Regretting Not Signing Andrew Miller?

[weams]

What kind of idiot spends almost $10M a year on a reliever when it's 7-2 by the sixth inning anyway!??!?!

We should have signed TWO top of the rotation starters.

[weams]

I think the caution comes from the fact that the team has a budget ceiling and that they just can't afford to field a reasonable 25-man roster with more than a small handful of good players paid at free agent rates.

And Ubaldo has a significant advantage over Cruz - he can have his role scaled back. He can be relegated to mopup relief, or scrap a pitch or two and ditch the windup and maybe he's a reasonable reliever. Cruz is already a DH. There's no smaller role to stick him in besides platoon DH. It would be awful hard paying a Delmon Young $15M a year.

Joe Nathan was a 10 million dollar reliever. And a trustworthy one.

[Scrat1]

Can't believe this is still going. Unless the pitcher is Rivera, you don't give a reliever a 40 million dollar contract.

[weams]

Can't believe this is still going. Unless the pitcher is Rivera, you don't give a reliever a 40 million dollar contract.

Yankees did.

[Can_of_corn]

Joe Nathan was a 10 million dollar reliever. And a trustworthy one.

Jim Johnson.

[Ori-Al]

A few nights ago, I was listening to the radio, 105 THE FAN. The guy (I forget who) was making a point that Nelson Cruz wouldn't be worth all that money for 4 years. But if Nellie Cruz had helped the O's get into this year's World Series, then he'd be worth it, even if his production declined for the following years. I pondered on this for several days, read various posts about what Cruz would do in the 4th year of his contract. However, I believe that the guy on 105 THE FAN had a point. Cruz probably wouldn't be producing a whole lot during his 4th year. But there was a good chance that he'd be performing well for this year and perhaps for next year.

I thought that the team should have signed Cruz duringthe off season and I still think that they should have signed him. I know, I know, it's water over the dam and it can't be changed. He plays for the Mariners, and chances are good that he'll help the Mariners get into post season. I just think that he could have helped the Os instead.

There, I had to get that off my chest.

Which Cruz did you think the Mariners were getting this season, great first half Nelson or weak second half Nelson? So far, they seem to have the Nelson we saw in the first half of 2014.

[weams]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Relief pitchers

The highest-paid relief pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10) (2011-12)

2. Rafael Soriano, $14,000,000 (2013-14)

3. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)

… Jonathan Papelbon, $12,500,000 (2012-15)

5. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)

6. Jonathan Papelbon, $12,000,000 (2011)

7. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)

8. Rafael Soriano, $11,666,667 (2011-13)

9. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)

. . . David Robertson, $11,500,000 (2015-18)

11. Billy Wagner, $10,750,000 (2006-09)

12. Craig Kimbrel, $10,500,000 (2014-17)

13. Kerry Wood, $10,250,000 (2009-10)

14. Mariano Rivera, $10,000,000 (2013)

. . . Joe Nathan, $10,000,000 (2014-15)

. . . Jim Johnson, $10,000,000 (2014)

. . . Brian Wilson, $10,000,000 (2014)

18. B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)

19. Jonathan Papelbon, $9,350,000 (2010)

20. Heath Bell, $9,000,000 (2012-14)

. . . Koji Uehara, $9,000,000 (2015-16)

22. Brian Fuentes, $8,750,000 (2009-10)

23. Trevor Hoffman, $8,000,000 (2010)

24. Joaquin Benoit, $7,750,000(2014-15)

25. Bobby Jenks, $7,500,000 (2010)

. . . Rafael Soriano, $7,500,000 (2010)

. . . Heath Bell, $7,500,000 (2011)

. . . Brandon League, $7,500,000 (2013-15)

. . . Sergio Romo, $7,500,000 (2015-16)

30. Joe Nathan, $7,375,000 (2012-13)

31. Joel Hanrahan, $7,040,000 (2013)

32. Jose Valverde, $7,000,000 (2010-11)

. . . Jonathan Broxton, $7,000,000 (2013-15)

. . . Brandon Morrow, $7,000,000 (2013-14)

. . . Huston Street, $7,000,000 (2013-14)

. . . J.J. Putz, $7,000,000 (2014)

. . . Fernando Rodney, $7,000,000 (2014-15)

38. Carlos Marmol, $6,666,667 (2011-13)

39. Jim Johnson, $6,500,000 (2013)

. . . Fernando Rodriguez, $6,500,000 (2015-16)

41. Danys Baez, $6,333,333 (2007-09)

42. Pat Neshek, $6,250,000 (2015-16)

43. Luke Gregerson, $6,166,667 (2015-17)

44. Trevor Hoffman, $6,000,000 (2009)

. . . Mike Gonzalez, $6,000,000 (2010-11)

. . . Matt Thornton, $6,000,000 (2012-13)

. . . Frank Francisco, $6,000,000 (2012-13)

. . . Jeremy Affeldt, $6,000,000 (2013-15)

. . . Mike Adams, $6,000,000 (2013-15)

. . . Jason Motte, 6,000,000 (2013-14)

. . . Grant Balfour, $6,000,000 (2014-15)

[islandecho]

I said it 3 months ago and I will repeat it again. The O's absolutely 1000000000% blew it by not signing BOTH Miller and Cruz. Here is the thing, you cannot replace ELITE players with castoffs and journeymen. Elite players win you games, series, and championships.

Both Miller and Cruz, but especially Miller, are the VERY best at what they do. Miller at basically shortening the game to 6-7 innings to YOUR advantage, by putting FEAR into opposing teams knowing if they don't have a lead going into the 6th-8th inning they are probably going to lose, and by giving a huge shot of confidence to the entire pitching staff that carries over to the whole team. His stuff is maybe the best I have seen in a long long time from any pitcher. And we just said ok, see ya later. You don't get rid of people like that. And Cruz helps by of course hitting home runs and knocking in runs, but also by strengthening the entire order top to bottom which allows for more opps to score runs.

This team as we know it is not going to be around after this year. Paying Cruz and Miller the money they received would have really only hurt this year, and that had a strong chance of being offset by the fact that the Os would have had a great shot to win the whole thing in 2015. Which means all kinds of extra revenue to PA. I don't believe I have ever seen a team, IN ANY SPORT, who after not competing for a championship for 20 years, get so close the year before and THEN PURPOSELY WEAKEN THE TEAM. 99.999999999% of the time that is when most owners and management say "this is a chance we may not get again for another 10 years, it's time to go balls to the walls and go for it". This team? We let are two best players from last year go and replaced them with no one. Its sad. It's disgusting. It's pathetic really. Because after this year? We are losing much of our core anyway, so the money that you would be paying Miller and Cruz will more than offset by the money saved by not paying Davis, Weiters, etc. This was a great chance to win it all, and I can tell you right now this team will be doing very VERY well to finish at 500. It just is not that great of a team.

[Can_of_corn]

I said it 3 months ago and I will repeat it again. The O's absolutely 1000000000% blew it by not signing BOTH Miller and Cruz. Here is the thing, you cannot replace ELITE players with castoffs and journeymen. Elite players win you games, series, and championships.

Both Miller and Cruz, but especially Miller, are the VERY best at what they do. Miller at basically shortening the game to 6-7 innings to YOUR advantage, by putting FEAR into opposing teams knowing if they don't have a lead going into the 6th-8th inning they are probably going to lose, and by giving a huge shot of confidence to the entire pitching staff that carries over to the whole team. His stuff is maybe the best I have seen in a long long time from any pitcher. And we just said ok, see ya later. You don't get rid of people like that. And Cruz helps by of course hitting home runs and knocking in runs, but also by strengthening the entire order top to bottom which allows for more opps to score runs.

This team as we know it is not going to be around after this year. Paying Cruz and Miller the money they received would have really only hurt this year, and that had a strong chance of being offset by the fact that the Os would have had a great shot to win the whole thing in 2015. Which means all kinds of extra revenue to PA. I don't believe I have ever seen a team, IN ANY SPORT, who after not competing for a championship for 20 years, get so close the year before and THEN PURPOSELY WEAKEN THE TEAM. 99.999999999% of the time that is when most owners and management say "this is a chance we may not get again for another 10 years, it's time to go balls to the walls and go for it". This team? We let are two best players from last year go and replaced them with no one. Its sad. It's disgusting. It's pathetic really. Because after this year? We are losing much of our core anyway, so the money that you would be paying Miller and Cruz will more than offset by the money saved by not paying Davis, Weiters, etc. This was a great chance to win it all, and I can tell you right now this team will be doing very VERY well to finish at 500. It just is not that great of a team.

I'm not even going to get started on most of this hot mess of a post, but I will seek clarification on one point.

You say that with Cruz and Miller the O's "would have had a great shot to win the whole thing in 2015" and then you say "I can tell you right now this team will be doing very VERY well to finish at 500".

Are you saying that Cruz and Miller are enough to raise a .500 team to title contender?

[weams]

I said it 3 months ago and I will repeat it again. The O's absolutely 1000000000% blew it by not signing BOTH Miller and Cruz. Here is the thing, you cannot replace ELITE players with castoffs and journeymen. Elite players win you games, series, and championships.

Both Miller and Cruz, but especially Miller, are the VERY best at what they do. Miller at basically shortening the game to 6-7 innings to YOUR advantage, by putting FEAR into opposing teams knowing if they don't have a lead going into the 6th-8th inning they are probably going to lose, and by giving a huge shot of confidence to the entire pitching staff that carries over to the whole team. His stuff is maybe the best I have seen in a long long time from any pitcher. And we just said ok, see ya later. You don't get rid of people like that. And Cruz helps by of course hitting home runs and knocking in runs, but also by strengthening the entire order top to bottom which allows for more opps to score runs.

This team as we know it is not going to be around after this year. Paying Cruz and Miller the money they received would have really only hurt this year, and that had a strong chance of being offset by the fact that the Os would have had a great shot to win the whole thing in 2015. Which means all kinds of extra revenue to PA. I don't believe I have ever seen a team, IN ANY SPORT, who after not competing for a championship for 20 years, get so close the year before and THEN PURPOSELY WEAKEN THE TEAM. 99.999999999% of the time that is when most owners and management say "this is a chance we may not get again for another 10 years, it's time to go balls to the walls and go for it". This team? We let are two best players from last year go and replaced them with no one. Its sad. It's disgusting. It's pathetic really. Because after this year? We are losing much of our core anyway, so the money that you would be paying Miller and Cruz will more than offset by the money saved by not paying Davis, Weiters, etc. This was a great chance to win it all, and I can tell you right now this team will be doing very VERY well to finish at 500. It just is not that great of a team.

Hello! Do we know you?

[DrungoHazewood]

I said it 3 months ago and I will repeat it again. The O's absolutely 1000000000% blew it by not signing BOTH Miller and Cruz. Here is the thing, you cannot replace ELITE players with castoffs and journeymen. Elite players win you games, series, and championships.

Both Miller and Cruz, but especially Miller, are the VERY best at what they do. Miller at basically shortening the game to 6-7 innings to YOUR advantage, by putting FEAR into opposing teams knowing if they don't have a lead going into the 6th-8th inning they are probably going to lose, and by giving a huge shot of confidence to the entire pitching staff that carries over to the whole team. His stuff is maybe the best I have seen in a long long time from any pitcher. And we just said ok, see ya later. You don't get rid of people like that. And Cruz helps by of course hitting home runs and knocking in runs, but also by strengthening the entire order top to bottom which allows for more opps to score runs.

This team as we know it is not going to be around after this year. Paying Cruz and Miller the money they received would have really only hurt this year, and that had a strong chance of being offset by the fact that the Os would have had a great shot to win the whole thing in 2015. Which means all kinds of extra revenue to PA. I don't believe I have ever seen a team, IN ANY SPORT, who after not competing for a championship for 20 years, get so close the year before and THEN PURPOSELY WEAKEN THE TEAM. 99.999999999% of the time that is when most owners and management say "this is a chance we may not get again for another 10 years, it's time to go balls to the walls and go for it". This team? We let are two best players from last year go and replaced them with no one. Its sad. It's disgusting. It's pathetic really. Because after this year? We are losing much of our core anyway, so the money that you would be paying Miller and Cruz will more than offset by the money saved by not paying Davis, Weiters, etc. This was a great chance to win it all, and I can tell you right now this team will be doing very VERY well to finish at 500. It just is not that great of a team.

That's a nice sentiment. But also an oversimplification. You lose a lot of the time betting on career years repeating for 3-4 years.

[islandecho]

I'm not even going to get started on most of this hot mess of a post, but I will seek clarification on one point.

You say that with Cruz and Miller the O's "would have had a great shot to win the whole thing in 2015" and then you say "I can tell you right now this team will be doing very VERY well to finish at 500".

Are you saying that Cruz and Miller are enough to raise a .500 team to title contender?

Absolutely. As I said they are elite talents. Their being in the lineup has implications throughout the batting order and pitching staff.

[weams]

I said it 3 months ago and I will repeat it again. The O's absolutely 1000000000% blew it by not signing BOTH Miller and Cruz. Here is the thing, you cannot replace ELITE players with castoffs and journeymen. Elite players win you games, series, and championships.

Both Miller and Cruz, but especially Miller, are the VERY best at what they do. Miller at basically shortening the game to 6-7 innings to YOUR advantage, by putting FEAR into opposing teams knowing if they don't have a lead going into the 6th-8th inning they are probably going to lose, and by giving a huge shot of confidence to the entire pitching staff that carries over to the whole team. His stuff is maybe the best I have seen in a long long time from any pitcher. And we just said ok, see ya later. You don't get rid of people like that. And Cruz helps by of course hitting home runs and knocking in runs, but also by strengthening the entire order top to bottom which allows for more opps to score runs.

This team as we know it is not going to be around after this year. Paying Cruz and Miller the money they received would have really only hurt this year, and that had a strong chance of being offset by the fact that the Os would have had a great shot to win the whole thing in 2015. Which means all kinds of extra revenue to PA. I don't believe I have ever seen a team, IN ANY SPORT, who after not competing for a championship for 20 years, get so close the year before and THEN PURPOSELY WEAKEN THE TEAM. 99.999999999% of the time that is when most owners and management say "this is a chance we may not get again for another 10 years, it's time to go balls to the walls and go for it". This team? We let are two best players from last year go and replaced them with no one. Its sad. It's disgusting. It's pathetic really. Because after this year? We are losing much of our core anyway, so the money that you would be paying Miller and Cruz will more than offset by the money saved by not paying Davis, Weiters, etc. This was a great chance to win it all, and I can tell you right now this team will be doing very VERY well to finish at 500. It just is not that great of a team.

Where did you say it three months ago so we can laud you for it?

[Can_of_corn]

Absolutely. As I said they are elite talents. Their being in the lineup has implications throughout the batting order and pitching staff.

One is a DH and the other is going to pitch around 70 innings.

Kershaw and Trout couldn't turn a 500 team into a title contender.

[Crazysilver03]

Absolutely. As I said they are elite talents. Their being in the lineup has implications throughout the batting order and pitching staff.

The problem is, they don't have a history of being elite. You are betting on their 2014 years being their new career norm.