Nick Hasn't Bunted Since 2007?

[SerenityNow]

This thread...lol that's all I got. We are talking about field medics and doctors monthly salaries. What's next how a doctors bedside manner relates to a third base coaches ability to send a runner?

[El Gordo]

This thread...lol that's all I got. We are talking about field medics and doctors monthly salaries. What's next how a doctors bedside manner relates to a third base coaches ability to send a runner?

Well I'll tell you this; I refuse to be treated by any combat medic who doesn't make at least $4,500 a month, and can lay down a perfect sac. bunt even when not asked to do so.

[Redskins Rick]

Well I'll tell you this; I refuse to be treated by any combat medic who doesn't make at least $4,500 a month, and can lay down a perfect sac. bunt even when not asked to do so.

But what about their range to their right?

[centralpaosfan]

Yes. Every single lineup ever fielded (ok I exaggerate, but only by a little) has players in it who are not proficient in one or more basic baseball skills. There have been any number of players who were terrible at one or more skills who were among the most valuable players in the league. Miguel Cabrera has certainly cost his teams more runs with his fielding adventures than Nick has by not bunting. Adam Dunn is a fielder and a baserunner about on par with guys in a church softball league, but has other skills that (mostly) make up for that. As far as I know, almost the entire All Star pitching staff has no idea how to bunt, play shortstop, steal a base, frame a pitch. There are LOOGYs and submarine relievers who may not have made it out of the Appy League if removed from their very specific roles. Adam Jones is a marginal MVP candidate despite having plate discipline that Nate Spears would laugh at.

It has zero connection to salary, which is based on overall ability to contribute to a team. Cliff Lee is making $25M a year, and he can't play the outfield at all.

And I wouldn't even go to a doctor making $1500 a month, not unless he's performing ridiculously simple work or I'm in a third world country.

Would you ask a brain surgeon to reconstruct your ACL? If he's making a lot of money shouldn't he be able to? Would you ask your well-compensated dentist to give you Tommy John surgery? Can you podiatrist diagnose that red patch on your neck?

I think common sense tells you that if someone is never asked to do something there could be a wide variety of reasons. Most likely in this case is that you don't ask productive hitters to do unproductive things. Nick is in the lineup to hit and field and get on base and throw people out on the bases, not to give the other team outs. He has been selected for those skills, and not for nearly useless ones, much like pitchers may or may not be able to hit - no one cares, and most of the time no one even bothers to check.

I read through your responses and cannot argue with any of them. I appreciate you taking the time to explain your thoughts and the fact that we could have a disagreement and debate it in a mature manner.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Of course it is a skill set. Does this mean that if Nate sac bunts he shouldn't be playing? I have seen Adam Jones bunt for hits, not sure if he has sac bunted. It is a basic skill set and Nick should know how to do it.

Calligraphy is a skill set. Doesn't mean I want Nick Markakis devoting his practice time doing it, much less doing it during the game.

Bunting for hits and sac bunting or two different skill sets. For guys with speed it's not bad idea. even for guys without speed that are overshifted and/or played deep it can make sense at times. I'm not sure that really applies to Nick Markakis though. When he's right, he's hitting well to all fields.

[Hallas]

That's far from a given.

If you look at the average 2013 run expectancy chart you see:

With 1st and 2nd occupied and zero outs an average team scores 1.42 runs that inning.

If Nick successfully sacrificed that turns into 2nd/3rd with one out. And average team scores 1.28 runs in that situation. So the expected runs scored went down after a successful sacrifice.

Except that you can't expect anyone to successfully sacrifice 100% of the time, especially when they're not commonly called upon to do this. Let's say there was a 75% chance of a sac bunt, a 10% chance of popping out, a 10% chance of bunting into a DP, and a 5% chance of Nick reaching on a hit/error. You can quibble with those percentages, but I don't think it's terribly important. So... that 1.29 is probably optimistic considering all of the possible outcomes.

The only way I can see defending a sac bunt there is the idea that the O's really, really would have benefited from a single additional run. I think it was justifiable, and backed by evidence, that swinging away was a good idea.

I know it's just a back-of-napkin calculation with regard to the chance for those outcomes, but Manny Machado has bunted 18 times and has 6 hits, 9 sacrifices, and 3 outcomes that are undetermined. (I imagine it's 2 popup/force out, 1 ROE.)

So he's reached 38% of the times he's tried to bunt. That's pretty damn good. I don't think the 5% number is accurate, unless you consider Nick to be a terrible bunter.

Machado isn't even that fast.

[El Gordo]

What do mean he doesn't practice it? The OP's premise; "Nick Hasn't Bunted Since 2007" is patently false as evidenced by three different instances cited since 2007 where he attempted a bunt. Either Gary and Jim don't know what they are talking about, or the OP misunderstood them. People who wanted Nick to bunt yesterday should be careful what they wish for.

http://wnst.net/baltimore-orioles/markakis-ill-advised-bunt-opens-door-for-red-sox-comeback/

[CA-ORIOLE]

I know it's just a back-of-napkin calculation with regard to the chance for those outcomes, but Manny Machado has bunted 18 times and has 6 hits, 9 sacrifices, and 3 outcomes that are undetermined. (I imagine it's 2 popup/force out, 1 ROE.)

So he's reached 38% of the times he's tried to bunt. That's pretty damn good. I don't think the 5% number is accurate, unless you consider Nick to be a terrible bunter.

Machado isn't even that fast.

I don't have to much issue with guys trying to bunt for base hits, I'd assume some of those "sacrafices" were hit attempts. That said, I wonder how many times he has attempted to bunt and got himself behind in the count for an unproductive AB?

[Hallas]

I don't have to much issue with guys trying to bunt for base hits, I'd assume some of those "sacrafices" were hit attempts. That said, I wonder how many times he has attempted to bunt and got himself behind in the count for an unproductive AB?

Flip side is that he shows bunt, lets some pitches go that are balls, forces the 3B in, and slaps a double down the line. It's probably a wash.

[DrungoHazewood]

I know it's just a back-of-napkin calculation with regard to the chance for those outcomes, but Manny Machado has bunted 18 times and has 6 hits, 9 sacrifices, and 3 outcomes that are undetermined. (I imagine it's 2 popup/force out, 1 ROE.)

So he's reached 38% of the times he's tried to bunt. That's pretty damn good. I don't think the 5% number is accurate, unless you consider Nick to be a terrible bunter.

Machado isn't even that fast.

I was completely making up numbers, so I have no problem saying they're off. A good number of Manny sacrifices were straight sac bunts, not attempts to hit.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Flip side is that he shows bunt, lets some pitches go that are balls, forces the 3B in, and slaps a double down the line. It's probably a wash.

Maybe. Manny is pretty good at being able to hit to all fields and handles the bat well. He also seems pretty adept at bunting. So, I'd probably agree that there's not much of an issue in his case.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I was completely making up numbers, so I have no problem saying they're off. A good number of Manny sacrifices were straight sac bunts, not attempts to hit.

Yeah, I wonder what that percentage really is. The announcers (and me) seemed genuinely confused yesterday on his bunt/sac bunt attempt. Buck isn't really a small ball guy and I have hard time believing Buck is letting him make his own decision on on when to sac bunt.

[Hallas]

I was completely making up numbers, so I have no problem saying they're off. A good number of Manny sacrifices were straight sac bunts, not attempts to hit.

CHeck out these two articles:

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/8/8/4601034/the-evolution-of-the-sacrifice-bunt-part-3

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/8/12/4613158/the-evolution-of-the-sacrifice-bunt-part-4

The data set used for the numbers is only bunt attempts with a runner on base. Here's the cliff notes:

-Defenses are getting better at defending the bunt.

-Hitters have about a 17-22% chance of getting a hit.

-Pitchers suck royally at bunting. I think it has something to do with the fact that the first baseman and 3rd baseman play about 40 feet from home when the pitcher is up.

-About 80-85% of sacrifice attempts end in either the runner moving over or all runners safe.

-There is a skill component to bunting successfully, and neither speed nor any bunting statistics will tell you whether you're any good at it.

-Bunting has much more favorable outcomes early in the game than late in the game.

[jjnono]

Do you have either at the big league level?

If my home run skills had been more pronounced at the college level, I may have been able to show off my no-doubt-about-it MLB-level bunting skills....!!

And I was just wise-cracking on Nick; I predict a big bounce back year for him next season. I have always advocated that Nick is best suited for the leadoff slot, or two-hole. Seeing him succeed there last night was great. I wonder if we'll see more of that down the stretch...

[NJ BIRD FAN]

Speed guys like Roberts, Nate, and AJ, bunt as a part of their game. Not the same thing as with Nick who would most likely just sac. bunt.[/QU

Manny isn't fast.