Hardy Extension Announced Today

[Johnny Cobba]

So let's say Hardy's range does diminish during his next couple years would a swap with Manny be logical?

Very excited with the extension.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DrungoHazewood]

Fair enough point. According to BB-ref, our payroll was $105.5 mm this year, not $115 mm. You're certainly right that it would cost a lot more than that to keep the team intact for long. In addition to Hardy and Cruz, you'd expect Norris, Tillman, Gonzo, Pearce and Britton to get pretty sizeable raises, with only Markakis earning noticeably less than in 2014. At the same time, the MLB TV contract is increasing each year, attendance was up, and there will be a nice chunk of postseason revenue for the Orioles.

With the Hardy extension and the Ubaldo contract from last winter I guess I'm kind of hoping that Angelos has entered his Mike Ilitch phase. Realization that he's not going to be around forever and he can't take his cash with him into the great beyond, so screw it... payroll is going to be what it needs to be.

We'll see, I don't quite believe it just yet. Nor do I necessarily think that's the best thing. Setting aside $/win, you don't want to be in a position where you have a bunch of 36-year-olds with essentially untradeable contracts OPSing .675 (obviously only some of the O's due for raises in the short-to-mid-term fit that characterization).

[DrungoHazewood]

So let's say Hardy's range does diminish during his next couple years would a swap with Manny be logical?

Probably not if you want to keep 2013-14-like production. Hardy will not be as valuable at third as he is at short, not unless he becomes an even better third baseman than he is a shortstop. That seems unlikely. It didn't happen with Cal. And it'll be hard to carry a 3B with a .650 or .625 OPS, as Hardy's bat will probably decline, too.

And then you get to the whole discussion of Manny at short, and how he'd have to be a great defensive shortstop to be as valuable as he is as an otherworldly defensive third baseman.

[Crazysilver03]

2015: 11.5M

2016: 12.5M

2017: 14M

2018: 14M option or 2M buyout

Option vests on PA or if traded

$700K per season in incentives.

[Trace21230]

2015: 11.5M

2016: 12.5M

2017: 14M

2018: 14M option or 2M buyout

Option vests on PA or if traded

$700K per season in incentives.

So, 3 years and 38M by my count, with an option. Definitely a no-brainer.

[backwardsk]

2015: 11.5M

2016: 12.5M

2017: 14M

2018: 14M option or 2M buyout

Option vests on PA or if traded

$700K per season in incentives.

Very nice structure to this deal.

[pcbothwel]

Just to clarify...Does Hardy have to meet certain PA to get the 14M, in which case we buy him out for 2M? I.E.

Scenario 1: Hardy gets PA incentive and we keep him

2015: 11.5M

2016: 12.5M

2017: 14M

2018: 14M option

TOTAL: 4/52M

Scenario 2: Hardy gets PA incentive and we buy out

2015: 11.5M

2016: 12.5M

2017: 14M

2018: 2M buyout

TOTAL: 3/40M

Scenario 3: Hardy doesn't get plate appearance

2015: 11.5M

2016: 12.5M

2017: 14M

2018: 0M

TOTAL: 3/38M

Or does the 2M exist only if he doesn't make the PA and if he gets the PA incentive, then there is no buy out and we have to pay the 14M?

[DrungoHazewood]

2015: 11.5M

2016: 12.5M

2017: 14M

2018: 14M option or 2M buyout

Option vests on PA or if traded

$700K per season in incentives.

So that's 3/40 guaranteed. At $6M per win that's paying for 6.7 wins over three years, or just over 2.0 wins per season. He has an established level of almost 3 1/2 wins, assuming he's declining at 0.5 win/season you can hope he produces 3, 2.5, and 2 wins for a total of 7.5. The Orioles got 1.5 wins of risk mitigation built in, for either performance declines or a change in the cost of a win. Seems fairly reasonable to me.

[Can_of_corn]

So that's 3/40 guaranteed. At $6M per win that's paying for 6.7 wins over three years, or just over 2.0 wins per season. He has an established level of almost 3 1/2 wins, assuming he's declining at 0.5 win/season you can hope he produces 3, 2.5, and 2 wins for a total of 7.5. The Orioles got 1.5 wins of risk mitigation built in, for either performance declines or a change in the cost of a win. Seems fairly reasonable to me.

Plus if the deferment is without interest then the true value of the deal is even less.

[srock]

I would much rather have Davis than Cruz or Markakis at this stage in their careers. Chris is very athletic. His upside over a 3 or 4 year contract is much higher than either of the other two's. He's a very good fielder, which fits into the theme of the Orioles these days.

I understand that he f'd up on the adderall. I understand that he hit for sh@# this season and had big holes in his swing. Considering all of that, he might be able to be signed now for a reasonable price and he has a reasonable chance of rebounding with a very high ceiling and a not-bad floor (I am assuming that this season was the floor).

Davis could be the odd man out because of his play/suspension and more importantly Steve Pearce and Christian Walker.

Unless he signs a team friendly extension (very friendly) Davis is likely out and his salary used on Cruz or Markakis.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[webbrick2010]

Davis could be the odd man out because of his play/suspension and more importantly Steve Pearce and Christian Walker.

Unless he signs a team friendly extension (very friendly) Davis is likely out and his salary used on Cruz or Markakis.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A 28 yo Hardy would have easily thrown out Billy Butler tonight and the Orioles would have won

A 32 yo Hardy made a weak bouncing throw that Pearce couldn't handle

A 35 will be below replacement level offensively and barely serviceable defensively

This was a bad signing, Brian Roberts 2.0

[backwardsk]

A 28 yo Hardy would have easily thrown out Billy Butler tonight and the Orioles would have won

A 32 yo Hardy made a weak bouncing throw that Pearce couldn't handle

A 35 will be below replacement level offensively and barely serviceable defensively

This was a bad signing, Brian Roberts 2.0

A first baseman comes up with that throw. Try again.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[webbrick2010]

A first baseman comes up with that throw. Try again.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Against Billy Butler Hardy had plenty of time to make a strong throw, instead he handcuffed Pearce with a one hopper.

Chris Davis would have had it but Chris Davis isn't at first.

Can't believe that everyone is in love with this terrible signing.

Hardy's 2014 just screams of a player in decline, from number of games missed to nagging (see older player) injuries to a massive drop in power.

[Can_of_corn]

A first baseman comes up with that throw. Try again.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And yet somehow Pearce's defensive runs saved metric at first is substantially higher then Davis'.

[DrungoHazewood]

And yet somehow Pearce's defensive runs saved metric at first is substantially higher then Davis'.

Pretty sure Pete Incaviglia once made a great looking play, and Willie Mays fell down on a routine one.