Chris Davis

[CA-ORIOLE]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1042

I linked this article because I wanted something to back up that it's usually the guy behind that protects. However, as the piece states, largely a myth. Could be for any number of reasons.

Yeah that's what I said in my post here, but I did brainfart and had to correct it earlier. I've read the article many times and others. Tom Tango did an excellent study. In any event, it's been show to be fairly meaningless for the most part (at least in terms of individual stats). Davis will be a better hitter when he stops swinging at bad pitches and changes his approach. I don't think he's got enough plate discipline to be much more than a .800 OPS guy, but he'll probably need to hit for a .290 plus average to make that happen imo. That said he has looked better so far this year.

But who knows, guys can change, but they usually don't change much in that respect. Plate discipline is more inherent and only something you can learn/improve to a limited extent. Andino has become much more patient and displayed a good batting eye, but I would say that's a skill he always had but probably didn't exercise much in the minors. Not so sure about Davis.

[Il BuonO]

Me neither, however, I was encouraged by the walk he had. As someone else said, I thought it wad his best AB. He just needs to recognize that to make himself a better hitter.

[Va Beach O's fan]

We didn't pick Chris Davis up so he can draw walks in front of Nick Johnson just so he can turn around and ground into a double play.

It was a good at bat, but Davis in on the team to be a power hitter, not a high on base guy.

And congrats, you found one article that says being protected isn't a real thing.

I think Albert pujols, who now has kendrys morales batting behind him instead of matt holliday, would beg to differ. I could find you examples of plenty of people who think being protected matters, but it really is just an opinion type of deal.

I'm sure if you scour through all of baseball history, you can find plenty of arguments either way of guys who declined or excelled based on who was batting around them.

[33rdst]

When a player sees a fastball in the count is a very significant variable regarding his success. If a hitter can sit on a fastball in a full count because he's pretty certain the pitcher doesn't want to walk him to get to Fielder is a huge advantage. The author may have shown that pitch distribution didn't change significantly but he admits that he didn't account for the "when" factor, a variable we shouldn't simply shrug off.

[wildcard]

Davis has been so far about what I expected offensively. Plus power, low OBP. However his defense is worse than I expected. He let too many bounced throws get by him. He doesn't save errors for the other infielders nearly enough.

Davis, Betemit, Reynolds and Reimold all have looked like DHs when they play the field.

[jamalshw]

We didn't pick Chris Davis up so he can draw walks in front of Nick Johnson just so he can turn around and ground into a double play.

It was a good at bat' date=' but [b']Davis in on the team to be a power hitter, not a high on base guy.[/b]

And congrats, you found one article that says being protected isn't a real thing.

I think Albert pujols, who now has kendrys morales batting behind him instead of matt holliday, would beg to differ. I could find you examples of plenty of people who think being protected matters, but it really is just an opinion type of deal.

I'm sure if you scour through all of baseball history, you can find plenty of arguments either way of guys who declined or excelled based on who was batting around them.

I disagree with your entire post, but mostly the highlighted section. Yes, Davis is known for his power (and Ks), but to say getting on base is not his job (or 'what he was brought here to do') is incorrect. Davis was brought here to help the Orioles offense improve and help them win games. That's why he was targeted when you look at the big picture. Offensive players help the team win by scoring runs. It is much easier for a team to score runs when hitters get on base. Would I prefer him hit a home run to take a walk? Of course. But, would I prefer 30 homers and a .300 OBP to 25 homers and a .320 (or better)? No.

As for the idea of protection, there is something there, but I think it can be overblown. I don't think Morales instead of Holliday is the sole (or even main) reason for Pujol's struggles, but I do think it may be part of it.

The hitters behind you in the line-up may impact the pitches you see as they may not challenge you with a fastball down the middle because they'd rather walk you and give that pitch to a Nick Johnson instead. That is true. However, as others have pointed out, having a weak hitter behind you should not change a skilled hitter's approach. A hitter should take what is given to him and if that's a walk instead of a pitch to hit, so be it.

[TiredofLosing20]

Who would have guessed that after 19 games, Davis would have a higher OPS than Gonzalez, Fielder, Teixiera, and Pujols. I am sure it won't stay that way but kudos to Davis for his good start.

Also in honor of SG, Kotchmen has a .498 OPS

[Sanfran327]

Davis is definitely a hacker, but power guys should be agressive. He's not going to be Joey Votto, but he's not going to be Garret Atkins, either. I'm satisfied with him for now. He's basically a better version of Luke Scott (as in similar offensive production and better defensive player).

[Todd-O]

I think Davis is off to a good start... Looks like he could be a player, IMO. His power potential might just tip the scales in his favor. He just needs to stay disciplined and wait for his pitch.

[Va Beach O's fan]

Doesn't everyone? Ha

[Frobby]

Yeah that's what I said in my post here, but I did brainfart and had to correct it earlier. I've read the article many times and others. Tom Tango did an excellent study. In any event, it's been show to be fairly meaningless for the most part (at least in terms of individual stats). Davis will be a better hitter when he stops swinging at bad pitches and changes his approach. I don't think he's got enough plate discipline to be much more than a .800 OPS guy, but he'll probably need to hit for a .290 plus average to make that happen imo. That said he has looked better so far this year.

There's no question the power is there, but his strike zone judgment is not very good. He swings at a lot of inside pitches he can't handle -- high fastballs in on the hands and breaking stuff at the ankles. Those are the pitches he needs to recognize and lay off.

[badcobully]

I think Davis's strikeout (or unproductive out) potential would be much more tolerable in a lineup that didn't include Reynolds and Nick Johnson. Especially when they are all grouped together. Also if Hardy, Markakis, Reynolds, and Chavez, etc. were hitting consistently than Davis would be able to have his 0-10 streaks and the O's could still score some runs.

I am not sold on him to be the O's 1st bagger of the future yet but I'll take him. For now he is solid and better than anything else we have. As far as defense, he seems to pick some tough balls out of the dirt and then makes some routine throws look very difficult. He also comes off the bag an awful lot to tag the runner. I know this is better/safer than allowing the ball to go out of play, but I've seen 2 or 3 throws that in full speed seemed to pull him off the bag, but when you see it in slo-mo the throw is really close to being in line. I also realize that with a runner bearing down on him and the throw getting close to them it is safest to pull off and catch it and apply a swipe tag. I want him to be better than he is, but he still could be a good 1b before it is all over.

Does anyone know about his work ethic? Does he work extra? Is he unmotivated? Any judgments?

[PaulFolk]

I have a pretty good feeling about Chris Davis. I am really excited about this guy and very happy to have what I consider a true 1st baseman on this team. He has been getting a lot of slack on here, but I disagree with those who don't think Davis is the answer for us at 1st base. My eyes tell me he is above average with the glove and his ceiling at the plate is sky high. I really can't believe the talent that AM fleeced the Rangers out of, but that goes to show you just how deep the Ranger system is.

Your eyes have been watching a different Chris Davis than mine have. Davis has not looked impressive at all defensively. Several times he's dropped throws to first base that were thrown directly at him. He's also been below average at scoops/picks. Even Mark Reynolds, in his stay at 1B last year, seemed better at scooping throws than Davis is (which isn't to say Reynolds was a better defender overall).

[El Gordo]

Your eyes have been watching a different Chris Davis than mine have. Davis has not looked impressive at all defensively. Several times he's dropped throws to first base that were thrown directly at him. He's also been below average at scoops/picks. Even Mark Reynolds, in his stay at 1B last year, seemed better at scooping throws than Davis is (which isn't to say Reynolds was a better defender overall).

How can we say a player is above or below average without some benchmark for what average is? Compared to what? Reynolds looked better to my eye in terms of making picks, but I have no idea whether he was above or below average unless I look at numbers, which no one seems to give any credence to. In less than a months play I think a couple of dropped easy throws are as meaningless an Tulo's 6 E's.

[Kinvan]

I feel like he has been a little more selective this year and you have to love that power. Cannot wait till the summer when it is hot and the ball is flying out even more.