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Reynold's isn't a "high ceiling guy". For his career he's a below average player. HR's are nice but they aren't everything considering Reynolds overall game and weaknesses. There are a number of ways the team can be improved without him.

Depends on your definition of high ceiling. Reynolds has had an .892 OPS season, with 44 HR and 102 RBI. If he was capable of reproducing that, I'd call it a pretty high ceiling. Frankly, I'd be pretty happy if he could give us an .800+ OPS as he did in 2011, while playing well at 1B.

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Depends on your definition of high ceiling. Reynolds has had an .892 OPS season, with 44 HR and 102 RBI. If he was capable of reproducing that, I'd call it a pretty high ceiling. Frankly, I'd be pretty happy if he could give us an .800+ OPS as he did in 2011, while playing well at 1B.

Based on his trends, Reynold's repeating that performance seems more like betting on a lottery pick than high upside imo. That said, it they end up signing Reynolds I won't necessarily be disappointed. I just think there is opportunity to better the team for the same/similar/lesser price. For example, I'd be happy with Keppinger and Koji for about the same money we might end up paying Reynolds. Not to mention trade options we appear to be exploring. I just think there are tons of ways to do this and the O's are just doing their due dilligence here. We'll see what happens on the 30th.

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It appears that ED and Dan from the Sun feel that he is being non tendered.

The sense is that the club still holds interest in Reynolds, but is willing to allow the 29-year-old to test the free-agent market with hopes they could eventually sign him for less...it’s become clear that while the Orioles like Reynolds, his toughness and the way he fits in the clubhouse, they’re not willing to risk the hefty raise he could receive through arbitration.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-orioles-thoughts-and-observations-reynolds-erbe-playoff-shares-and-more-20121126,0,5289717.story

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This makes sense to me. He is likely to get 8-9 M in arb. He wont get near that as a FA. Maybe 2/10 M. I could see TB picking him up.
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This makes sense to me. He is likely to get 8-9 M in arb. He wont get near that as a FA. Maybe 2/10 M. I could see TB picking him up.

Gomes got 2/10 from Boston. I'd much rather have Reynolds than Gomes. It is one thing if the Orioles are confident they can sign him for less than he is likely to get in arbitration, but if we non-tender Reynolds and TB signs him for 2/10, I would have a hard time understanding that one.

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Gomes got 2/10 from Boston. I'd much rather have Reynolds than Gomes. It is one thing if the Orioles are confident they can sign him for less than he is likely to get in arbitration, but if we non-tender Reynolds and TB signs him for 2/10, I would have a hard time understanding that one.

Dan Duquette may want to spend the money differently. He really seems to be working within a budget. Like Tampa does. The Rays are not resigning Price and their gamble on Longoria is their big off season move.

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Since when is 1.5m, the difference between 7.5 and 9m, hefty to a ball club with at 90M payroll? Its more about getting a MOO bat. The O's don't consider Reynolds at MOO. This would be an attempt to get a hitter whose bat will not go silence in the playoffs.

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Non-tendering him means he's our starting 1B next year or he's gone and we get nothing in return. I bet somebody wants Mark Reynolds for 1/8 or an extension. I'd offer him 2/15 and if he doesn't want to do it, then trade him.

I guess that's still possible, but if we could have traded him without offering him arb, I think it would already have been done. Getting a little late in the game for that now and any leverage (if there was any to begin with) would be pretty much gone at this point. If we don't make a trade by the deadline, I would think the chances of us offering him arb (or raising our offer) would increase.

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I suppose it depends on how confident the O's are that (1) no team will offer Reynolds as much as he would have earned in arbitration, and (2) if the O's match or slightly beat whatever other offers are out there, Reynolds will swallow his pride and accept their offer. It would not surprise me if the O's misjudge one of these factors, or both, and lose Reynolds.

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