Managers and their effects upon game outcome

[Migrant Redbird]

I was wondering in the strategic, as well as the tactical sense: knowing your starting 3B is mediocre defensively, do you make sure to carry a utility guy who can flash a good glove at 3B, and if so, is now the proper time in the game to put him in?

The projected backup 3rd baseman, utility infielder Brendan Ryan, is on the DL. In the interim, an 11-year minor league veteran, Rico Washington, is on the team. I don't know what kind of a glove he has, but it was pretty heartwarming to see him get a pinch hit RBI double in his first major league at bat.

I am really, really looking forward to watching the "kids" this year.

In addition to Washington, who will probably be back in Memphis within a week or two, there's rule 5 pick Brian Barton, whom I've been comparing to a young Lou Brock (comparison validity TBD). Barton was an undrafted signee of the Indians, who left him unprotected because of knee surgery last season. He created quite a stir in spring training and made the team. He brought his camcorder along for the opening day ceremonies, then some of the veterans took his camera and filmed him with some of the Cardinals HOF'ers like Brock, Ozzie, and Gibson. Barton also got a hit in his first major league at bat, a pinch hit appearance. Today, he had his second at bat and made his first out.

Then there's Kyle McClellan, the hometown kid whose father has Cardinals season tickets. Kyle was so impressive in spring training that he vaulted to the majors from AA. He has made 2 relief appearances so far -- retired the heart of the Rockies order in order in game 1, then retired the first 4 hitters he faced last night before reality caught up with him and he surrendered his first ML earned run.

Rick Ankiel is off to a quick start, currently hitting .364 and snaring a web gem last night. Skip Schumaker is hitless so far, but has made several sparkling plays in the field, including throwing out a runner at the plate today to preserve the shutout. Ryan Ludwick was a home run short of the cycle last night and sports a .429 average. Pujols is hitting .500 with a .615 OBP. Even Kennedy is hitting .429. Glaus was hitless until he collected a pair of hits today. Izturis doesn't have a hit yet either, but he still sports a .273 OBP.

But the real story thus far is the unexpectedly strong showing of the rotation. After Wainwright's 5-1 lead was rained out, Lohse came back the next day with a very strong showing and possibly would have won 1-0 without the Glaus error. Wellemeyer only lasted 5 innings, but they were scoreless innings, aiding the Cards to an 8-3 win. Thompson went 6-2/3 today and struck out a career high 6 batters; he only pitched into the 7th 3 times last season. With the 3-0 shutout today, the Cardinals patchwork rotation of converted relievers and their supporting bullpen have held last year's NL champions to only 3 earned runs over the 3 game series.

I'm confident that it won't last, but it's sure fun while it continues.

[Mackus]

Would it have been a good decision for Dusty to have told him to go for the home run from the beginning, whether it succeeded or not?

Usually the right move is the exact opposite of what Dusty would do..

[Migrant Redbird]

Usually the right move is the exact opposite of what Dusty would do..

I tend to agree with the announcers who felt that Dusty should have pinch hit for Encarnacion if he really believed that the sac bunt gave him the best odds of winning. (I don't like sac bunts myself, but that's irrelevant to this point.) However, Dusty's failure to pinch hit for Encarnacion led directly to the Reds winning that game -- an apt example of my point that poor managerial decisions can have good outcomes. If Dusty had made the correct decision -- whether that were to take off the bunt sign or to pinch hit -- the Reds probably would have lost the game. Evaluation of managerial decisions based primarily upon outcome simply should not be done, and yet that probably is the primary criteria which fans use.

The problem with evaluating managerial decisions according to more subjective criteria is difficult because the manager has so much information which isn't available to the fan trying to evaluate him. That's why I usually resist the temptation to criiticize managerial decisions, except in the most egregious cases.

One of those particularly egregious cases was yesterday, when Manny Acta walked Ryan Howard to load the bases, setting up the "walk-off walk" that lost him the game. I don't care how good a hitter Howard is, that was a stupid decision by the manager.

Howard's power was largely irrelevant in that situation, because an infield hit would be just as effective at winning the game in that situation as a double or a 3 run homer. Howard might be slightly more likely to hit a fly ball deep enough to score the runner, but the outfielders were playing in and any "Punch-and-Judy" hitter would have been able to hit a fly deep enough to score the winning run. Howard was also probably more likely to hit into the double play or to strike out -- the first and third most desirable outcomes from the Nats perspective.

There were runners on 1st and 3rd, so the double play was already in order without walking Howard.

My anecdotal experience is that pitchers can have terrible problems getting pitches over the plate with the bases loaded and the winning run on 3rd. I've seen it time and time again. I understand that the occasions where the pitcher doesn't walk in the winning run occur much less frequently, but are far less memorable, but that doesn't change the reality that the manager has seriously compromised the pitcher's ability to pitch effectively when he deliberately loads the bases. The pitcher should never throw ball 4 because, regardless of how "fat" the pitch might be, there's always the possibility that the batter might hit it directly at a fielder or pop it up.

[backwardsk]

I tend to agree with the announcers who felt that Dusty should have pinch hit for Encarnacion if he really believed that the sac bunt gave him the best odds of winning. (I don't like sac bunts myself, but that's irrelevant to this point.) However, Dusty's failure to pinch hit for Encarnacion led directly to the Reds winning that game -- an apt example of my point that poor managerial decisions can have good outcomes. If Dusty had made the correct decision -- whether that were to take off the bunt sign or to pinch hit -- the Reds probably would have lost the game. Evaluation of managerial decisions based primarily upon outcome simply should not be done, and yet that probably is the primary criteria which fans use.

The problem with evaluating managerial decisions according to more subjective criteria is difficult because the manager has so much information which isn't available to the fan trying to evaluate him. That's why I usually resist the temptation to criiticize managerial decisions, except in the most egregious cases.

One of those particularly egregious cases was yesterday, when Manny Acta walked Ryan Howard to load the bases, setting up the "walk-off walk" that lost him the game. I don't care how good a hitter Howard is, that was a stupid decision by the manager.

Howard's power was largely irrelevant in that situation, because an infield hit would be just as effective at winning the game in that situation as a double or a 3 run homer. Howard might be slightly more likely to hit a fly ball deep enough to score the runner, but the outfielders were playing in and any "Punch-and-Judy" hitter would have been able to hit a fly deep enough to score the winning run. Howard was also probably more likely to hit into the double play or to strike out -- the first and third most desirable outcomes from the Nats perspective.

There were runners on 1st and 3rd, so the double play was already in order without walking Howard.

My anecdotal experience is that pitchers can have terrible problems getting pitches over the plate with the bases loaded and the winning run on 3rd. I've seen it time and time again. I understand that the occasions where the pitcher doesn't walk in the winning run occur much less frequently, but are far less memorable, but that doesn't change the reality that the manager has seriously compromised the pitcher's ability to pitch effectively when he deliberately loads the bases. The pitcher should never throw ball 4 because, regardless of how "fat" the pitch might be, there's always the possibility that the batter might hit it directly at a fielder or pop it up.

The biggest problem in that inning was the pitcher Colome who fell asleep on Victarino's sac bunt. He didn't cover third when Zimmerman charged the bunt and Guzman covered second. Alertly, Rollins took the uncovered third base. That set up a runner on third with one out.

I do agree that the pitcher is at a disadvantage when he is forced to walk the bases loaded, but the pitcher didn't help himself in that situation.