and I took that to mean you were basically just taking average free agent prices at face value. Somehow we ended up arguing about things I'm pretty sure we agree on...

[mweb]

First off, no I do not want him, but that's because of his disappointing play rather than me having any issues with him. Like others have said, we'd have to get a decent amount of money back and/or some other value in the trade.

What I find funny is that we still see people periodically complaining that the O's didn't get Tex, yet he hasn't even been worth his contract over the first 3 years, which bodes poorly for the next 5 years. If anything, there should be a bunch of posts stating that we dodged a bullet there. Not only due to his performance, but also because his presence would not have boosted this team to .500, and certainly not the playoffs.

[JTrea81]

BBRef uses Total Zone to calculate defense which is less reliable than UZR.

With that said Tex was worth 4.2 fWAR this past season.

If the Yankees were to eat about a year's worth of salary I'd gladly take him. The question is who would you deal?

Manny Machado is going to be their #1 target obviously...