Let me see if I understand our strategy correctly....

[Frobby]

Cruz was worth eight wins from 29-32, then about 10 from 33-34. The odds of a player being twice as valuable per year at 33/34 than he was previously have to be vanishingly small. If Trumbo is a little more valuable than his current, modest baseline I'll be happy.

Agreed, with the caveat that his baseline was established while mostly playing in pitchers' parks, and I think it is reasonable to think that a guy who hit 29, 32 and 34 homers while playing in Anaheim may be able to crank out 35+ playing half his games in OPACY.

[weams]

How was the Vlad signing any different from the Cruz signing other than results (which you don't know about until after the season is over)

It was all but identical.

[Frobby]

How was the Vlad signing any different from the Cruz signing other than results (which you don't know about until after the season is over)

Very good point. Cruz was younger (33 vs. 36), but Vlad had a pretty decent season the year before joining the O's (.841 OPS, 29 HR, 115 RBI).

[weams]

Very good point. Cruz was younger (33 vs. 36), but Vlad had a pretty decent season the year before joining the O's (.841 OPS, 29 HR, 115 RBI).

My wife reminded me that Cruz was an attempt to add to a playoff team whereas Vlad was simply an attempt to do the Sammy Sosa "get people in the seats to watch a bad team."

[Can_of_corn]

It was all but identical.

Did Vlad slump significantly in the second half?

[Ohfan67]

Very good point. Cruz was younger (33 vs. 36), but Vlad had a pretty decent season the year before joining the O's (.841 OPS, 29 HR, 115 RBI).

In hindsight Vlad's year with the O's wasn't quite the disaster I remembered. Better OPS than Davis' 2014 season. Now back to the subject of the thread...

[eddie83]

Actually, it seems pretty obvious (to me) that the plan is to bolster the bullpen and make it as strong as possible so we can stop trying to get 6 innings out of pitchers who can only go five. That worked for the Royals last year, as their starters threw less innings than any other rotation in the league and yet they reached the playoffs. Given the price of free agent starting pitching and the number of holes to be filled, this seems like a reasonable approach this year. If Gausman continues to develop and Tillman returns to 2014 form, it just might work.

I think you are dead on here. Very much in agreement. Even when the Orioles pitched well in 2014 they didn't have a staff that goes deep into games. The Royals comp is one I have thought about for awhile.

We will see at the end of the day what the Orioles do but I don't see the club with present ownership ever risking big money on a starting pitcher.

[Ohfan67]

Did Vlad slump significantly in the second half?

He was actually a better hitter in the second half.

*I know your real point was Cruz's second half, but I just checked Vlad's stats out of curiosity.

[Ohfan67]

Cruz was worth eight wins from 29-32, then about 10 from 33-34. The odds of a player being twice as valuable per year at 33/34 than he was previously have to be vanishingly small. If Trumbo is a little more valuable than his current, modest baseline I'll be happy.

If Trumbo produces his 162 game average, then I'll be happy (and fairly surprised).

[DrungoHazewood]

In hindsight Vlad's year with the O's wasn't quite the disaster I remembered. Better OPS than Davis' 2014 season. Now back to the subject of the thread...

Oh, that was a disaster. 98 OPS+ for a strict DH. 0.2 rWAR, -0.6 fWAR. They could have saved $7.2M and maybe even gained a little performance by just giving Jake Fox 600 PAs.

[Can_of_corn]

He was actually a better hitter in the second half.

*I know your real point was Cruz's second half, but I just checked Vlad's stats out of curiosity.

Nope, I thought that Vlad had slumped in the second half the season before he signed with the O's.

I recall thinking it was a bad sign for an older player.

[mdbdotcom]

I think you are dead on here. Very much in agreement. Even when the Orioles pitched well in 2014 they didn't have a staff that goes deep into games. The Royals comp is one I have thought about for awhile.

We will see at the end of the day what the Orioles do but I don't see the club with present ownership ever risking big money on a starting pitcher.

If you recall, Buck said last year that the pitching staff would be pushed to pitch more innings. That didn't work out. This year, I think they go the other way. Recognize what their starters can do and build up the bullpen to pick up the slack.

[weams]

Did Vlad slump significantly in the second half?

I think so.

[eddie83]

If you recall, Buck said last year that the pitching staff would be pushed to pitch more innings. That didn't work out. This year, I think they go the other way. Recognize what their starters can do and build up the bullpen to pick up the slack.

I am laughing right now. He says that every year, I bet we hear that again this spring. This staff even when pitching well is not a staff built to throw a lot of innings. I said on another thread the Orioles are hoping that Worley will be their version of Chris Young last year in KC.

[Can_of_corn]

Nope, I thought that Vlad had slumped in the second half the season before he signed with the O's.

I recall thinking it was a bad sign for an older player.

Not sure what you are looking at Ohfan67 but I just looked it up.

Vlad in 2010

First half 919 OPS 147 OPS+

Second half 748 OPS 107 OPS+.