Offseason Rumors and Deals Around MLB

[TonySoprano]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unless a team fully agrees with Reisinger, difficult to see any club trading for Chapman now, particularly with MLB investigating.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="

">December 8, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Chapman’s attorney, Jay Reisinger, repeated what he told Yahoo - “vehemently denies” domestic-violence allegations against pitcher.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="

">December 8, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[mdbdotcom]

Perfect time to see what they would give up for Britton now. They need something to break their way. Maybe they're willing to pay for it.

[24fps]

If you're content to essentially punt on this year, what's the point in keeping Jones?

There's punting and then there's punting.

I'm content with winning 81 games in 2016 if the offseason is used to better position the team for 2017 and beyond. Zero value-plus deals for O'Day and a potential value-negative deal for Davis (he's a two-time loser on the drug thing as well) aren't a step in that direction IMO.

[TonySoprano]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Reds?src=hash">#Reds</a> Jocketty said any trade of Chapman could take several weeks</p>— C. Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent) <a href="

">December 8, 2015</a></blockquote>

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[Pickles]

There's punting and then there's punting.

I'm content with winning 81 games in 2016 if the offseason is used to better position the team for 2017 and beyond. Zero value-plus deals for O'Day and a potential value-negative deal for Davis (he's a two-time loser on the drug thing as well) aren't a step in that direction IMO.

You think a team that won 81 games last year can lose Davis, O'Day, Chen, Britton, and others is going to win 81 games next year?

I also disagree w the idea that O'Day's deal is a zero-plus value. He's been worth 10 wins the last four seasons. If he's worth HALF that the next four, his contract still has surplus value. I think only either an expectation of injury or an EXTREMELY negative prognostication of O'Day concludes that his value is zero plus value.

[24fps]

You think a team that won 81 games last year can lose Davis, O'Day, Chen, Britton, and others is going to win 81 games next year?

I also disagree w the idea that O'Day's deal is a zero-plus value. He's been worth 10 wins the last four seasons. If he's worth HALF that the next four, his contract still has surplus value. I think only either an expectation of injury or an EXTREMELY negative prognostication of O'Day concludes that his value is zero plus value.

Implicit in my statement is the understanding that the money not spent on Davis and O'Day along with with the evident increase in budget would be spent on players to compensate for their loss. Of course. Wieters is a sunk cost, but I'm mainly thinking about 2017 anyway.

I would trade Britton specifically for cost-controlled close to ML ready prospects. I see no point in spending $7 million AAV on individual relief pitchers in 2016. It's an obvious place to look for short-term economies. Mike Leake will cost $15 million a year. I'd spend it, he'll be around for a while and I think he'll be worth it. Alex Gordon will cost less than Davis and for fewer years and bring some sorely-needed on base skills. There's the draft pick hit, but I would still do it albeit reluctantly. Maybe for Upton as an alternative, ask me when the time comes. Sadly Hayward looks like he will be too rich for Orioles tastes.

Primarily I would take the available resources and use them to try and bring the system back to some semblance of equilibrium with a solid MLB core for 2017 moving forward.

The last thing I would do - the very last thing I would do - is think of the current situation as "lost players". It should be seen an opportunity for a soft hit of the reset button.

[Frobby]

You think a team that won 81 games last year can lose Davis, O'Day, Chen, Britton, and others is going to win 81 games next year?

I also disagree w the idea that O'Day's deal is a zero-plus value. He's been worth 10 wins the last four seasons. If he's worth HALF that the next four, his contract still has surplus value. I think only either an expectation of injury or an EXTREMELY negative prognostication of O'Day concludes that his value is zero plus value.

BB-ref says O'Day has been worth 9.7 WAR, fangraphs says 4.9. If you believe the fangraphs methodology is the better one, it's pretty easy to construct scenarios where O'Day slips below $31mm in value the next four years.

[weams]

I guess Britton IS worth more than Chapman. We take character for granted with the team. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14317320/aroldis-chapman-fired-gun-accused-choking-girlfriend-domestic-violence-incident

[weams]

“There’s a reason they haven’t been attached to any big free agent. They’re not in on them,” one Major League executive tells Feinsand. Another exec says the Yankees are being truthful when they say they’re not planning to add to their payroll, as “that’s what they’ve been telling everybody publicly and privately.” Here’s some more from the Bronx…

The Yankees “said they had a real interest in [Chris] Davis” earlier in the year, a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post, but backed off since “he wants Teixeira money.”

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/yankees-notes-davis-marlins-miller-eovaldi.html

[Pickles]

Implicit in my statement is the understanding that the money not spent on Davis and O'Day along with with the evident increase in budget would be spent on players to compensate for their loss. Of course. Wieters is a sunk cost, but I'm mainly thinking about 2017 anyway.

I would trade Britton specifically for cost-controlled close to ML ready prospects. I see no point in spending $7 million AAV on individual relief pitchers in 2016. It's an obvious place to look for short-term economies. Mike Leake will cost $15 million a year. I'd spend it, he'll be around for a while and I think he'll be worth it. Alex Gordon will cost less than Davis and for fewer years and bring some sorely-needed on base skills. There's the draft pick hit, but I would still do it albeit reluctantly. Maybe for Upton as an alternative, ask me when the time comes. Sadly Hayward looks like he will be too rich for Orioles tastes.

Primarily I would take the available resources and use them to try and bring the system back to some semblance of equilibrium with a solid MLB core for 2017 moving forward.

The last thing I would do - the very last thing I would do - is think of the current situation as "lost players". It should be seen an opportunity for a soft hit of the reset button.

We're not that far apart.

Basically, the only "win later" move you've advocated here is trading Britton. I'm not opposed to that. In fact, I think signing O'Day makes that much more reasonable.

I mean you advocate Leake, but signing him to a much more lucrative contract than O'Day received doesn't make a lot of sense to me. As O'Day is the more valuable player.

Regarding Davis vs. the OFers, I agree. I'd rather sign Gordon or Heyward than Davis. We'll have to see where the final contract numbers end up on all those guys, but I think they're the better players. But I'm not going to criticize for something that hasn't happened yet.

I mean, if your soft "reset" button involves trading Britton, and letting our guys walk, I have two problems w that: First, you are basically punting the next year. Trading Britton, and losing Chen/O'Day, and replacing them w Leake, is not going to allow this team to compete next year, w/o some serious "luck" involving Guasman and Tillman. Secondly, trading Britton isn't going to change the dynamics of the farm system dramatically. They need to draft better; develop better; get more involved internationally, and stop trading away guys in terrible deals for that to happen.

It appears to me they're going to significantly raise payroll this year. Within that context the Trumbo move makes sense. In any context the O'Day move makes sense, as he is likely to be surplus value going forward.

To compete this year they're going to have to thread a needle. That was always the case. O'Day helps in that regard, and imo in no way puts a hamper on the ability to compete in ensuing years.

[Pickles]

BB-ref says O'Day has been worth 9.7 WAR, fangraphs says 4.9. If you believe the fangraphs methodology is the better one, it's pretty easy to construct scenarios where O'Day slips below $31mm in value the next four years.

If someone believes that, I guess I'd want to know what on Earth makes them think that O'Day is suddenly going to revert to his FIP numbers after beating it so handily for so long.

[Pickles]

BB-ref says O'Day has been worth 9.7 WAR, fangraphs says 4.9. If you believe the fangraphs methodology is the better one, it's pretty easy to construct scenarios where O'Day slips below $31mm in value the next four years.

If someone believes that, I guess I'd want to know what on Earth makes them think that O'Day is suddenly going to revert to his FIP numbers after beating it so handily for so long.

[Tryptamine]

If someone believes that, I guess I'd want to know what on Earth makes them think that O'Day is suddenly going to revert to his FIP numbers after beating it so handily for so long.

Day is a rare case whose skills defy FIP, because FIP. If you look at SIERA, which takes quality of contact in to play, you'll see a more accurate representation.

2015: 2.29SIERA

2014: 2.66

2013: 2.99

[MurphDogg]

Day is a rare case whose skills defy FIP, because FIP. If you look at SIERA, which takes quality of contact in to play, you'll see a more accurate representation.

2015: 2.29SIERA

2014: 2.66

2013: 2.99

Yup, and the arm angle that hitters aren't used to seeing gives a perfectly rational explanation as to why hitters make such poor contact against him, and why he outperforms his FIP every season.

[mdbdotcom]

Padres, Cardinals Swap Jedd Gyorko For Jon Jay

What are the Cardinals thinking here?