The Magic is Gone ("Perspective" thread merge)

[TiredofLosing20]

Unless, of course, the teams we're chasing also keep winning series.

See, that's the thing. We have put ourselves into a position where we have to start sweeping series to gain ground. We have yet to go on that 7,8, 10 game winning streak to really give ourselves some momentum. I keep waiting. I thought we had it with San Diego and San Fran. But then we dropped that middle game to the Giants, and then again last night. We need to start making a move. Time is running out. Hell, leaves are falling off my trees out back, if ya smell what the Dip is cookin'.

I dont know dip. If someone offered me 2 out 3 the rest of the way I would probably take it. If my new math is right that would put us at 94 wins. I would be willing to bet that gets us a wildcard spot.

I understand your point but I think the panic button is still rightfully underneath the glass. Regardless, its going to be a fun ride...

[Tony-OH]

You made a valid point.

However, DD makes a couple of trades, then some in this community post, "DD has decimated the minor league system."

Yet if DD hadn't made any trades, those same people would be complaining that DD is a lazy bum and unable to pull the trigger.

Talk is fun, but when people start making knee jerk reactions, like firing the batting coach in mid season, or fire the MASN announcer, it just gets to be a bit too much.

I also dont call the dialogue stimulating, when Buck either leaves a pitcher in too long, or yanks him early. It doesn't matter what he does, people love to point they thought he did wrong.

But why? Why is it too much. I totally disagreed with the Fire Presley OP, but it ended up causing some great discussion. That's what we do here. Some of you need to start up a cheer board where you can just cheer all day long without that nasty discussion thing going on. As for your second comment, that's what we do here as well. If it's not stimulating for you stay out of the thread. Quite simple really.

[SilentJames]

The way I see it, for the Division to be realistic the Orioles need to be within 4.5 games of first by September first. Considering how much we play the Red Sox in Spetember if we are four games or closer on the first of Spetember then the division is up for grabs.

It is August 13th, we are five games out. Getting within four over the next 2.5 weeks is not that tall an order.

[radar303]

This is a community that loves to talk about the numbers and trends. It's fun to talk about. There is no real stimulating dialogue if everyone posts "Go Orioles, we'll get them next time" during every loss and "We are the best!" during every win.

As to the predictions, do they mean anything in the grand scheme of things? No, but they are fun. You can predict the Orioles to miss the play-offs but still root for them to make it. I've predicted the Orioles would miss the play-offs in the past on here, but I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong.

I guess that sports fans are just negative in general. My point is that EACH GAME stands alone and CAN be enjoyed on its own merits.Why does a trend have to be spotted in every run through the rotation? I am not pollyanna and think "WE are the Best". I get critical .... but after the season is best.

I think the team is good and if breaks go their way they get in. Prediction... they win 18 out of the next 20. Mine is as good as any. If anyone knew exactly what is going to happen, well I guess they got the Biff Tannen sports almanac that Doc Brown threw in the trash. Bet on it if you know it.

[Tony-OH]

Fair enough. But I want the division, so lets consider this.

If the Orioles play .600 ball the rest of the way (which is asking a lot, but we'll go with that percentage since I keep seeing it from posters), that gives us 26 wins, for a total of 91 on the year. Boston has 71 wins with 42 left to play. In order for us to TIE them, they'd have to go 20 and 22 over their final 42 games. This from a team that has played .592 baseball through 120 games thus far.

My opinion here. And I hope to God I'm wrong, okay everyone. But I just don't see that happening. Its gonna take more than that for us to win this division.

Now, the Wild Card is a whole different beast, and yes, I think we DO hold our own destiny there.

You are totally right about the Division. I don't think some people honestly understand what needs to happen to make up five games. Either the Orioles need to get real hot or the Red Sox need to get real cold. Yes, we play them nine more times, but we have win 7 of 9 and play even ball with them to make it up. That's asking a lot. If the Orioles win 91 games it will be a good year, but maybe the Red Sox are having a great year. I'm not down on this team, and I think they have a chance to win a wild card, but I'm very skeptical that they are going to win the Division.

[MagicBird]

What kills me is less than two years ago people would have been jumping up and down if the Orioles won 81 games in a season. Now we're sitting here in August, 12 games over .500 and in playoff contention and it's garbage.

Realistic expectations are different now.

[TiredofLosing20]

Fair enough. But I want the division, so lets consider this.

If the Orioles play .600 ball the rest of the way (which is asking a lot, but we'll go with that percentage since I keep seeing it from posters), that gives us 26 wins, for a total of 91 on the year. Boston has 71 wins with 42 left to play. In order for us to TIE them, they'd have to go 20 and 22 over their final 42 games. This from a team that has played .592 baseball through 120 games thus far.

My opinion here. And I hope to God I'm wrong, okay everyone. But I just don't see that happening. Its gonna take more than that for us to win this division.

Now, the Wild Card is a whole different beast, and yes, I think we DO hold our own destiny there.

We didn't win the division last year even with "the magic".

Truth is it will take a ton to win the division, not impossible but as you and others have alluded to its a tall order. I think the wildcard is definitely in play and probably will be until the last days of the season..

Unrelated to your post, its kinda funny in the offseason I predicted this team to be an 82-85 win team and I think I fell into the gloomy gus category here on the board. Now with them overachieving my expectation and a real shot at another playoff run, I feel like I am in the its all rainbows and unicorns camp.

[Dipper9]

We didn't win the division last year even with "the magic".

Truth is it will take a ton to win the division, not impossible but as you and others have alluded to its a tall order. I think the wildcard is definitely in play and probably will be until the last days of the season..

Unrelated to your post, its kinda funny in the offseason I predicted this team to be an 82-85 win team and I think I fell into the gloomy gus category here on the board. Now with them overachieving my expectation and a real shot at another playoff run, I feel like I am in the its all rainbows and unicorns camp.

Expectations change based on results. As I stated earlier, if you had asked 100 Pirates fans on March 15th if they be happy with the Bucs going 82-80 this year, 100 of them would have taken that and not blinked. Now, as they have one of the best records in baseball, a winning season is the LAST thing on the minds of Pirates fans.

[Tony-OH]

We didn't win the division last year even with "the magic".

Truth is it will take a ton to win the division, not impossible but as you and others have alluded to its a tall order. I think the wildcard is definitely in play and probably will be until the last days of the season..

Unrelated to your post, its kinda funny in the offseason I predicted this team to be an 82-85 win team and I think I fell into the gloomy gus category here on the board. Now with them overachieving my expectation and a real shot at another playoff run, I feel like I am in the its all rainbows and unicorns camp.

That's pretty funny. Don't worry, that camp has it's share of people around here!

Honestly though, I think there is a lot of things to like about this team. I think it has a very good chance of winning a wild card this year and overall I'm very satisfied with another year of meaningful Orioles baseball in August and hopefully September.

[osfan83]

Tampa has lost 5 in a row and still has a 2 game lead on us.....the sky is not falling, but, we are trying to make up ground on GOOD teams. The teams we are chasing will probably win most of the series they have left to play, that's why they are good. To catch them we need to play better than good. If they take 2 of 3 for three straight series we have to sweep one and win the other two just to pick up a single game.

Yes head to head will be the key, but just taking 2 of 3 likely wont be enough. We are going to have to sweep some head to heads to gain enough ground.

44 games is not a lot.

[TiredofLosing20]

Expectations change based on results. As I stated earlier, if you had asked 100 Pirates fans on March 15th if they be happy with the Bucs going 82-80 this year, 100 of them would have taken that and not blinked. Now, as they have one of the best records in baseball, a winning season is the LAST thing on the minds of Pirates fans.

My expectation hasn't really changed. I still would not be surprised if they ended up with 85 wins. I realize that in the context of a long season there are ups and downs and those ups and downs can be consistent throughout the season or they could be clumpy. You could win a lot of games early and lose a lot late or visa versa. Would I be disappointed that they bombed in the last month and a half, of course. but that is because based on their play thus far I think they have a much better chance of exceeding my expectations then falling short of them.

[TiredofLosing20]

Expectations change based on results. As I stated earlier, if you had asked 100 Pirates fans on March 15th if they be happy with the Bucs going 82-80 this year, 100 of them would have taken that and not blinked. Now, as they have one of the best records in baseball, a winning season is the LAST thing on the minds of Pirates fans.

Did they have 100 fans on March 15th.. :wedge:

I'll be here all week..

[TiredofLosing20]

That's pretty funny. Don't worry, that camp has it's share of people around here!

Honestly though, I think there is a lot of things to like about this team. I think it has a very good chance of winning a wild card this year and overall I'm very satisfied with another year of meaningful Orioles baseball in August and hopefully September.

Exactly where I am.. enjoying the season, excited about what they have accomplished and what is still possible to accomplish, but certainly not overlooking their warts...

[EagleOriole]

Huh, I think Texas is better than last year. Darvish got his feet wet last year and was inconsistent, now he's a true number 1. They were already solid at pitching, and they added Garza. They have adequate offense, and their pitching is good enough that they don't need to score 9 runs a game.

Pitching was 16th last year, 9th this year. Hitting was 1st last year, 11th this year. Nelson Cruz, their second best hitter is suspended for the rest of the year. Replaced by Alex Rios. Do not think Texas is as good this year as last overall.

[Guest]

That's pretty funny. Don't worry, that camp has it's share of people around here!

Honestly though, I think there is a lot of things to like about this team. I think it has a very good chance of winning a wild card this year and overall I'm very satisfied with another year of meaningful Orioles baseball in August and hopefully September.

The thing with me is that they did nothing this past off-season. They BANKED on people like Hammel to have another career year which if you look at his numbers was a mistake. They banked on Robert and Nolan to play more then 100 game which was a mistake. Number 5 start has been a black hole for last 2 year yet they did nothing. Coming off a 93 win season and your biggest move was Nate at 1 y 2m come on we can do better then take. How nice would it be if they had a real DH all year I'm willing to bet the Orioles would have 3 more wins this year right now.