Jim Johnson Today, 2013

[allquixotic]

Jim's problem tonight seemed to be that he couldn't really command his breaking ball. He threw one great one and one good one, but he also hit a batter with the breaking ball. His sinker was working consistently, and his fastball had good heat -- fastest pitch of the game.

[olehippi]

With almost every appearance now, I'm becoming more and more convinced that Jim Johnson has been possessed by the spirit of Don Stanhouse, even though Stanhouse is still alive. I sure hope that he doesn't drive Showalter to start lighting up in the clubhouse tunnel.

[gallden]

His command is still off missing on opposite sides of the plate with his fastball. Really needs to command that.

[Art Wing]

I'm praying we're up by at least 4 tomorrow night when we enter the bottom of the ninth. I feel like Johnson is holding on by a thread every time out there since his collapse.

[Riggodrill44]

Well the historic rate is 85% so I would expect a "good" closer to be over 90%.

Rivera for his career is 89%...who would have thought that?

[Malike]

There is a lot of hysteria surrounding JJ's effectiveness lately that just isn't deserved. People have gone into overreaction mode to the point that baserunners alone are regarded as proof of JJ's ineffectiveness. His

As you're pointing out with the statement above, JJ has been only slightly less effective this year than the all time best closer has performed over his career.

JJ 2012 51 saves in 54 attempts for 94.44%

JJ 2013 to date 34 saves in 40 attempts for 85%

JJ 2012/2013 combined 85 saves in 94 attempts for 90.4%

JJ has allowed zero runs in 20 of his last 23 appearances or 87%. River is 32 for 38 this year or 84%.

JJ's GB/FB ratio for the last two months is 37 to 18 which is great. It was 17 to 22 in May.

JJ has 15 K in his last 18 IP and 6 in his last 5.2.

JJ's stats say he is pitching fine for the last 6 weeks overall. My eyes agree with the stats. He looks pretty good to me. Not as sharp as last year, but still damn tough overall.

JJ isn't Rivera, but he also is much, much better than he is currently being given credit for IMHO. We'll miss him when he is gone and people realize that good to very good closers don't grow on trees.

My 2 cents.

I think you might have made a mistake in your math. Rivera has had 32 SVO with 30 Saves. His record is 1-2.

JJ has 34 out of 40 like you stated. with a 2-7 record. Not sure where you got that Rivera had 38 SVO, he's only had 32, thus his save % is much better than 84%. I believe your mistake was thinking that all 38 appearences for Rivera were SVO, and that's not the case. 30 out of 32 is something like 94%, right?

Edit: here are the saves leaders and their percentages this season. That would put Johnson at 22 out of 30 closers for save percentage. I"m not saying he's awful, but he's clearly not the guy we thought he was last year.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/closers

[mdbdotcom]

I think you might have made a mistake in your math. Rivera has had 32 SVO with 30 Saves. His record is 1-2.

JJ has 34 out of 40 like you stated. with a 2-7 record. Not sure where you got that Rivera had 38 SVO, he's only had 32, thus his save % is much better than 84%. I believe your mistake was thinking that all 38 appearences for Rivera were SVO, and that's not the case. 30 out of 32 is something like 94%, right?

Edit: here are the saves leaders and their percentages this season. That would put Johnson at 22 out of 30 closers for save percentage. I"m not saying he's awful, but he's clearly not the guy we thought he was last year.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/closers

He wasn't "the guy we thought he was last year." Last year, that's the guy he was. This year, he has struggled at times. He would have to go 20 more saves in a row without blowing one to reach 90%. Is that possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. but there are only 17 guys with 20 or more saves at this point, and only three with 30 or more. He's in pretty good company, and I'm glad he's on our side.

That said, after this season, I expect he will be traded and Tommy Hunter will take over, because JJ will make too much money to be the closer here.

[Malike]

Read what I wrote again. The passage you're trying to correct is about outings in which a run was allowed, not saves in save opportunities. The stats I provided are accurate. I provided save rates in the prior group of stats and only for JJ.

Why would you cherry pick 20 out of 23 appearances for JJ and use every appearance for Mariano? I guess I'm just not understanding, because Rivera has clearly been better than JJ this year. 1.3 WAR to 0.4 WAR.

[MrOrange82]

Where did I say Rivera hasn't been better than JJ this year? I posted JJ's last 23 appearances because they are the 23 since he went through that admittedly awful stretch. I gave Mariano's whole year to provide context against those 23 outings to illustrate his results over those outings have been pretty good. The point was never to compare Rivera's year to JJ's year. I'm not sure where you got that. Near the end of my post I actually wrote "JJ is no Rivera...".

Anyway, I thought the point of my post was pretty clear, but I'll state it again:

People keep writing things over the last several weeks about how bad JJ is pitching and how nervous they are when he pitches YET the stats and at least my eyes say he has been pitching pretty well over the last six weeks. The last several pages of this thread are filled with the posts I'm referring to.

You generally post good information/insights, but I'm honestly not sure which games you've been watching if your opinion is that JJ's looked good. And I tend to agree with Malike that you're cherry picking to some extent. For example, if taking his "recent games" would be an acceptable measure, JJ's allowed two or more base runners in 6 of his last 12 games. He's allowed at least one in 9 out of 12. He's struck out 11 and walked 7 in that span. He's also hit 2 batters. Thankfully, he's only blown two saves in that stretch.

Bottom line (and reversing somewhat the implication you took from his last 23 games): JJ's looked shaky-to-bad for the majority of this season. Even when he's "gotten the save" (and as I've said previously), he hasn't shut down the opposition so much as he's escaped from it with minor bruising. His command has been erratic, and he's been anything but a comfort at the ends of close games.

[MrOrange82]

His command was erratic for a five game stretch from June 25th to July 5th when he walked 6 of the 7 you mentioned. He hasn't walked a guy in his last five outings.

Did you watch the game last night? The hit was a grounder up the middle. The hit batter was on a curveball against Kinsler who crowds the plate and basically leaned into the ball. He also threw a LOT of very nice change ups and two great curves to the last hitter. His sinker was thrown to both sides of the plate. He didn't look bad. The posts made afterwards looked at two runners and made it seem like he did. I stand by my take.

I could write this same summary for his last five outings. He did look awful in the NYY outing six outings ago when we lost and I was very worried about him at that point. Since that game, I've thought he has looked pretty good overall. I was very happy to see the good change up last night. I think there is too much of an obsession with # of baserunners right now rather than how they got there.

All I'm trying to say is that anyone reading this thread would believe JJ is pitching pretty badly and we need to do something about him. The results don't support that stance and I still maintain that he is by far our best option at closer. O'Day has a serious weakness against lefties and Tommy Hunter can't pitch frequently enough based on what Buck has said (and I believe him) and, while I like Tommy and what he brings, he is getting hit more lately and I believe he would get exposed somewhat if he had to face good teams too much. The fastball is mighty straight. As I type this, back-to-back really hard singles off Hunter.

7 out of 13. And I'm verging on annoyed.

EDIT: Breathing resumed.

[OFFNY]

.

JIMMY JOHNSON O (vs. RANGERS, 7/20)

IP:. 1 O(SAVE)

H:o 2

R:O 0

BB: 0

SO: 0

Pitches: 22 (16 Strike, 6 Balls)

2013 ERA: 3.55

[waroriole]

If the only way you can relax is if the other team goes 3 up 3 down in the 9th, I suggest taking up smoking and pacing in the hall like an expectant father.

I'm joking with you, but honestly I wasn't worried tonight. He was throwing the ball down to both sides of the plate and his change up looked good. He threw one bad curve and one to get Profar out. I wish he'd use it a bit more against good FB hitting teams, but I'm quibbling.

One bad was hit well in that inning and it was just a liner to center on a ball that he got up a bit.

Hunter on the other hand ....

He's definitely pitched better of late, but guys are still hitting him. Grounders are finding holes. A big part of that is Buck's inexcusable error of leaving BRob in late in games. Why do we have 3 2B when we use our worst defender late in games and our closer is an extreme GB P? Infuriating.

[MrOrange82]

If the only way you can relax is if the other team goes 3 up 3 down in the 9th, I suggest taking up smoking and pacing in the hall like an expectant father.

I'm joking with you, but honestly I wasn't worried tonight. He was throwing the ball down to both sides of the plate and his change up looked good. He threw one bad curve and one to get Profar out. I wish he'd use it a bit more against good FB hitting teams, but I'm quibbling.

One bad was hit well in that inning and it was just a liner to center on a ball that he got up a bit.

Hunter on the other hand ....

Hunter definitely hasn't looked good for a couple of weeks now, at least. And I thought Johnson looked pretty good for the first couple of batters.

As much as I complain about Johnson, the team is obviously better if/when he's on his game. Unfortunately, he's just cost the Orioles dearly several times this season, and even his "saves," on the whole, haven't made me think that he's done costing the team. If that turns out to not be the case, believe me...I'll be the first to offer a mea culpa while celebrating.

[Can_of_corn]

So does Buck bringing him in for a 3 run save after pitching him the day before make JJ unavailable today?

[slakattack]

So does Buck bringing him in for a 3 run save after pitching him the day before make JJ unavailable today?

I wouldn't want to see him face the Texas lineup for 3 consecutive days...that's just asking for trouble