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Would you pay Wieters a nine figure contract?

AlbionHero

By AlbionHero
in Orioles Talk

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

Posted
Posted
No thanks. I hope he catches as many games as possible this year and we let someone else pay him (although I don't think it'll be close to 9 figures)

There's a reason they drafted so many catchers recently, and I don't think it was BPA.

I agree basically. As long as he is leaving anyway, I will hope for AL MVP, World Series MVP, an NL team signing him, and that the comp pick gets lucky and turns into another Adam Jones or Chris Tillman.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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The Martin benchmark has some of the newfangled framing appreciation baked in, an area where Wieters hasn't excelled yet. There could be some interesting give and take between Boras and the clubs in that area.

Visualizing who the suitors are - you'd think Boras wants a high payroll club, the Pirates of the world aren't going to park $16 MM a year in a Wieters type. Running down top payrolls.

1. Dodgers - if Grandal prospers, they are set long-term. If he busts, Boras smiles.

2. Yankees - McCann's their guy

3. Red Sox - Swihart's their guy

4. Giants - Posey's their guy

5. Tigers - a likely bidder, especially if Illitch is still in damn the torpedoes mode

6. Nationals - probably not enough of an upgrade on Ramos, plus they have too many other 2016 FA's to worry about.

7. Angels - another possible bidder, unless Moreno feels he has already maxed out payroll.

8. Rangers - Alfaro's their guy

9. Phillies - wrong spot on win curve

10. Blue Jays - Martin's their guy

11. Mariners - Zunino's their guy

12. Reds - Mesoraco's their guy

13. Cardinals - Molina's their guy

14. Cubs - Montero's kind of their guy - 2/28 for 2016/2017. If he busts, another Boras smile, but Cubs are probably buying pitching.

15. Orioles

16. White Sox - another likely bidder

That's the top half. Among bottom half now payrolls, Mets are set with D'Arnaud/Plawecki. Could Matt follow Nick home to Atlanta? Astros could be a dark horse - they've said they'll spend when the time is right and by next offseason it could be for them.

Tigers, Angels, White Sox, Astros seem like top four - adding in our chances of retaining him, I'd say it's 90% he remains in the American League.

I guess Padres would not be in there either after trading for Derek Norris from As who is 25 and under control through 2018.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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The Orioles should never even think about dropping $100 million on a 30-year old catcher! I like Wieters, but I think he's going to be way overpaid in 2016 and beyond. Besides, the Orioles went pretty far last year with a defense first rookie catcher and his mediocre tandem mate.

Let's not forget this, ERAs and CS % with Orioles catchers in 2014:

Caleb Joseph: 3.00 (40% CS)

Nick Hundley: 3.49 (19% CS)

Matt Wieters: 3.88 (8% CS yes we know that's why he had the surgery but his career best was 39%)

Steve Clevenger: 4.81 (15%) Anyone want to guess why Buck didn't like Clevenger behind the plate?

Wieters is obviously the better offensive player then any of these guys, but despite all the good things said about him by his coaches and pitchers, traditionally pitchers have thrown better to the back up catchers than Wieters and never did Wieters even had the effect that Joseph had on a pitching staff last year. It remains to be seen whether last year was an anomaly with Joseph, but to me, Joseph is much superior game caller than Wieters.

Regardless, the Orioles will not, and should not shell out big bucks for a 6-foot-5, 30-year old catcher.

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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The Orioles should never even think about dropping $100 million on a 30-year old catcher! I like Wieters, but I think he's going to be way overpaid in 2016 and beyond. Besides, the Orioles went pretty far last year with a defense first rookie catcher and his mediocre tandem mate.

Let's not forget this, ERAs and CS % with Orioles catchers in 2014:

Caleb Joseph: 3.00 (40% CS)

Nick Hundley: 3.49 (19% CS)

Matt Wieters: 3.88 (8% CS yes we know that's why he had the surgery but his career best was 39%)

Steve Clevenger: 4.81 (15%) Anyone want to guess why Buck didn't like Clevenger behind the plate?

Wieters is obviously the better offensive player then any of these guys, but despite all the good things said about him by his coaches and pitchers, traditionally pitchers have thrown better to the back up catchers than Wieters and never did Wieters even had the effect that Joseph had on a pitching staff last year. It remains to be seen whether last year was an anomaly with Joseph, but to me, Joseph is much superior game caller than Wieters.

Regardless, the Orioles will not, and should not shell out big bucks for a 6-foot-5, 30-year old catcher.

Are there any studies that have found catcher's ERA to be a valuable tool? Everything I have read about it makes it sound like complete hokum and not predictive on a year-to-year basis.

Regardless, the statement that pitchers have traditionally thrown better to the backups than Wieters isn't true, at least not for any year other that 2013 (and the month Wieters played last year). In 2013 the team ERA was 4.20, with Wieters it was 4.30. In 2012 the team ERA was 3.90, with Wieters it was 3.79. In 2011 the team ERA was 4.89, with Wieters it was 4.52. In 2010 the team ERA was 4.59, with Wieters it was 4.56. And in 2009 the team ERA was 5.15, with Wieters it was 5.03

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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Are there any studies that have found catcher's ERA to be a valuable tool? Everything I have read about it makes it sound like complete hokum and not predictive on a year-to-year basis.

Regardless, the statement that pitchers have traditionally thrown better to the backups than Wieters isn't true, at least not for any year other that 2013 (and the month Wieters played last year). In 2013 the team ERA was 4.20, with Wieters it was 4.30. In 2012 the team ERA was 3.90, with Wieters it was 3.79. In 2011 the team ERA was 4.89, with Wieters it was 4.52. In 2010 the team ERA was 4.59, with Wieters it was 4.56. And in 2009 the team ERA was 5.15, with Wieters it was 5.03

Which is not to discount any individual pitcher's stated preferences for throwing to a backup catcher instead of Wieters. Pitchers may feel more comfortable throwing to Joseph than Wieters, but any increase in comfort or feeling that they are throwing better to the backups doesn't present itself in Wieters' catcher's ERA.

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Ridgway22 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Ridgway22

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/2016-free-agent-power-rankings.html

If he has a bounceback year, thats what kinda contract he could be looking at. Would you pay it?

1. No.

2. See Mauer, Joseph Patrick.

3. No.

Thanks for the extra pick, Matt. Enjoy your upcoming role as an albatross contract around someone else's neck.

And this from a fan. I love Matt, everything about him, even though his bat can be classified as disappointing compared to our expectations. A gold glove catcher with 20 homers? Yes, please. $100 million dollar contract to pay for his post TJ decline phase? Next, please.

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