Some impressions of Mark Trumbo

[MDtransplant757]

If we can, and still get Manny; then go for it

[Scrat1]

Hit him with a QO.

[El Gordo]

There are a number of FA options who would give a big RF defensive upgrade as well as having decent offense next fall. Also a number of good DH options. Should be able to replace Trumbo's production for less money.

[brianod]

There are a number of FA options who would give a big RF defensive upgrade as well as having decent offense next fall. Also a number of good DH options. Should be able to replace Trumbo's production for less money.

Trumbo leads the league in homeruns at the break. I'm dubious that's easily replaced.

[El Gordo]

Trumbo leads the league in homeruns at the break. I'm dubious that's easily replaced.

Trumbo is a DH. you don't sign a DH for 15 M + AAV. He is a defensive liability in RF. You could sign a Beltran for less money/years as a DH and maybe an Ian Desmond or Josh Riddick for RF and be better off.

[LookitsPuck]

Trumbo leads the league in homeruns at the break. I'm dubious that's easily replaced.

Trumbo is a liability in the OF.

He'll be given a QO, he'll decline, we'll get a pick and move on.

Thing to keep in mind here is he's 30 in his walk year. Need to be real careful about signing guys like him. Look at his last 3 years:

2013: 109 OPS+, 2.1 WAR (1.8 oWAR, -0.8 dWAR)

2014: 95 OPS+, -1.1 WAR (0.0 oWAR, -1.6 dWAR)

2015: 108 OPS+, 1.6 WAR (1.8 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR)

2016: 126 OPS+, 1.6 WAR (1.9 oWAR, -0.8 dWAR)

Keep in mind in 2014 Trumbo did miss an extended about of time with a stress fracture in his foot. Generally speaking he's been pretty solid averaging 136 games a year from 2011-2015.

I get the attachment to him because he's having a similar season to Nelson Cruz in 2014 (Cruz's was actually better if you can believe it).

Personally I wanted the O's to hang on to Nelson because the contract was affordable. A 3-4 year deal isn't that risky when guys have a track record like Cruz.

I'm guessing Trumbo gets a 4 year deal in the $14-$17/m a year range. But I doubt it's from the O's.

I wouldn't be pissed if they resigned Trumbo. But I think that's more a testament to how bad the OF has been outside of this year.

[DrungoHazewood]

Trumbo leads the league in homeruns at the break. I'm dubious that's easily replaced.

Trumbo has a career OPS under .800, is 30 years old, and has never had a 3-win season in the major leagues. I'm dubious that he's suddenly and permanently stepped up his game to a much higher level as he's exited his 20s.

[DrungoHazewood]

Trumbo is a liability in the OF.

He'll be given a QO, he'll decline, we'll get a pick and move on.

Thing to keep in mind here is he's 30 in his walk year. Need to be real careful about signing guys like him. Look at his last 3 years:

2013: 109 OPS+, 2.1 WAR (1.8 oWAR, -0.8 dWAR)

2014: 95 OPS+, -1.1 WAR (0.0 oWAR, -1.6 dWAR)

2015: 108 OPS+, 1.6 WAR (1.8 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR)

2016: 126 OPS+, 1.6 WAR (1.9 oWAR, -0.8 dWAR)

Keep in mind in 2014 Trumbo did miss an extended about of time with a stress fracture in his foot. Generally speaking he's been pretty solid averaging 136 games a year from 2011-2015.

I get the attachment to him because he's having a similar season to Nelson Cruz in 2014 (Cruz's was actually better if you can believe it).

Personally I wanted the O's to hang on to Nelson because the contract was affordable. A 3-4 year deal isn't that risky when guys have a track record like Cruz.

I'm guessing Trumbo gets a 4 year deal in the $14-$17/m a year range. But I doubt it's from the O's.

I wouldn't be pissed if they resigned Trumbo. But I think that's more a testament to how bad the OF has been outside of this year.

Shouldn't the lesson with Cruz and Trumbo be that it's just not that hard to find a defensively-challenged slugger in his 30s, so it's silly to lock one of them up at $15M+ a year for what is almost certainly their decline years?

[Bahama O's Fan]

Wasn't Cruz a few years older, like 34? Trumbo is younger and could easily be put to DH some as Alvarez will be a FA as well. If you take away his defensive "liability", how would his WAR project? Also, how many runs has he cost defensively?

[DrungoHazewood]

There are a number of FA options who would give a big RF defensive upgrade as well as having decent offense next fall. Also a number of good DH options. Should be able to replace Trumbo's production for less money.

Trumbo is playing as well as or better than he's ever played and he's on pace for a 3.5-win season. His entire career so far, including this year, has been worth 8.0 wins. But, sure, go ahead and sign him based on the assumption that he'll be worth more than that from ages 31-35. That always works out well.

[DrungoHazewood]

Wasn't Cruz a few years older' date=' like 34? Trumbo is younger and could easily be put to DH some as Alvarez will be a FA as well. If you take away his defensive "liability", how would his WAR project? Also, how many runs has he cost defensively?[/quote']

Average 2016 DH: .788 OPS

Trumbo career: .775 OPS

Note that most players hit worse as DHs than when playing the field.

How much and how long would you pay for a 31-year-old DH with a starting point that's charitably average?

[ACDC27]

I love this board one day there's a thread about trading Trumbo for a #4 sp, the next resign Trumbo lol

[Frobby]

For right now, I am just going to enjoy the ride. The guy is on pace to have by far the best year of his career, and hopefully it continues. Assuming it does, obviously you extend him a QO. I think they'll probably discuss a multi-year deal with him, as they did with Cruz, but they won't necessarily go too far out on a limb.

[weams]

I love this board one day there's a thread about trading Trumbo for a #4 sp, the next resign Trumbo lol

Well, in truth, that was Peter Schmuck taking a thought someone here had and running with it. Nothing wrong with spit-balling.

[esmd]

Trumbo is going to hit FA this fall. With the season he's having, he'd be crazy not to. No way he signs an extension prior to that, even if the O's offer him one.