MLB.com's Position by Position Analysis

[Malike]

That's a 6 year old article. Let's try something more modern:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/ben-lindbergh-dispels-postseason-myths/

He references this gem:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoff-myths-to-ignore/

5 days old.

Oh okay, I didn't know that the science of math has changed in the past 6 years. You are wealth of knowledge, thanks.

Edit: The gem there is for the Wildcard era, the piece I linked was every season since WWII. I tend to be wary when people say things like the author there, and don't explain how they come to the conclusion.

[LookitsPuck]

Things evolve. And one article isn't the end all be all. But I like Lindbergh's more in depth write-up much better.

[Guest rochester]

I think the writer did a half-arsed job with this article. Of the position comparisons, almost none of them mention defense. How do you do a team comparison and make no mention of defense?

I agree but is there anything glaring in the results?

[ShaneDawg85]

It's not an unfair thing to question how Britton will do in his first experience in the postseason, you never know how anybody will do, and relief pitching is the most volatile element in baseball. However, to blindly give the edge to Nathan, provided there is one based on experience alone when Nathan has been horrendous this season and is only the closer because no one else on his team could do the job is laughable. Never mind that Nathan has a really poor postseason record himself, albeit in 9 whole innings, including two years ago against these same Orioles that in essence put the game out of reach.

[isestrex]

That's a 6 year old article. Let's try something more modern:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/ben-lindbergh-dispels-postseason-myths/

He references this gem:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoff-myths-to-ignore/

5 days old.

This is great stuff:

Myth: In the Land of Decreased Scoring, Small Ball Is King

This year's ripest targets for the home run reliance fallacy are the Orioles, who have the highest Guillen Number in the majors in 2014 (48.1 percent) and the second-highest of any playoff team in the wild-card era (behind the 2012 Yankees). "I'm probably stating the obvious here, but the Orioles are too reliant on the home run and they need more variety from their offense," MASN's Steve Melewski wrote on Tuesday. "Reliance on home runs has traditionally been a formula for failure in the playoffs," the Carroll County Times asserted last week. While the Orioles would benefit from a higher walk rate (at 6.5 percent, theirs is the third-lowest in the league), their second-best Isolated Power makes up for much of that impatience. The approach Baltimore has employed so far won't work less well when the calendar turns to October.

Pitching Doesn't Win Championships.

Having a heavily loaded front of the rotation is great. Having really good hitters is great. Having a great bullpen is great. There are lots of ways to win. No single way has proven better than the other.

[PaulFolk]

I agree but is there anything glaring in the results?

No, can't quibble too much with the individual rankings (except Nathan over Britton, which is inexplicable). But leaving out any discussion of defense seems like a pretty glaring and lazy omission. The Orioles' defensive advantage over the Tigers shouldn't be overlooked in this series.

[24fps]

Damn trees are in the way. I'm sure there's a forest around here somewhere...

[25 Nuggets]

The only thing ringing in my head when people compare these teams using advanced analysis is this:

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

[tntoriole]

My goodness. Why should we even show up? I mean the mighty Tigers are so dominating, how did they ever lose a single game all year?

[Jonesy10]

From ALDS predictionhttp://atmlb.com/1rA1a3V

What a complete joke!!!

Nathan > Britton? Britton has an ERA almost one third of Nathan's and has been worth 0.9 more WAR (huge difference for relievers).

Hunter > Markakis? Markakis has been worth 2.2 more WAR than Hunter this season. They note playoff experience as the main factor even though...

Martinez > Cruz? Martinez is better than Cruz, but the gap is much smaller than the one between Hunter and Markakis. Yet Cruz is a playoff monster. But nope. Going off regular season stats on this one apparently!

Castellanos > Flaherty/Johnson? Castellanos has been worth -0.3 WAR this season. He's terrible. Johnson and Flaherty have been worth 0.8 and 0.9 more WAR this season than Castellanos in half the playing time.

Cabrera > Pearce? Pearce has been a much better hitter and fielder than Cabrera this season.

Tigers Rotation > Orioles Rotation? Orioles rotation ERA is 3.61 compared to 3.90 ERA for Detroit. So now they are using WAR instead of traditional stats (ERA) to decide who is better...

Overall the Tigers are only better at 2B, LF, and DH. Catcher is pretty even. Left field and DH are very close too factoring in De Aza's and Martinez's defense. The Orioles are significantly better at 3B, SS, CF, RF, in the bullpen and managerial wise. Pearce has also out hit Cabrera all year. And their starters have the names but ours have a better ERA. The Tigers are a scary matchup but the Orioles are a better team.

Orioles will take this series!

[OFFNY]

The only thing ringing in my head when people compare these teams using advanced analysis is this:

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

Sir, I went to baseball games with OFFNY.

I knew OFFNY.

OFFNY was a friend of mine.

Sir, you're no OFFNY.

[bobmc]

My goodness. Why should we even show up? I mean the mighty Tigers are so dominating, how did they ever lose a single game all year?

And that veteranosity factor is a tough nut to crack but we do have the Roy Firestone Reverse Jinx Syndrome here and I believe that may cinch it in the end - O's in four!

[weams]

My goodness. Why should we even show up? I mean the mighty Tigers are so dominating, how did they ever lose a single game all year?

How did they lose over half of their games over the last month. How?

[ledzepp8]

I love the catchers' analysis. Guys can't run on Avilia. The Orioles don't steal bases. Advantage Tigers. So they have the ability to limit something we don't do and it's an advantage.

Add to that the fact that they're discounting Caleb Joseph because he "only" threw out 23 runners. Never mind the fact that he only caught in 78 games. Caleb threw out 40% of basestealers...to Avila's 34%.

I don't really care that they're giving advantage the Tigers, but the article and most of the reasoning is pretty silly stuff. I mean Torri Hunter over Nick Markakis? Markakis is clearly the better overall player. They're reasoning seemed to be that Hunter hit over 300 in September and the fact that he's played in the postseason before...WTF.

[xian4]

How do you quantify Orioles magic and how it will affect the series ?.