Mariners, O's Displaying Strong Interest In Butler

[zxlkho]

Am I the only one who doesn't get the love for Butler?

Probably.

313/.373/.510 in a pitcher's park last year. With those numbers, it doesn't really matter that he can't play 1B

[MurphDogg]

Probably.

313/.373/.510 in a pitcher's park last year. With those numbers, it doesn't really matter that he can't play 1B

Kauffman Stadium is not a pitcher's park. It is neutral.

[zxlkho]

Kauffman Stadium is not a pitcher's park. It is neutral.

Fine then. Still great numbers, and he's young as well.

[ledzepp8]

Fine then. Still great numbers, and he's young as well.

Yet he was only worth 3.2 war last season. He's a fine player...wouldn't mind having him. I just think what it would take to get him is ridiculous.

[andrewrickli]

Yet he was only worth 3.2 war last season. He's a fine player...wouldn't mind having him. I just think what it would take to get him is ridiculous.

However you feel about Butler, one indisputable fact remains, the man can hit a baseball. Still though, I'm not sure fans fully realize how good he's been since the start of the 2009 season. He is just one of seven major leaguers to crack 60+ extra base hits and post an on base percentage of .360 or higher in each of the last three years. I'm not suggesting he's as good as the rest of the players on this list, because he isn't. I'm just pointing out that Butler consistently excels in two areas critical to run production and he wouldn't be easy to replace.

Here is the complete list:

Yrs From To Age

Joey Votto 3 2009 2011 25-27

Troy Tulowitzki 3 2009 2011 24-26

Albert Pujols 3 2009 2011 29-31

Adrian Gonzalez 3 2009 2011 27-29

Miguel Cabrera 3 2009 2011 26-28

Billy Butler 3 2009 2011 23-25

Ryan Braun 3 2009 2011 25-27

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Quote from here

That's how good he is. And yes, KC is a pitchers park.

[andrewrickli]

Kauffman Stadium is not a pitcher's park. It is neutral.

CF is 410

RF is 330

LF is 340

Alleys are 387

Camden CF is 400

RF is 318

LF is 333

Our LF alley is 364

Our RF alley is 373

And with Butler being a big doubles and gap to gap hitter, he would hit 30+ HR in Camden.

Not to mention he plays in a lot of pitchers parks in the AL Central. Move him to the AL East with Boston, Camden and NY, and his stats will increase.

[MurphDogg]

Quote from here

That's how good he is. And yes, KC is a pitchers park.

No. It isn't. This is quantifiable and it is a neutral park. Also, as to Butler, .360 and 60 are arbitrary endpoints that he happens to barely meet. That doesn't carry more sway than WAR.

[Roll Tide]

Probably.

313/.373/.510 in a pitcher's park last year. With those numbers, it doesn't really matter that he can't play 1B

Ditto !!!! You should get it

[RVAbird]

I would love to have Butler's bat in the lineup, but I do believe he's being overrated by some. Great bat, but as a DH he's merely above average in terms of value. He'll be paid market value for about 4 wins above replacement over the next two years and he'll probably provide about 6.

Nice target, but not Bundy-worthy. Not even close.

[MurphDogg]

CF is 410

RF is 330

LF is 340

Alleys are 387

Camden CF is 400

RF is 318

LF is 333

Our LF alley is 364

Our RF alley is 373

And with Butler being a big doubles and gap to gap hitter, he would hit 30+ HR in Camden.

Not to mention he plays in a lot of pitchers parks in the AL Central. Move him to the AL East with Boston, Camden and NY, and his stats will increase.

You can't simply look at dimensions. There are many other factors. Kaufmann is exactly neutral both last year and over the last three years. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2012.shtml

You are correct that Cleveland and Minnesota favor pitchers more than any AL East stadiums.

[ledzepp8]

Quote from here

That's how good he is. And yes, KC is a pitchers park.

Brian Roberts was a better player than Butler has been thus far in his career and he did that (basically) three seasons in a row. Would you have given up Bundy+ for him?

[andrewrickli]

Brian Roberts was a better player than Butler has been thus far in his career and he did that (basically) three seasons in a row. Would you have given up Bundy+ for him?

Considering that he would rake in the AL East hitters parks and against our divisons LH pitchers? Maybe.

In his career he has hit .320/.400/.543 (.943 OPS) against LHP.

Also take note that AL East parks are more hitter-friendly than are AL Central Parks.

[andrewrickli]

You can't simply look at dimensions. There are many other factors. Kaufmann is exactly neutral both last year and over the last three years. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2012.shtml

You are correct that Cleveland and Minnesota favor pitchers more than any AL East stadiums.

Fair enough, but for Butler's bat, he would flourish more in OPACY due to our smaller power alleys. He is a gap to gap hitter.

[RVAbird]

Dave Cameron offers a decent analysis from the Mariners point of view. Lots of Orioles-relevant stuff.

The basics: he’s a 27-year-old DH who is under team control for the next three seasons. The original contract called for him to make $8 million in base salary for each of the next two years, then a $12.5 million team option for 2015, but there are unspecified incentives in the deal that push the 2015 option up to $14.5 million. Additionally, there’s an “assignment bonus” that gets added on if he’s traded, so the actual cost to the M’s would probably be something along the lines of 3/33.

[C]learly the market for these limited defensive players is limited by the fact that they can only sign with AL teams. Toss in the AL teams that aren’t shopping for a designated hitter, and even the best DH has a pretty limited market value, given the paucity of teams who are in the market for bat-only players.

[P]eople would tell you about how having that kind of guy changes a line-up and takes the pressure off the young kids, allowing them to develop at a better rate.

But, you know who had Billy Butler as the big bat in the middle of a line-up full of young kids last year? The Royals. You know how those kids did? Lousy. Eric Hosmer was bad. Mike Moustakas was bad. The 2012 non-Butler Royals hitters posted a composite wRC+ of 90. The 2012 Mariners had a wRC+ of 87. There’s no evidence that Billy Butler’s rising tide lifted any boats.

http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/12/03/a-few-words-on-billy-butler/

[andrewrickli]

Dave Cameron offers a decent analysis from the Mariners point of view. Lots of Orioles-relevant stuff.

http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/12/03/a-few-words-on-billy-butler/

So put him in our lineup with guys that already rake (2nd in HR's) he will make our team that much better. Not to mention the only high OBP guy we truly have is Markakis.