Would you pay Wieters a nine figure contract?

[Frobby]

No. 30 year old who has already had TJ surgery? Too much risk for the O's to pay that kind of money for a player who will most likely end up at 1B/DH for most of the contract. I would be MUCH more interested in Chris Davis after a bounce-back year than Wieters. Unfortunately I am prepared to end up with neither.

I think by the end of the year, Wieters either has shown that his arm is recovered, or not. If he's healthy and his arm looks good at the end of the season, the fact that he had TJ surgery in the past is a very minor concern, and I really wouldn't worry too much about the risk that he could become a 1B/DH later. That said, putting aside the TJ surgery, there's always a risk that a catcher's legs won't hold up in his mid-30's, so it's certainly a factor to be considered.

[Redskins Rick]

Nobody will pay him 100M.

MMM, don't say nobody, lots of foolish GMs among the MLB teams.

[Can_of_corn]

Nobody will pay him 100M.

But would they pay him 75 million that looks like 100M?

The media made a big deal about the paper value of Scherzer's deal even though the actual value was much lower.

[MurphDogg]

I am inclined to agree with you then I remember that Shin-Soo Choo got 7/120 when the only thing impressive about his game is his OBP.

If Wieters has a strong year I can see a team being dumb enough to give him 6/100. Of course some of that money might be deferred...

Maybe. Russell Martin got 5/$82M (though insanely backloaded as he is making only $7 million in the first year). Martin is two years older than Wieters will be as a free agent. Martin's last two season's fWAR have been 4.1 and 5.3. Wieters last two full season fWARs have been 3.9 and 2.5. He definitely needs a 5-ish WAR season to have a shot to eclipse Martin.

[MachoMachadoMan]

Russell Martin just signed a 5 year, $85M contract coming off his 31-year-old season. Until last year, Martin hadn't put up more than 100 OPS+ since he was 25 years old.

Boras is going to carry that Martin contract around next offseason and expect more years and more money per year. Even if he got the exact same per year average and it was a 6-year deal, that's your nine-figures.

[AlbionHero]

Maybe. Russell Martin got 5/$82M (though insanely backloaded as he is making only $7 million in the first year). Martin is two years older than Wieters will be as a free agent. Martin's last two season's fWAR have been 4.1 and 5.3. Wieters last two full season fWARs have been 3.9 and 2.5. He definitely needs a 5-ish WAR season to have a shot to eclipse Martin.

Ever since I saw that Martin contract I knew Wieters was gone and getting 100+ mil. Thats the kind of contract he'll look to beat and since he's younger he'll be able to get an extra year.

[MurphDogg]

Russell Martin just signed a 5 year, $85M contract coming off his 31-year-old season. Until last year, Martin hadn't put up more than 100 OPS+ since he was 25 years old.

Boras is going to carry that Martin contract around next offseason and expect more years and more money per year. Even if he got the exact same per year average and it was a 6-year deal, that's your nine-figures.

5/$82M not 5/$85M, so no an extra year would not bring it to 9 figures. And the first year on the deal is only $7 million so it has the real value of closer to a 5/$79M if it were backloaded like a normal contract. Also Martin was better last year (and in 2007) than Wieters has been in any given year. Martin was better in 2013 than Wieters has been any year except one.

[Baroquen131]

I do think someone will overpay, but it won't be us. With the injuries, the inconsistent offense, and the fact that we've had success without him, and can't see how you can justify designating that much payroll to Matt in his declining years.

[Just Regular]

The Martin benchmark has some of the newfangled framing appreciation baked in, an area where Wieters hasn't excelled yet. There could be some interesting give and take between Boras and the clubs in that area.

Visualizing who the suitors are - you'd think Boras wants a high payroll club, the Pirates of the world aren't going to park $16 MM a year in a Wieters type. Running down top payrolls.

1. Dodgers - if Grandal prospers, they are set long-term. If he busts, Boras smiles.

2. Yankees - McCann's their guy

3. Red Sox - Swihart's their guy

4. Giants - Posey's their guy

5. Tigers - a likely bidder, especially if Illitch is still in damn the torpedoes mode

6. Nationals - probably not enough of an upgrade on Ramos, plus they have too many other 2016 FA's to worry about.

7. Angels - another possible bidder, unless Moreno feels he has already maxed out payroll.

8. Rangers - Alfaro's their guy

9. Phillies - wrong spot on win curve

10. Blue Jays - Martin's their guy

11. Mariners - Zunino's their guy

12. Reds - Mesoraco's their guy

13. Cardinals - Molina's their guy

14. Cubs - Montero's kind of their guy - 2/28 for 2016/2017. If he busts, another Boras smile, but Cubs are probably buying pitching.

15. Orioles

16. White Sox - another likely bidder

That's the top half. Among bottom half now payrolls, Mets are set with D'Arnaud/Plawecki. Could Matt follow Nick home to Atlanta? Astros could be a dark horse - they've said they'll spend when the time is right and by next offseason it could be for them.

Tigers, Angels, White Sox, Astros seem like top four - adding in our chances of retaining him, I'd say it's 90% he remains in the American League.

[El Gordo]

There will be enough teams competing for him to bring his contract over 100M Think Boras.

[MurphDogg]

The Martin benchmark has some of the newfangled framing appreciation baked in, an area where Wieters hasn't excelled yet. There could be some interesting give and take between Boras and the clubs in that area.

Visualizing who the suitors are - you'd think Boras wants a high payroll club, the Pirates of the world aren't going to park $16 MM a year in a Wieters type. Running down top payrolls.

1. Dodgers - if Grandal prospers, they are set long-term. If he busts, Boras smiles.

2. Yankees - McCann's their guy

3. Red Sox - Swihart's their guy

4. Giants - Posey's their guy

5. Tigers - a likely bidder, especially if Illitch is still in damn the torpedoes mode

6. Nationals - probably not enough of an upgrade on Ramos, plus they have too many other 2016 FA's to worry about.

7. Angels - another possible bidder, unless Moreno feels he has already maxed out payroll.

8. Rangers - Alfaro's their guy

9. Phillies - wrong spot on win curve

10. Blue Jays - Martin's their guy

11. Mariners - Zunino's their guy

12. Reds - Mesoraco's their guy

13. Cardinals - Molina's their guy

14. Cubs - Montero's kind of their guy - 2/28 for 2016/2017. If he busts, another Boras smile, but Cubs are probably buying pitching.

15. Orioles

16. White Sox - another likely bidder

That's the top half. Among bottom half now payrolls, Mets are set with D'Arnaud/Plawecki. Could Matt follow Nick home to Atlanta? Astros could be a dark horse - they've said they'll spend when the time is right and by next offseason it could be for them.

Tigers, Angels, White Sox, Astros seem like top four - adding in our chances of retaining him, I'd say it's 90% he remains in the American League.

Nice analysis. I agree with much of it, though I think Tyler Flowers could be the guy for the next three years for the White Sox. As for the Tigers, I think Ilitch's health is a bigger factor than whether he is in damn the torpedoes mode.

[fastball]

Only in Toronto.

I doubt DD will pay that kind of money.

[tntoriole]

Wieters would have to be AL MVP this season to get a 100 million dollar contract. And the Orioles are not paying it. Nor should they. Whoever does will be sorry.

[BohKnowsBmore]

how about 6/$96M?

Something like:

10M

12M

14M

18M

20M

22M

[333WCamden]

No thanks. I hope he catches as many games as possible this year and we let someone else pay him (although I don't think it'll be close to 9 figures)

There's a reason they drafted so many catchers recently, and I don't think it was BPA.