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Bob Haynie: Cautiously Optimistic about 2013


MemorialStadKid

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Doesn't say much, parrots a lot of the same "faith" discussions from the OH.

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2013/02/12/bob-haynie-cautiously-optimistic-about-the-orioles/

Because of the fact they didn?t make a major move, the Orioles have been dubbed one of the most disappointing teams in baseball during the offseason.

ESPN has been ripping them pretty good. Columnist David Schoenfield gave them an F grade for their lack of work.

However, I will try to be a calming voice.

Even though the headline grabbing transactions weren?t there, I still see plenty of talent on the roster.

And in the dugout.

Manager Buck Showalter is one of the best in the game. End of story.

In Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy and Chris Davis, Baltimore features some All-Star caliber talent.

Manny Machado is a star on the rise.

Led by closer Jim Johnson, the bullpen still looks to be one of the best in the majors.

The Orioles had a lot of things work for them in 2012.

They were 29-9 in one-run games and were 16-2 in extra-inning affairs. Expecting those numbers to be duplicated, I think, are a little unrealistic.

However, that doesn?t mean this squad will not find other ways to get it done on the field and in the standings.

There are still plenty of questions surrounding the 2013 Baltimore Orioles and we will address all of them over the next two months.

I believe the 2012 Orioles were not a lucky team, they were a good team.

Most of that team returns to Camden Yards on April 5th.

MSK

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I see what Duquette and Buck are trying to do. They must have sat down and looked at the roster and the options and said "We can win with this bunch, but not in 2013". The Orioles should finish with 80-85 wins given the talent on the roster in my opinion. They could have gone crazy and sold the future for a shot this year, but that would have been ridiculous. Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, and Zach Greinke were terrible ideas in my opinion, and ones I'm glad they didn't make. The only good value out there for a hitter was Nick Swisher and he clearly makes Duquette's skin crawl as much as he does mine.

The part where I disagree with them is I don't see how Joe Saunders at 1/7 negatively affects the future. He clearly makes this team better, even if isn't by a large amount. Johnny Gomes, Koji, Brandon McCarthy, are a few other moves I would have liked to have seen.

I like our lineup a good deal for this year actually. I think they're a strong bunch and should hit and field very well. The starting pitching isn't going to get it done this year though, as it stands today. That will be the shortcoming. I had them at 74 wins last year though and even their true talent level far exceeded that. Debating with doom and gloomers this year feels too much like debating with the "We'll be lucky to win 50 games" crowd last year and I'm tired of it. I just want to watch some baseball at this point. It really doesn't feel that way sometimes, but we all want the same damn thing.

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I see what Duquette and Buck are trying to do. They must have sat down and looked at the roster and the options and said "We can win with this bunch, but not in 2013". The Orioles should finish with 80-85 wins given the talent on the roster in my opinion. They could have gone crazy and sold the future for a shot this year, but that would have been ridiculous. Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, and Zach Greinke were terrible ideas in my opinion, and ones I'm glad they didn't make. The only good value out there for a hitter was Nick Swisher and he clearly makes Duquette's skin crawl as much as he does mine.

The part where I disagree with them is I don't see how Joe Saunders at 1/7 negatively affects the future. He clearly makes this team better, even if isn't by a large amount. Johnny Gomes, Koji, Brandon McCarthy, are a few other moves I would have liked to have seen.

I like our lineup a good deal for this year actually. I think they're a strong bunch and should hit and field very well. The starting pitching isn't going to get it done this year though, as it stands today. That will be the shortcoming. I had them at 74 wins last year though and even their true talent level far exceeded that. Debating with doom and gloomers this year feels too much like debating with the "We'll be lucky to win 50 games" crowd last year and I'm tired of it. I just want to watch some baseball at this point. It really doesn't feel that way sometimes, but we all want the same damn thing.

Completely agree with your sentiments across the board and find the Saunders (bolded quote) a bit of a compelling argument. The Orioles traded Matt Lindstrom on August 26th, 2012 to obtain Joe S. In the month of August, Saunders pitched to a 1-4 record with a 7.62 ERA. His first start with the Orioles was not pleasant, but Joe came through from that point on and shined well in the playoffs.

Were the O's lucky in this trade? In hindsight, it was steal (IMO)....but yet again, the Front Office made out like a bandit. We cannot expect the O's to do this type of successful maneuver every season, but I personally have realized their ability to take advantage of a SSS strategy (SSSS?) to push the envelope.

Joe's pitched in the AL before, but had not been seen with any regularity in the AL East. IMO, that is what made his impact a good move by the FO. The reason I am not distraught over the lack of signing Joe Saunders? It cost the Orioles Matt Lindstrom....the Orioles can easily make this type of move again during the season (if needed).

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I see what Duquette and Buck are trying to do. They must have sat down and looked at the roster and the options and said "We can win with this bunch, but not in 2013". The Orioles should finish with 80-85 wins given the talent on the roster in my opinion. They could have gone crazy and sold the future for a shot this year, but that would have been ridiculous. Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, and Zach Greinke were terrible ideas in my opinion, and ones I'm glad they didn't make. The only good value out there for a hitter was Nick Swisher and he clearly makes Duquette's skin crawl as much as he does mine.

The part where I disagree with them is I don't see how Joe Saunders at 1/7 negatively affects the future. He clearly makes this team better, even if isn't by a large amount. Johnny Gomes, Koji, Brandon McCarthy, are a few other moves I would have liked to have seen.

I like our lineup a good deal for this year actually. I think they're a strong bunch and should hit and field very well. The starting pitching isn't going to get it done this year though, as it stands today. That will be the shortcoming. I had them at 74 wins last year though and even their true talent level far exceeded that. Debating with doom and gloomers this year feels too much like debating with the "We'll be lucky to win 50 games" crowd last year and I'm tired of it. I just want to watch some baseball at this point. It really doesn't feel that way sometimes, but we all want the same damn thing.

The argument against Saunders, I think, is that we have quite a few talented younger pitchers and we need the space in the rotation to let the best of them compete at the big league level and learn what they need to learn. I know that's a hard message to sell when we've seen Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Tillman take their lumps over the last four years after being so hyped up in the minors. But there is an argument for letting them (plus Steve Johnson and eventually Wada) compete for spots, learn from experience, and then maybe Bundy or Gausman gets a shot if most of those guys fail, and if that doesn't work, then going and getting a Saunders-equivalent for the pennant stretch if we're still in it. Tillman finally seemed to step up last year, and maybe 2013 is the year that someone else figures it all out. I think a Saunders acquisition would have made all the sense in the world if making the playoffs again in 2013 was the only goal we had, but I think that is only one of our goals. We are trying to build an organization and a culture for the long run, while also competing for a playoff spot at the same time. It's a tough balancing act and you could argue it either way IMO.

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Do you think he's just parroting the Hangout, or do you think that most non-casual fans kind of feel the same way and you're the outlier?

The hardcore Orioles fans I know - myself included - are split down the middle. Some of them are sabermetric nerds with extensive formulas that say we'll be competitive despite standing pat, whereas the others tend to believe we're outgunned offensively and with a pitching staff that the rest of the AL will have figured out by April 30th.

I just don't see the evidence that supports we'll be "just fine." We need pieces and all the wishful thinking won't change that.

MSK

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The hardcore Orioles fans I know - myself included - are split down the middle. Some of them are sabermetric nerds with extensive formulas that say we'll be competitive despite standing pat, whereas the others tend to believe we're outgunned offensively and with a pitching staff that the rest of the AL will have figured out by April 30th.

I just don't see the evidence that supports we'll be "just fine." We need pieces and all the wishful thinking won't change that.

MSK

93-69 record and a trip to the Divisional Series in the playoffs enough evidence for you?

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The hardcore Orioles fans I know - myself included - are split down the middle. Some of them are sabermetric nerds with extensive formulas that say we'll be competitive despite standing pat, whereas the others tend to believe we're outgunned offensively and with a pitching staff that the rest of the AL will have figured out by April 30th.

I just don't see the evidence that supports we'll be "just fine." We need pieces and all the wishful thinking won't change that.

MSK

What about the "extensive formulas" you mentioned? I'm not sure what you're referring to exactly, but if someone has put together some research on why the O's will be competitive (as you say they have), I would think that certainly applies as evidence moreso than "the O's didn't spend money so they'll suck lolz".

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The hardcore Orioles fans I know - myself included - are split down the middle. Some of them are sabermetric nerds with extensive formulas that say we'll be competitive despite standing pat, whereas the others tend to believe we're outgunned offensively and with a pitching staff that the rest of the AL will have figured out by April 30th.

I just don't see the evidence that supports we'll be "just fine." We need pieces and all the wishful thinking won't change that.

MSK

Ok, I can understand your line of thinking. As of right now though, what do you see the Orioles final record being in 2013?

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Ok, I can understand your line of thinking. As of right now though, what do you see the Orioles final record being in 2013?

Without significant upgrades (hopefully we at least get a strong bat in the middle of the lineup as protection for Jones and Wieters) I see the 2013 Orioles going about 80-82. We will have a great stretch of wins, followed by a series of close losses in interleague; then followed by being completely outclassed offensively by the Blue Jays, Angels and Indians. The Yanks and Red Sox will still play us hard no matter what so I see a 50-50 proposition with them during the season. We have to contend with Detroit and Texas, who also will play us hard.

It feels like a lot of OH members believe that all the things that broke our way in 2012 will manifest in 2013. That's just not realistic, not by a long shot.

Just put the Angels lineup against ours. It's like a video game where a guy just added all the best possible hitters onto one squad. Payrolls aside, some teams are built to win, right now, we're built to tread water.

MSK

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Without significant upgrades (hopefully we at least get a strong bat in the middle of the lineup as protection for Jones and Wieters) I see the 2013 Orioles going about 80-82. We will have a great stretch of wins, followed by a series of close losses in interleague; then followed by being completely outclassed offensively by the Blue Jays, Angels and Indians. The Yanks and Red Sox will still play us hard no matter what so I see a 50-50 proposition with them during the season. We have to contend with Detroit and Texas, who also will play us hard.

It feels like a lot of OH members believe that all the things that broke our way in 2012 will manifest in 2013. That's just not realistic, not by a long shot.

Just put the Angels lineup against ours. It's like a video game where a guy just added all the best possible hitters onto one squad. Payrolls aside, some teams are built to win, right now, we're built to tread water.

MSK

Yeah. It's too bad MLB instituted the rule that the team with the best offense wins, and pitching and defense are no longer involved in baseball games.

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Without significant upgrades (hopefully we at least get a strong bat in the middle of the lineup as protection for Jones and Wieters) I see the 2013 Orioles going about 80-82. We will have a great stretch of wins, followed by a series of close losses in interleague; then followed by being completely outclassed offensively by the Blue Jays, Angels and Indians. The Yanks and Red Sox will still play us hard no matter what so I see a 50-50 proposition with them during the season. We have to contend with Detroit and Texas, who also will play us hard.

It feels like a lot of OH members believe that all the things that broke our way in 2012 will manifest in 2013. That's just not realistic, not by a long shot.

Just put the Angels lineup against ours. It's like a video game where a guy just added all the best possible hitters onto one squad. Payrolls aside, some teams are built to win, right now, we're built to tread water.

MSK

I agree that the Angels lineup is much better than ours, but I would rather have our rotation and bullpen.

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Without significant upgrades (hopefully we at least get a strong bat in the middle of the lineup as protection for Jones and Wieters) I see the 2013 Orioles going about 80-82. We will have a great stretch of wins, followed by a series of close losses in interleague; then followed by being completely outclassed offensively by the Blue Jays, Angels and Indians. The Yanks and Red Sox will still play us hard no matter what so I see a 50-50 proposition with them during the season. We have to contend with Detroit and Texas, who also will play us hard.

It feels like a lot of OH members believe that all the things that broke our way in 2012 will manifest in 2013. That's just not realistic, not by a long shot.

Just put the Angels lineup against ours. It's like a video game where a guy just added all the best possible hitters onto one squad. Payrolls aside, some teams are built to win, right now, we're built to tread water.

MSK

The Angels were "built to win" with their "video game lineup" last year, but I kept flipping around from channel to channel and couldn't for the life of me find them anywhere during the playoffs. Weird.

And how about them Marlins. Pretty sure they bought every available player last year, were picked by all the "experts" to win it all, and were already selling their team off in pieces by June. The Blue Jays look alot like the 2012 Marlins to me.

But we know, a team is not built to win without spending spending spending. :rolleyes:

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