Manny Machado expected to have surgery on knee within a week.

[Crazysilver03]

What about Casey McGehee? He would be a less expensive solution to the problem. Is this even a possibility?

Not really. The Marlins want to keep him by all reports. Plus he would have to pass the 15 teams in the NL and 12 teams in the AL to fall to the Orioles on the waiver claim list.

[BMann]

IMO, if it is possible, Duquette really has to find a third baseman. Not to replace Machado, but to get other players back into their normal roles.

I don't have a problem with Davis at 3rd (Buck was going to start him everyday anyway even before Manny's injury), Pearce at 1st, and Young and Cruz alternating between LF and DH, with Lough thrown in for defense in left when necessary. And we might get a Phelps sighting before the month is out...

I'm not ready to declare that the team that took the field today can't win it all. No reason to give up way too much right now to get Beltre...

[TakebackOPACY]

So our opponents record in games he played vs in games he didn't is virtually the same, no?

No, it isn't virtually the same. The average record in baseball (all teams averaged together) is always exactly .500 because all teams play the same amount of games, and there's always a winner and a loser (no ties in non-exhibition baseball). Because of that fact the difference between 49% WP and 51% WP is quite significant when you're talking about a large collection of opponents.

Good reply, Morgan.

Think of it this way, a team that plays .509 ball would be about 82.5-79.5 on the season. A .491 team would be about 79.5-82.5. Kinda coincidentally, the most difficult strength of schedule so far this year is .509 (Houston) and the easiest so far is .490 (San Fran).

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

NOTE: The discrepancy between my numbers and the O's overall .508 in the above link is that I didn't pull the O's games out of my numbers, and Machado played a lot more games than he missed up to this point.

[TakebackOPACY]

Then why don't all teams finish within a few games of each other?

Think it through; your strength of schedule is an avg of all your opponents. Your record is just the record of one team.

[Tx Oriole]

Was kinda hoping for a bird out of this thread but I don't think it's going to happen.

Folks are too upset to be handing out rep.

I wish I had even one bird.

[Satyr3206]

Because not every team plays the exact same opponents over their 162 games.

Has a statistics class affected this?

[Jagwar]

Great point.

You know what they say about blind squirrels knowing where their nuts are... or something like that.

[Can_of_corn]

I wish I had even one bird.

Post density.

That's my secret.

[Satyr3206]

Think it through; your strength of schedule is an avg of all your opponents. Your record is just the record of one team.

I've thought it through most of my life. You can quote numbers or probabilities until you are blue in the face but you still have to go out and play the games. That's where the numbers don't add up. Because they can't quantify human desire, or motivation.

[Morgan423]

Has a statistics class affected this?

You mean my thought process on this? I wasn't specifically thinking back to a statistics class, but it is statistics I suppose.

[bpilktree]

I am ok with Davis at third but we can not have a bench of Flaherty Phelps, Lough, and Hundley.

[Crazysilver03]

I am ok with Davis at third but we can not have a bench of Flaherty Phelps, Lough, and Hundley.

In 10 more days rosters expand anyway so it isn't a huge issue.

[TakebackOPACY]

I've thought it through most of my life. You can quote numbers or probabilities until you are blue in the face but you still have to go out and play the games. That's where the numbers don't add up. Because they can't quantify human desire, or motivation.

That's a separate and worthy subject. All I was saying is that we've had an easier schedule in the games that Manny missed than the games that Manny played. And that explains why we have a better record in games Manny missed than the games Manny played.

The good news, we agree, is that no matter what tiny bit that tells us about the odds for the O's going forward, they get to play the games. I'd want to know this stuff if I were betting; but I'm not; I'm just watching and cheering.

[Guest]

In 10 more days rosters expand anyway so it isn't a huge issue.

Playoffs is were it's gonna cost us. Dan needs to get a 3B before Aug 31. Doesn't have to be a star just someone that has played 3B.

[SteveO]

Some silly deals being proposed here. The Rangers were not willing to deal Beltre before the deadline unless they were overwhelmed what makes anyone think they will now just cause we happen to need a 3B?

It would take a huge haul along the lines of Bundy, Walker, Cisco and perhaps another arm like Wright or Bridwell to get that done...not worth it considering we can win the division without him and come playoffs he could well go 1 for 15 if he hits a cold streak.

A more realistic possibility IMO would be to get a guy like Alex Rios from the Rangers to play LF, leave Davis at 3B and Pearce at 1B...Cruz DH. You could get a guy like Rios for much less and while he is far from great he is a serviceable fielder in LF, can do a little something more than Lough with the bat and gives you some depth in your OF if Pearce is at 1B