Hardy Extension Announced Today

[Guest]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Orioles have signed SS J.J. Hardy to a three-year contract extension with an option for 2018.</p>— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) <a href="

">October 9, 2014</a></blockquote>

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[Guest]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Hardy, Duquette and Showalter will talk to the media at 6:30 p.m.</p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">October 9, 2014</a></blockquote>

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[Can_of_corn]

Well, something we can criticize for the next four years. For now, I am trusting Dan as usual.

I did state that I don't hate the deal, just that I wouldn't have done it.

I don't think it's a huge mistake.

I don't however think it was a "no brainer". O's are taking on a fair amount of risk.

[MrOrange82]

I did state that I don't hate the deal, just that I wouldn't have done it.

I don't think it's a huge mistake.

I don't however think it was a "no brainer". O's are taking on a fair amount of risk.

If there's really $6.5-ish million in deferred money built into the deal, I think the overall risk for the first three years is minimal. The vesting option could be problematic, but I can't think of many "end-of-deal" seasons that look like good values when you're considering players in their mid/late 30's.

[Satyr3206]

Just don't forget we're not getting 31-year-old JJ Hardy. Players get worse with age.

This is a defensible deal. But it's almost the same deal at the same age that Brian Roberts once signed.

Hopefully he won't whack himself in the head with a baseball bat.

[Rick_Schu]

Love it! Congrats JJ! I think this is a good and fair deal for all parties!

[Frobby]

Just because past teams were terrible doesn't rationalize a poor decision now. As I've said, I'm not terribly against this Hardy extension, hopefully it works out. But I don't see what Freddy Bynum has to do with it. Sidney Ponson isn't influencing the decisions on the pitching staff, is he?

I think the point is, finding the young SS who is going to be the next Hardy and provide significant excess value isn't the easiest thing in the world, as our past attempts well illustrate.

If we weren't a World Series-contending team right now, the case to dump Hardy and try to find a young SS who will become a cheaper version of Hardy would make a lot of sense. But this team is in "win now" mode, legitimately so. You can take that too far, as the Phillies have recently shown, but I don't feel we are way out a that end of the spectrum. Hardy's 31, not 37.

[backwardsk]

I already said that Kang would be option A.

I also have no reservations about Machado being able to handle short. (just if he would be ready for OD)

If there was an internal option at 3B or short, then that would be one thing. Depending on obtaining a FA as plan A is risky as they could sign with another team.

I don't have reservations about Manny at short either, but I feel much better with Hardy and Manny than Manny and Davis or Manny and Paredes.

[Frobby]

I did state that I don't hate the deal, just that I wouldn't have done it.

I don't think it's a huge mistake.

I don't however think it was a "no brainer". O's are taking on a fair amount of risk.

I would have done it, but I agree with your points. There's a fair amount of risk here. In my opinion, there's also some upside, if Hardy maintains his current level of play during the life of the contract (which is worth a bit more than what he will be paid).

[hoosiers]

Some of us remember Brob's 4 year contract too. It's not about finding the best shortstop for $40 mil. It's about fielding the best team for our $100 mil plus payroll. I think you have to assume that Hardy's performance will decline with age. It's a gamble to be sure. I probably would not risk it but I appreciate the security of knowing our shortstop next year.

This has been my stance for most of this season. Be done with JJ after this season, take the value already received from his existing contract and cash him in for a first round pick for a QO - similar to how we should have treated Mora after his first contract (actually we should have dealt Mora at the trade deadline at the end of his first contract). I'd have been fine with letting Davis, Hardy and Cruz go and re-allocating that $25M in other ways and netting two high draft picks. Perhaps even dealing Wieters (perhaps for an upper level SS prospect) and going with Joseph at C. I am leery of LTCs to over 30 ballplayers and I think a competitive team could still be put together without those four. I think the best way to build a long term competitive team is to churn the better players as they age for younger, cheaper ones - a la the As and Rays and other teams. I still lean in that direction and have a concern this team is not as good as its record and that the same team next year will yield fewer wins especially assuming our division becomes more competitive - with a heavier reliance for improvement on Manny, Schoop and Gausman and the maintenance of strong production from Cruz and Pearce.

I've also posted a good/fair deal for Hardy would be around 7.5 WAR over three years and that's about where we are. I have been expecting this signing for a few weeks. JJ is a glue guy for this team, a defensive stalwart, integral teammate and I have no doubt that Buck wants JJ at short. Hopefully, JJ can do work to improve the bad back impact on his game and continue to provide production in the 3.5 WAR range.

DD's plan appears to be keeping this nucleus together and that starts with keeping JJ and, in that regard, I believe our GM achieved favorable contract terms. I appreciate that (I think) this signing sends a strong signal within our division that we are keeping our better players and that the perceived bar to compete with the Os next year will be high again. This signing also sends a signal to FAs that the Os are a viable FA option for those looking for $ AND the chance to be on a competitive team next season.

Our GM wants to keep his 90+ win, division winning team together for a multi-year run. Maybe this is a lesson learned from the BoSox who chose to go younger and cheaper after winning a WS and ended up with a much weaker team than expected .... or perhaps in a few years we will realize we should have followed a similar path. I hope JJ ages well and our GM's plan is a good one.

[MrOrange82]

DD's plan appears to be keeping this nucleus together and that starts with keeping JJ and, in that regard, I believe our GM achieved favorable contract terms. I appreciate that (I think) this signing sends a strong signal within our division that we are keeping our better players and that the perceived bar to compete with the Os next year will be high again. This signing also sends a signal to FAs that the Os are a viable FA option for those looking for $ AND the chance to be on a competitive team next season.

Our GM wants to keep his 90+ win, division winning team together for a multi-year run. Maybe this is a lesson learned from the BoSox who chose to go younger and cheaper after winning a WS and ended up with a much weaker team than expected .... or perhaps in a few years we will realize we should have followed a similar path. I hope JJ ages well and our GM's plan is a good one.

That's the thing. This year's team won without Manny (mostly), Wieters (mostly), and a Chris Davis who didn't look like a shadow of his 2013 self. Factor in a (potentially) full season from Gausman in 2015 and a (potential) contribution from Bundy, and next year's team could be better than this year's.

Given how opaque the O's have been with their finances over the years, I think our "ideal" strategies for building a winning team over the long term's been informed by the assumption that the O's won't spend big, and that assumption has been called into question (somewhat) by this year's payroll increase and things like the Jimenez contract and (now) Hardy extension.

I don't know how well it'll pay off going forward, but it's nice to think that the O's might actually be able to improve next year on a season that's already been (and continues to be) fantastic.

[TonySoprano]

Go ahead and second guess this in 2017, but I like this deal. I've said before of Hardy, Markakis, and Cruz, J.J. was my top choice. We can get a QO pick when Wieters walks after next season, possibly Davis also depending on how he does in 2015.

[mdbdotcom]

As long as JJ is prepared to move over to 3B when he starts losing a step, this should be fine.

[waroriole]

As long as JJ is prepared to move over to 3B when he starts losing a step, this should be fine.

Why would he move to 3B? He already has shoulder issues.

[Frobby]

As long as JJ is prepared to move over to 3B when he starts losing a step, this should be fine.

I'm not too worried about that. I did a small study of shortstops in this age range, and most top fielders lose very little range between ages 31-34. Like several other posters, I think the biggest risk with JJ is just whether he will be healthy enough to play 135 games or more each year over the life of this contract.

I wonder how many people realize that the first year that we had Mike Bordick and moved Cal over to 3B, Bordick already was 31 years old, same as Hardy this season. I'd say Bordy held his defensive value pretty well the next several years, wouldn't you?