Is Bundy this special?

[theobird]

A Stanton trade starts with Bundy and Machado. Then throw in a couple more pretty good prospects. No way I do that. No way. I think Bundy gets us Justin Upton, may have to throw in a Parker Bridwell type. I would do that.

Anyone who thinks we can get Stanton on the cheap, just keep on dreaming. If we do, I will gladly eat the crow. But it isn't reality, even considering the idiots running the Marlins. I want to aquire a young hitter as bad as the next guy. I am interested in all of Olt, Castellanos, Smoak, etc. Upton would cost more than any of those three, but Uptons cost is the ceiling for me. Smoak would be the cheapest in terms of talent, then Castellanos and then Olt. To me, that is the road we should be looking down.

[Number5]

How do you know that Bundy is a TOR SP? You don't. The same way we didn't know that Ben McDonald was never going to be a TOR. You just don't know.

To the second bolded part-how? What if Upton becomes the .900 OPS type guy? We have plenty of pitchers that are capable of filling a #3 slot in the rotation, and I'm sure in the future we will have some more prospects that will be making minimum that can fill that hole, just like Bundy will be if he doesn't pan out.

You seem to be comparing Upton's ceiling to Bundy's floor. Things can happen in either direction to make such a trade work out for either side. The facts, however, are that Bundy is under team control for 6 more years at less money than the 3 years you would have Upton, the team's need for a TOR SP is greater than the need for a left fielder, both this year and for the future, and Bundy gives us a reasonable chance at that TOR, according to a lot of scouts/baseball people who know a great deal more than I. You seem to want to totally overlook the fact that if Bundy ends up being a middle of rotation guy, his cost/value over the 6 years will be greater than Upton over 3 for $38.5 million, even if Upton reaches the heights that you seem to think are guaranteed. If Bundy totally busts and Upton becomes Willie Mays, of course the trade would have been a good one, but the odds simply don't seem to favor that outcome. It simply appears to me that we have much better chance at getting close to Upton's total projected production for the time we would have him with other players at less cost than Bundy's. I'm not really all that concerned about this, as I seriously doubt that DD would pull the trigger on this.

[sangar]

Id trade Bundy for Upton in a heartbeat.

Lets say we have the chance to draft a HS stud, or Justin Upton now...in that draft. I think most would draft Justin, it wasnt even board consensus that Bundy should be our pick. Yet we wont trade 1 for 1?

I am bias because i grew up playing with Justin and would love to see him play for my team, but from the few times i have seen Bundy pitch, i wasnt blown away like i was by Strasburg...and honestly Strasburg, Wieters, Trout, and Stanton may be the only people i wouldnt trade for Upton

Keep in mind, even after his MVP caliber year, for whatever reason, they didnt really seem like they wanted him there. Would your bosses seemingly not wanting you around affect your work focus/performance?

To be fair, there is a huge difference between a HS stud and the Bundy we have now.

[atomic]

Another thought. If you are going to pay Upton's salary you could have just went out and got Nick Swisher. A guy proven in the AL east. And you wouldn't have to give up a potential number 1 starter for him. I think the team thinks highly of Bundy or he would have been traded by now with his stock pretty high. I don't think a team with the Orioles budget constraints could make this deal. Giving up a potential ace at league minimum for a guy who is going to be making 14 million a year? I don't think Pete would approve the deal.

[El Gordo]

Reimold isn't good with a glove, and is terribly inhury prone. McLouth, while he did spark us last year, he only hit around .250. McLouth is more of a 4th OF'er.

I didn't say they are a lock to do that, they both have question marks, but both are capable of putting up an .830 OPS. Doesn't matter to me what their BA is. And if not them it's a lot easier to find someone else for LF. Pitching is the key to contending in the AL East. We need a TOR SP more than we need a bat. Our best chance to get that is to develop one, because PA will never pay for one, and we would have to give up too much in trade to acquire one. So while Bund/ Gausmann are not sure things, they are our best shot to fill the biggest hole on the team.

[Frobby]

Frobby with all due respect, there is no way that the percentage of chance that Bundy becomes a true ace is as high as 50-70%. Think about it. How many true aces are there in MLB? Let's see:

Verlander

Hernandez

Price

Sabathia

Kershaw

Cain

Weaver

Strasburg

Hammel

So by my count that is 9 pitchers that are sure fire aces.

That number figured into the number of "potential aces" leaves a very small percentage of Bundy every becoming a sure fire ace. I'm not saying that he won't, but the percentage isn't a great one.

I said TOR starter, not "true ace." There's a big difference between the two. TOR includes no. 2 starters, so long as they are consistent no. 2's and not guys who occasionally pitch to that level. So, that's what I meant when I said Bundy had a 50-70% chance of reaching that level. The odds that he becomes a "true ace" in the sense that you mean are more like 10-15%. But what is Hammel doing on your list?

[andrewrickli]

I said TOR starter, not "true ace." There's a big difference between the two. TOR includes no. 2 starters, so long as they are consistent no. 2's and not guys who occasionally pitch to that level. So, that's what I meant when I said Bundy had a 50-70% chance of reaching that level. The odds that he becomes a "true ace" in the sense that you mean are more like 10-15%. But what is Hammel doing on your list?

Ah, that makes sense now.

As to Hammel, I meant to write HAMELS as in Cole not Jason

[DrinkinWithFermi]

No, but when you need a bat, and you are a playoff contending team that isn't "rebuilding" it's what you do to get talent on the trade market. You have to trade talent to get talent. See the Rangers.

t would be different if Bundy was our only potential TOR starter in our minor league system, but we have Bundy, and Gausman, and some think that E. Rodriguez can be a top prospect one day.

We don't NEED a bat. It would be nice to have one but we did have a league-average offense in 2012 despite tons of injuries and down years from multiple regulars such as Reynolds, Hardy, and Andino. As it stands now, the offense should rank in the top 12-15 next year. And Upton's career .731 road OPS doesn't exactly scream "MOO." Bundy has a very good chance to become a legitimate #1/2 SP, which is pretty much the hardest thing to acquire in all of baseball. Solid LFs are, by comparison, are fairly easy to find without giving up a top 3 prospect.

[hoosiers]

IMO, while there may be many recipes in creating a playoff-caliber roster, there are fewer easier paths than a roster with a well-above average, cheap pitcher. I don't know how good Bundy will become, but if he is a 2/3 or better in his first three seasons, that goes a long way toward competing - especially if we get the same from Gausman. Perhaps the same is true for a top young hitter, but IMO it is less so - especially after watching some great young bats in the league last year miss the playoffs.

That said, I would have little objection to moving Bundy in the right deal.

The Os have seen top pitching prospects like Tillman, Matusz, Britton and others largely miss the mark so far (though there is still hope for all three and at least on appears to have turned the corner performance-wise as a SP). Still, it is what Gausman/Bundy could become that makes it so difficult to trade them and I would not be interested in moving either one for Upton.

[Crazysilver03]

This a million times over. The closest comp to MLB is probably AA. We have heard it before that if you can play at AA, you can play in the MLB. At AA, Bundy averaged about .5 walks every inning.

Are you for real? 16 innings? Mind is made up?

[VeveJones007]

Are you for real? 16 innings? Mind is made up?

lol, this was my first thought as well. The argument may as well be "He didn't dominate at the major league level last year, so they should trade him while his value is highest."

[Crazysilver03]

To get proven young talent, you usually have to give proven talent. In this case with Bundy we can get proven talent for POTENTIAL talent, which is nice.

You KNOW that Upton can steal 20 bases, get on base, hit at least 20 HR, and hit around .280, with the potential to be a perineal .900 OPS type guy.

All we know about Bundy is that he pitched to a 3.24 ERA in AA, and had about .5 walks per inning. He hasn't proven ANYTHING at the ML level.

Now, would I deal Bundy for a DH in Butler? NO!

But for a potential MVP type player, with speed, power, on base capabilities, great defense, and a guy that can fill a revolving door for us? Absolutely.

You aren't trying to have a discussion because you aren't equating both players fairly.

You even mention that Upton has the potential to be .900 OPS guy. As someone stated, you are trying to compare Bundy's floor to Upton's ceiling without listening to the other side. The fact that you cite 16 AA innings in HIS FIRST PROFESSIONAL SEASON is asinine.

And the OF is a revolving door? Last time I checked, our pitching was even more of a revolving door. Bundy has the highest (or second highest) potential in the system to become an ace, over every other pitcher.

[skanar]

I've been working on a project for a while that would determine a prospect's chances of success in the big leagues. It's still a work in progress, but I've mostly completed the part that looks at how well BA America rankings predict success/failure.

If Bundy is ranked either 1st or 2nd, my model suggests that he has about a 75-80% chance to be a successful major league pitcher (which is defined for my model's purposes as having >5 career fWAR) and about a 40-45% chance to be a star (which is defined as having >20 career fWAR).

I'm still working on this, and it's likely that the model performs worst at the edges (ie, it does a better job making predictions for those ranked #20-30 than those ranked #1 or #100).

[baltfan]

In the post PED era, you win championships with great starters.

Giants, Phillies, Cardinals all had TOR guys. With guys like Greinke going for what he did and other TOR guys being locked up by the teams they came up with, TOR guys are very difficult to acquire

There are very few guys in the minors capable of being TOR guys. And a lot that are capable have control issues or have to project there. Bundy has control and has stuff that doesn't have to improve that much to be a TOR starter. Upton doesn't win this team a championship. Bundy as a TOR could.

If we had a TOR already on the roster, a trade for Upton would be more palatable. But we don't, so we shouldn't trade Bundy.

[crissfan172]

Are you for real? 16 innings? Mind is made up?

Yeah...not to mention...he was 19 most of the season and in his first year of pro ball.