Duquette says signing Davis a priority.

[weams]

You of all people know the odds of picks actually making it to the major leagues. You also know that signing Davis and him actually preforming are better odds than any of those picks working out.

I know signing Davis to a contract that would be reasonable would be better. Yes. You will overpay Davis by a 50 million dollar component. In my opinion.

[weams]

If there's one term I hate, it's when people say we should "overpay" for a player. To me, you never want to overpay. That implies, to me, you've paid substantially more than the going market price for the value you got, and that never makes sense.

With Davis, it's all about how good you think he'll be in the future. That's really hard to assess, because he is not a consistent player. Gun to my head, I'll say 15-18 WAR over the next six years. If so, 6/$120 mm is not an overpay. But he could be worth 10 WAR and he could be worth 20+ WAR. If someone pays him for the latter, he won't be an Oriole.

You never want to be that guy. Never. Not in fantasy, not in real baseball, not in life. Now gambling that someone will vastly outperform their probabilities? You can end up winning that way. But you can lose big.

[SpinJr]

You never want to be that guy. Never. Not in fantasy, not in real baseball, not in life. Now gambling that someone will vastly outperform their probabilities? You can end up winning that way. But you can lose big.

I agree it's a short term risk but you do have to invest in market value FA for your organizations long term health. You can't afford not to be that guy. Would you tell a 22 year old kid in his first job to not invest in a 401K or the stock market? Player contracts should be based on future expected performance just like stocks. If the market deems Chris is worth 100M to 120M then that's what it is. If we don't invest in FA then we will be forever poor.

You simply cannot sustain success by continuing to sign the likes of Travis Snider to replace players because you lack courage to effectively operate in today's FA market.

[Ripken]

Davis' contract in 2016 = Norris, Wieters, De Aza. 22.1 million. All replaceable players.

You know, I'd start with the money we're giving CD this season.

I'd say it's more like: Davis 2016 = Davis (2015) + De Aza (2015) + Delmon (2015)

[Frobby]

I agree it's a short term risk but you do have to invest in market value FA for your organizations long term health. You can't afford not to be that guy. Would you tell a 22 year old kid in his first job to not invest in a 401K or the stock market? Player contracts should be based on future expected performance just like stocks. If the market deems Chris is worth 100M to 120M then that's what it is. If we don't invest in FA then we will be forever poor.

I like your stock market analogy, but the point is to invest in the stocks you think are undervalued by the market and avoid the stocks that are overvalued. You might have an investment in a great company, but if you think the market price has gotten out of line, you sell.

[fansince71]

You never want to be that guy. Never. Not in fantasy, not in real baseball, not in life. Now gambling that someone will vastly outperform their probabilities? You can end up winning that way. But you can lose big.

If there's no salary cap and your owner is willing to spend to win, theres no such thing as losing big.

[SpinJr]

I like your stock market analogy, but the point is to invest in the stocks you think are undervalued by the market and avoid the stocks that are overvalued. You might have an investment in a great company, but if you think the market price has gotten out of line, you sell.

I can't disagree. We've seen bubbles like the Yankees, Sox and LA. Haven't you made the case though that Davis is worth 100M+? If I wasn't clear on my position I think he is worth that.

[weams]

If there's no salary cap and your owner is willing to spend to win, theres no such thing as losing big.

I agree completely. If your owner has unlimited resources. That model has been shown to work.

[UpstateNYfan]

I have to admit I'm a bit schizophrenic about Davis. At least a third of the time he's at bat I want to throw something at the screen. But, when he is on a roll, he's something. The game winner the other night reminded me of the famous Kirk Gibson HR in the 88 WS, maybe better. He just flicked his bat out and it made it out. It seems that when he doesn't try to kill the ball he has success. When things aren't going well he compensates by swinging harder. Things I am pretty certain of is:

His contract will be about 20% higher in years and average annual salary than most predict here.

Boras will play the game and a "late" entry will win the bidding process.

Half the OH'ers will say it is way too much to pay and will be happy the O's didn't sign him.

Next season 90% will say the O's should have signed.

It will be PA's fault.

This off season is probably the most important off season in O's history.

This sight will blow up at least three times this off season (I sort of can't wait).

[osfan83]

Priorities this off-season:

#1 Machado

#2 First base/big bat (if that's Davis great!)

#3 Starting Lefty

[brianod]

If there's one term I hate, it's when people say we should "overpay" for a player. To me, you never want to overpay. That implies, to me, you've paid substantially more than the going market price for the value you got, and that never makes sense.

With Davis, it's all about how good you think he'll be in the future. That's really hard to assess, because he is not a consistent player. Gun to my head, I'll say 15-18 WAR over the next six years. If so, 6/$120 mm is not an overpay. But he could be worth 10 WAR and he could be worth 20+ WAR. If someone pays him for the latter, he won't be an Oriole.

If 6/120 isn't an overpay, I say go for it. Why wait? Go for it now.

[DrungoHazewood]

You of all people know the odds of picks actually making it to the major leagues. You also know that signing Davis and him actually preforming are better odds than any of those picks working out.

There's a 100% chance that Davis will be roughly 200 times more expensive than any one of those picks.

Davis' contract in 2016 = Norris, Wieters, De Aza. 22.1 million. All replaceable players.

Best post yet! We can easily pay Davis his money.

Ah yes' date=' the old Trea argument. If you have near perfect success in forecasting players you can use all the savings to sign great players. All you have to do is eliminate all the negative WAR and you're golden. Of course even the teams with huge leads who'll coast into the playoffs have their own versions of Norris and De Aza and Snider.

I agree it's a short term risk but you do have to invest in market value FA for your organizations long term health. You can't afford not to be that guy. Would you tell a 22 year old kid in his first job to not invest in a 401K or the stock market? Player contracts should be based on future expected performance just like stocks. If the market deems Chris is worth 100M to 120M then that's what it is. If we don't invest in FA then we will be forever poor.

You simply cannot sustain success by continuing to sign the likes of Travis Snider to replace players because you lack courage to effectively operate in today's FA market.

But that's not the plan. That's not the quandry. It's not "should we win with Chris Davis or should we try to win with Travis Snider?" It's "should we pay Chris Davis $22M a year for the next six years, or is there a less risky or more cost-effective way to use that money?" Just like this year the decision wasn't to not sign Cruz or Markakis and pocket the cash, it was should they sign Cruz or Markakis and forgo tendering a contract to someone coming off a poor year like... Chris Davis.

[UpstateNYfan]

Priorities this off-season:

#1 Machado

#2 First base/big bat (if that's Davis great!)

#3 Starting Lefty

I like your thoughts, but I'm not sure Manny will be open to an extension. With ARod as his friend, mentor, whatever, I think he will likely be influenced by his career path. Now perhaps, I wonder if ARod looks back (and matured??) and regrets his FA moves. I think maybe (in my fantasy world) that some of these guys look back and regret moving around. Yanks may be the big stage, but it certainly has its share of pressure you don't find elsewhere. If that's the case he may have some influence on Manny's career path.

[mcgraw238]

But that's not the plan. That's not the quandry. It's not "should we win with Chris Davis or should we try to win with Travis Snider?" It's "should we pay Chris Davis $22M a year for the next six years, or is there a less risky or more cost-effective way to use that money?" Just like this year the decision wasn't to not sign Cruz or Markakis and pocket the cash, it was should they sign Cruz or Markakis and forgo tendering a contract to someone coming off a poor year like... Chris Davis.

DD said all offseason the club had the resources to retain Cruz and Nick. Just Saturday DD cited the 4th year on Nelly as the obstacle; The 4th year on Nick was apparently the reluctance given his neck situation. Non-tendering Davis was never introduced to the formula, your making your own assumptions here. That's not to say it was not internally debated (as well as debated here), but that is a scenario which DD has not outlined. In fact, DD cited Davis and others as sources for replacing the output lost by Nick and Nelly. There were other more obvious ways to offset the additional payroll which have been discussed here a thousand times. The club chose to let Nelly and Nick go and allocate its resources in a different manner, the short term result has not worked in the club's favor, the long term result is still TBD.

[spiritof66]

I like your thoughts, but I'm not sure Manny will be open to an extension. With ARod as his friend, mentor, whatever, I think he will likely be influenced by his career path. Now perhaps, I wonder if ARod looks back (and matured??) and regrets his FA moves. I think maybe (in my fantasy world) that some of these guys look back and regret moving around. Yanks may be the big stage, but it certainly has its share of pressure you don't find elsewhere. If that's the case he may have some influence on Manny's career path.

I'm sure A-Rod's views, whatever they are, will exert an influence on Manny's decision (assuming one is presented to him). If I were Manny in a situation like the one we're talking about, I'd want to talk to Evan Longoria.