Should the Orioles trade some of their pitching this off season?

[EagleOriole]

Its okay to have 1 player that will always be at or near 200Ks ...But not 2-3. Reynolds/Davis is bad for this team.

I don't quite follow. A strikeout is an out. I would like their contact rates to improve, but Davis hit 33 HR and Reynolds is clearly capable of 35-40 HR. So they strike out a lot? They both played a lot this year and we made the playoffs?

[EagleOriole]

Yes, what someone did last year is exacty what they'll do going forward. His career OBP is .310, and he never got over .305 from 2009-2011.Can't you even acknowledge the possibility that Davis' 120 point OPS jump was his peak, and not just a waypoint on his inevitable journey to greatness? The reason he set a career high in PAs in 2012 wasn't that nobody gave him a real chance before. It was because he hadn't played well in four years!Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and I hope he puts up a 900 OPS and hits the warehouse a couple times in '13. But I'm not holding my breath.

You think he will regress getting regular ABs? You think he hit his peak? Just wondering if this is your opinion or you are just throwing out possibilities. I don't think anyone used the word greatness, maybe wildcard has, but I think he could be a solid contributor as a DH with some time at 1B, LF, RF.

[wildcard]

Yes, what someone did last year is exacty what they'll do going forward. His career OBP is .310, and he never got over .305 from 2009-2011.Can't you even acknowledge the possibility that Davis' 120 point OPS jump was his peak, and not just a waypoint on his inevitable journey to greatness? The reason he set a career high in PAs in 2012 wasn't that nobody gave him a real chance before. It was because he hadn't played well in four years!Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and I hope he puts up a 900 OPS and hits the warehouse a couple times in '13. But I'm not holding my breath.

Well nothing is a guarantee. However Buck showed more faith in Davis then any manager before him. And the results were he had his best year. He deserves to be an everyday player next year and get 600 at bats. He could do better or worse but I think Buck has enough faith in him to give him the at bats.

Then there is the projection on how he will do if he get 600 at bats. There are several factors.

1) Buck has the faith in him to stay with him through the slumps which allows him to be in the lineup for the hot streaks.

2) He is be 27 which should be his peak year according to statistical averages.

3) His number of home runs and RBI have to be projected to go up if he gets the increased number of at bats to 600.

4) Based on who is in the lineup Davis will be a middle of the order batter, probably clean up.

5) With high or potentially high OBP guys in front of him (Markakis, McLouth, Reimold, Hoes, Jones and/or Betemit at different times) he should have the runners on base to drive in a lot of runs.

Projections are not a guarantee of anything. They are looking at factors and recent performance and guessing what will happen. Whether you do it, I do it or Buck does it, there is one thing in common ----its a guess.

I am only projecting two O's to have 600 at bats next year. Jones and Davis. Not Markakis or Hardy because they have both had injuries in their last three years.

I just think Davis has shown the durability, performance and has earned Buck's faith to get to 600 at bats and last year's performance has earned him a positive outlook on his statistical peak year in 2013.

[DrungoHazewood]

You think he will regress getting regular ABs? You think he hit his peak? Just wondering if this is your opinion or you are just throwing out possibilities. I don't think anyone used the word greatness, maybe wildcard has, but I think he could be a solid contributor as a DH with some time at 1B, LF, RF.

I think the most likely case is that Davis continues to hit for power but have long stretches where he flails and can't buy a base hit. Given his age and the fact he has a 1600-PA track record in the majors, he's probably going to hit around his career mark of .775. I don't think you can just dismiss the fact that over the prior three years he had a .695 OPS, a .289 OBP, and was worth about -2 WAR. He showed some improvement last year, yes, but you can't assume he'll hold onto that improvement. No more than you could assume Robert Andino's career-best .688 OPS in '11 was going to continue.

Here's a list of regular, defensively-challenged corner players with at best 4:1 K:BB ratios:

                                                                                                                                               Rk             Player WAR/pos Rfield  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS    Pos1        Dave Roberts     3.1     -5  83 17 503 1973  22 SDP NL 127 479  56 137 20  3 21  64   3   1  3  3   6 11  2 .286 .310 .472 .782    *542          Bo Jackson     2.4     -4 172 39 561 1989  26 KCR AL 135 515  86 132 15  6 32 105   8   3  0  4  10 26  9 .256 .310 .495 .805  *7D/83        Dave Kingman     2.4     -3 135 28 510 1976  27 NYM NL 123 474  70 113 14  1 37  86   4   5  0  3  11  7  4 .238 .286 .506 .793  *93/74         Mark Trumbo     2.3     -1 153 36 586 2012  26 LAA AL 144 544  66 146 19  3 32  95   3   4  0  2  12  4  5 .268 .317 .491 .808 79D3/55            Jim Rice     2.0     -1 123 28 624 1976  23 BOS AL 153 581  75 164 25  8 25  85   2   4  2  9  18  8  5 .282 .315 .482 .797    *7D6    Kevin Kouzmanoff     1.9      0 139 23 668 2008  26 SDP NL 154 624  71 162 31  4 23  84   3  15  0  6  14  0  0 .260 .299 .433 .732     *57         Jim Presley     1.7     -2 172 32 660 1986  24 SEA AL 155 616  83 163 33  4 27 107   3   4  3  5  18  0  4 .265 .303 .463 .766     *58             Lee May     1.7     -3  97 17 590 1974  31 HOU NL 152 556  59 149 26  0 24  85   2   7  1  9  12  1  0 .268 .294 .444 .738     *39          Ron Coomer     1.4      0  91 22 550 1997  30 MIN AL 140 523  63 156 30  2 13  85   5   0  0  5  11  4  3 .298 .324 .438 .761 *5/3D910        Chris Davis     1.3     -5 169 37 562 2012  26 BAL AL 139 515  75 139 20  0 33  85   6   7  0  3   8  2  3 .270 .326 .501 .827 D397/111    Henry Rodriguez     1.3     -6 160 37 576 1996  28 MON NL 145 532  81 147 42  1 36 103   7   3  0  4  10  2  0 .276 .325 .562 .887  *73/912       Dave Kingman     1.2     -4 153 34 543 1975  26 NYM NL 134 502  65 116 22  1 36  88   5   4  1  2  13  7  5 .231 .284 .494 .778 *735/913         Corey Hart     1.1     -3 109 27 657 2008  26 MIL NL 157 612  76 164 45  6 20  91   2   5  4  9  17 23  7 .268 .300 .459 .759     *914       Jacque Jones     1.1     -4 105 21 548 2003  28 MIN AL 136 517  76 157 33  1 16  69   2   4  1  5  10 13  1 .304 .333 .464 .797   *7D915     Dante Bichette     1.0    -18  96 22 612 1995  31 COL NL 139 579 102 197 38  2 40 128   5   4  0  7  16 13  9 .340 .364 .620 .984    *7916     Mariano Duncan     0.9     -6 108 17 605 1992  29 PHI NL 142 574  71 153 40  3  8  50   0   5  5  4  15 23  3 .267 .292 .389 .680  746/517        Jorge Cantu     0.8    -22  83 19 631 2005  23 TBD AL 150 598  73 171 40  1 28 117   1   6  0  7  24  1  0 .286 .311 .497 .808   *45D18      Chris Johnson     0.7    -10 132 31 528 2012  27 TOT NL 136 488  48 137 28  5 15  76   2   4  1  4  18  5  1 .281 .326 .451 .777  *5/3919       Butch Hobson     0.6    -12 162 27 637 1977  25 BOS AL 159 593  77 157 33  5 30 112   4   4 10  3  17  5  4 .265 .300 .489 .789     *520       Delmon Young     0.5     -1 127 26 681 2007  21 TBD AL 162 645  65 186 38  0 13  93   2   3  0  7  23 10  3 .288 .316 .408 .723  *98/D21      Carl Crawford     0.0     -2 104 23 539 2011  29 BOS AL 130 506  65 129 29  7 11  56   1   3  2  4   7 18  6 .255 .289 .405 .694   *7/D22      Larry Herndon     0.0     -2  91 19 521 1980  26 SFG NL 139 493  54 127 17 11  8  49   1   1  4  4  10  8  8 .258 .284 .385 .670    87923    Alfonso Soriano    -0.3     -9 113 27 508 2011  35 CHC NL 137 475  50 116 27  1 26  88   4   4  0  2  15  2  1 .244 .289 .469 .759   *7/D24       Jose Guillen    -0.4     -2 100 21 605 1998  22 PIT NL 153 573  60 153 38  2 14  84   0   6  1  4   7  3  5 .267 .298 .414 .712   *9/825        Cory Snyder    -0.7     -9 166 31 615 1987  24 CLE AL 157 577  74 136 24  2 33  82   4   1  0  6   3  5  1 .236 .273 .456 .729   *967Rk             Player WAR/pos Rfield  SO BB  PA Year Age  Tm Lg   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS    Pos26       Vernon Wells    -0.8    -11  86 20 529 2011  32 LAA AL 131 505  60 110 15  4 25  66   0   1  0  3   8  9  4 .218 .248 .412 .660 *789/D27       Jose Guillen    -0.9    -11 106 23 633 2008  32 KCR AL 153 598  66 158 42  1 20  97   3   9  0  3  23  2  1 .264 .300 .438 .738    97D28     Preston Wilson    -1.1    -12 121 29 537 2006  31 TOT NL 135 501  58 132 25  2 17  72   3   4  0  3  20 12  2 .263 .307 .423 .730  *79/829       Delmon Young    -1.2     -3 112 20 608 2012  26 DET AL 151 574  54 153 27  1 18  74   1   7  0  7  20  0  2 .267 .296 .411 .707    *D730    Jeffrey Leonard    -1.2     -9 107 21 531 1985  29 SFG NL 133 507  49 122 20  3 17  62   5   1  1  1  19 11  6 .241 .272 .393 .664   *7/831        Jim Presley    -2.0    -21 130 29 577 1990  28 ATL NL 140 541  59 131 34  1 19  72   0   3  0  4  10  1  1 .242 .282 .414 .697    *5332       Jose Guillen    -3.4    -28  88 17 526 1997  21 PIT NL 143 498  58 133 20  5 14  70   0   8  0  3  16  1  2 .267 .300 .412 .712   *9/8

That's not real impressive. Davis already finds himself in the top third of players with that skillset.

[wildcard]

You think he will regress getting regular ABs? You think he hit his peak? Just wondering if this is your opinion or you are just throwing out possibilities. I don't think anyone used the word greatness, maybe wildcard has, but I think he could be a solid contributor as a DH with some time at 1B, LF, RF.

I have not called Davis great or used the word greatness. Jon uses exaggeration to emphasize his points. I am projecting for for 42 HR and 110 RBI with a 277/330/511/841. But projecting is not doing, its only projecting.

[Frobby]

Yeah, that dude is a stud...Trumbo that is, wish we had a guy like that in our lineup:

wait - lets check these numbers:

Option A - 26 years old - .268/.317/.491/.808 with 32 HR, 95 RBI

Option B - 26 years old - .270/.326/.501/.827 with 33 HR, 85 RBI

I could have sworn someone on this board compared Chris Davis to Mark Trumbo early in the year? Who was that?:scratchchinhmm:

While you do deserve credit for making the analogy, at the time you made it, Trumbo was posting a .967 OPS. So, if your comparison was intended to imply that Davis could be a guy capable of posting a .950+ OPS, I don't think it really proved anything. If you were saying Davis is a strong guy capable of putting together some hot streaks and hitting 30+ homers, then you have been proven correct.

Here is a link to your original post on the subject, dated July 23. Trumbo had a .560 OPS for the rest of the season. Very similar to some of Davis' cold streaks. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/123718-Preaching-patience-with-Chris-Davis?highlight=trumbo

[Brendan25]

It will depend on who is really interested. I expect to see the interest in Hamilton diminished by his issues. Obviously somebody will be interested in him...But at what length

I think this opinion that you have is the biggest reason why you have interest in Hamilton. You think you can get him for 5 years with a clause saying that if he fails a drug test he gets paid nothing. Someone is going to give him more then that.

If Hamilton signs a 4 year - 80M deal, then you can say we should have gotten him. And for that deal I may agree with you. Right now we are arguing about what we think he is worth, I think. YOu want him because of what you think he is going to get. I don't because of what I think he is going to get.

We'll see what he gets.

[Il BuonO]

I think this opinion that you have is the biggest reason why you have interest in Hamilton. You think you can get him for 5 years with a clause saying that if he fails a drug test he gets paid nothing. Someone is going to give him more then that.

If Hamilton signs a 4 year - 80M deal, then you can say we should have gotten him. And for that deal I may agree with you. Right now we are arguing about what we think he is worth, I think. YOu want him because of what you think he is going to get. I don't because of what I think he is going to get.

We'll see what he gets.

Unfortunately Johnny, I think Brendan's right here. I'd like Hamilton, too, but with the contracts Fielder and Pujols signed last year as indicators he may get close to what he is asking for in money and years. His risks aren't great vs his production or most likely to be overlooked by some team out there.

[Dark Helmet]

I think this opinion that you have is the biggest reason why you have interest in Hamilton. You think you can get him for 5 years with a clause saying that if he fails a drug test he gets paid nothing. Someone is going to give him more then that.

If Hamilton signs a 4 year - 80M deal, then you can say we should have gotten him. And for that deal I may agree with you. Right now we are arguing about what we think he is worth, I think. YOu want him because of what you think he is going to get. I don't because of what I think he is going to get.

We'll see what he gets.

I honestly think Hamilton wont get 6 guaranteed years. I think 4 or 5 with vesting options, will get it done. I think he could be had for 5/130.

After a report I saw on MLB network, that said Hamilton led mlb in chasing pitches out of the strike zone, im not sure I want him now. Unless 4/110 could get him.

[Dark Helmet]

Unfortunately Johnny, I think Brendan's right here. I'd like Hamilton, too, but with the contracts Fielder and Pujols signed last year as indicators he may get close to what he is asking for in money and years. His risks aren't great vs his production or most likely to be overlooked by some team out there.

In fairness, Hamilton isnt Pujols. Hes never been thought of, as the best pure player in the game. And, Fielder had age on his side. Fielder never gets those years, if hes 31/32.

[Dark Helmet]

Im not sure who, or if anyone would agree on this contract. But, the best contract to offer Hamilton, would be a frontloaded deal. Something like 30,30,25,25,20 with a 20 mil vesting option for plate app or a 20 mil team option with a 5 mil buyout. Thats at worst 5 years and 135 guaranteed and couldd be 6/150. I think thats a fair deal.

[Brendan25]

Im not sure who, or if anyone would agree on this contract. But, the best contract to offer Hamilton, would be a frontloaded deal. Something like 30,30,25,25,20 with a 20 mil vesting option for plate app or a 20 mil team option with a 5 mil buyout. Thats at worst 5 years and 135 guaranteed and couldd be 6/150. I think thats a fair deal.

Players usually don't like agreeing ot those deals because it's easier to cut them at the end of the contract.

[Il BuonO]

Players usually don't like agreeing ot those deals because it's easier to cut them at the end of the contract.

Thats why the majority of contracts today are back loaded.

[Il BuonO]

In fairness, Hamilton isnt Pujols. Hes never been thought of, as the best pure player in the game. And, Fielder had age on his side. Fielder never gets those years, if hes 31/32.

I know that. My point was that someone will overpay for who he is.

[Dark Helmet]

Players usually don't like agreeing ot those deals because it's easier to cut them at the end of the contract.

They're still going to get paid. And a team like the O's have always shown a hesitence to just cut a player.