Baseball America has Dariel Alvarez 5th on their prospect list

[Frobby]

So going into ST I can discount what every other list says and be confident that Tony and Baseball America have Alvarez in the O's top 5.

I didn't say that. To me, the fact that there really isn't a strong consensus on anyone below our top 3 (Bundy, Harvey, Sisco) among the various listmakers shows that everyone below that is very iffy. That doesn't mean that any of them will or won't make it. Just not a lot of certainty there.

[Can_of_corn]

I didn't say that. To me, the fact that there really isn't a strong consensus on anyone below our top 3 (Bundy, Harvey, Sisco) among the various listmakers shows that everyone below that is very iffy. That doesn't mean that any of them will or won't make it. Just not a lot of certainty there.

That is exactly where I am at.

I like those three and I am intrigued by Connaughton and Reyes.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Duquette seems to talk him up at every opportunity, so I'd guess their are quite a few internal guys who like him quite a bit also.

[weams]

Duquette seems to talk him up at every opportunity, so I'd guess their are quite a few internal guys who like him quite a bit also.

Jomar could be a huge get.

[Can_of_corn]

Jomar could be a huge get.

Far away but intriguing.

[JayThomas]

Scouts in general, according to McDaniel are not very bullish on Alvarez. It appears the Orioles are moreso. Let's be objective though. You find him exciting primarily for the cannon arm. His offense is what will determine if he's a regular or spare part. There are some serious red flags there.

Daniel Alvarez hitting profile is actually very interesting in terms of the Hanselman article posted by Weams. That article is basically pointing out the trend away from 3TO players. That's Alvarez. He doesn't strike out much. He doesn't walk at all. He won't hit a lot of homers. What he does is put the bat on the ball and play great defense.

[JayThomas]

I've seen that he has average speed at best and a great arm. It sounds like he is a good outfielder. Is it someone's opinion that he's a plus, plus defender in RF or "great"?

I might've reached. I'm getting the idea that he can play CF if necessary, and the corners more than adequately.

[paulcoates]

I am not worried about the O's being ranked 22-26th. Not when they have 5 picks in the top 100 come June. I think the ranking reflects the overall depth of the current system. Not Alvarez's potential.

We have 5? Doing some poking around, several places have us with 4.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/9/29/6861445/2015-mlb-draft-order

[wildcard]

We have 5? Doing some poking around, several places have us with 4.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/9/29/6861445/2015-mlb-draft-order

I don't think its a very good analysis. I don't see any compensation picks for free agents signing and I know Seattle doesn't have a first round pick because they lost it when they signed Cruz.

The picks that I think Buck was talking about when he said 5 in the top 100 are the first three rounds plus the competitive balance pick, plus the compensation pick for Cruz. That might be a little higher have the first 100 but its is probably fairly close.

[wildcard]

I've seen that he has average speed at best and a great arm. It sounds like he is a good outfielder. Is it someone's opinion that he's a plus, plus defender in RF or "great"?

I don't consider Alvarez to have great range but his range factor is equal to Jones in center and Markakis in right. Its better than Snider, Lough or Pearce. Do I trust it? No but I do note it. It bears watching.

[Redskins Rick]

Seems to me, folks within the organization and the scouts are being high on the kid.

But, from the OH fans, not to much love,

[Can_of_corn]

I don't consider Alvarez to have great range but his range factor is equal to Jones in center and Markakis in right. Its better than Snider, Lough or Pearce. Do I trust it? No but I do note it. It bears watching.

Not sure why you are grouping Lough in with Snider and Pearce. The defensive metrics have been very kind to Lough.

[SteveO]

I didn't say that. To me, the fact that there really isn't a strong consensus on anyone below our top 3 (Bundy, Harvey, Sisco) among the various listmakers shows that everyone below that is very iffy. That doesn't mean that any of them will or won't make it. Just not a lot of certainty there.

The above seems particularly true regarding the current batch of prospects.

One thing that does encourage me to some degree though is that in Buck we have a guy who seems to have a knack for finding ways to get them most out of guys. So while I am not convinces on guys like Davies, Walker or Alvarez, I am convinced that if they have usuable talent at the MLB level, we have the right manager to figure out how and how often to use that talent moving forward

[wildcard]

Not sure why you are grouping Lough in with Snider and Pearce. The defensive metrics have been very kind to Lough.

There is nothing conclusive here. And I don't trust defensive metric of any kind. My eye test says that Lough is a very good defender with very good range.

However, the only metrics that I have for minor league defense is range factor/game. Here are the numbers for Alvarez and Lough.

Range Factor per Game.

Alvarez, CF - 2.49, RF - 2.03- 2.05

Lough, CF - 1.89, RF - 1.60

These numbers are probably meaningless but they do peak my interest to see what kind of defender Alvarez will be.

[Redskins Rick]

Didnt Duke say when he traded for Lough, one of the points they liked about him, he was an above average OFer?