Some impressions of Mark Trumbo

[DrungoHazewood]

My simple contract estimator that I used this past offseason says that if Trumbo stays on pace and has a 3.5-win season he'll be worth a 3/30 extension. How many multiples of that do you think he'll be asking for? Two? Three?

[weams]

My simple contract estimator that I used this past offseason says that if Trumbo stays on pace and has a 3.5-win season he'll be worth a 3/30 extension. How many multiples of that do you think he'll be asking for? Two? Three?

Five/60

[MagicBird]

Shouldn't the lesson with Cruz and Trumbo be that it's just not that hard to find a defensively-challenged slugger in his 30s,

Oh sure, you just dial up 1-800-30+slugger whenever you want. How'd it work out last year when we had the dime a dozen slugger's in the OF replacing Cruz? And how about the other 31 teams in MLB that go out and find the 30+ sluggers whenever they need one just hanging on a tree?

The main difference between last year and this year so far is the 30+ slugger that isnt worth signing . . . . . . yet here we are in first place in the division and werent really a factor last year.

So the lesson is, when you get one of these 30+ sluggers gifted to you, you should rejoice and do all you can to keep him on the roster. Or you end up with the Travis Sniders or trading pitching prospects for deadbeat OFers.

[pastorfan]

Trumbo is going to hit FA this fall. With the season he's having, he'd be crazy not to. No way he signs an extension prior to that, even if the O's offer him one.

We get a draft pick for him. Plus, Mancini may be ready for a DH role in the majors. Save the 15 m and get some pitching.

[Frobby]

Oh sure, you just dial up 1-800-30+slugger whenever you want. How'd it work out last year when we had the dime a dozen slugger's in the OF replacing Cruz? And how about the other 31 teams in MLB that go out and find the 30+ sluggers whenever they need one just hanging on a tree?

The main difference between last year and this year so far is the 30+ slugger that isnt worth signing . . . . . . yet here we are in first place in the division and werent really a factor last year.

So the lesson is, when you get one of these 30+ sluggers gifted to you, you should rejoice and do all you can to keep him on the roster. Or you end up with the Travis Sniders or trading pitching prospects for deadbeat OFers.

Just realize that every penny spent on Trumbo is one you can't spend on other needs. I'm not saying we shouldn't consider signing him, but it's not like the price is irrelevant. And we do need to factor in that he's having a career year that may not be repeated.

[MagicBird]

Just realize that every penny spent on Trumbo is one you can't spend on other needs. I'm not saying we shouldn't consider signing him, but it's not like the price is irrelevant. And we do need to factor in that he's having a career year that may not be repeated.

I understand that. But if the team isnt willing to spend on SP you need to score runs. And the reality is Cruz and Trumbo have been huge factors in the teams success. Im not saying he should be paid a crazy amount, but he should be a priority.

[DrungoHazewood]

So the lesson is, when you get one of these 30+ sluggers gifted to you, you should rejoice and do all you can to keep him on the roster. Or you end up with the Travis Sniders or trading pitching prospects for deadbeat OFers.

And ignore past performance? As well as the effects of age? There were legitimate arguments four months ago that Trumbo wasn't worth $9M + Steve Clevenger, based on past performance.

Trumbo's career OPS is about .775. He'll decline from there. You can expect a three-year deal to get you something like .775/.750/.725. For $50M, if you can get him to sign without that 4th year of sub-.700 performance for another $15M or so. Is that a better or worse bet than going year-to-year with whatever they can find?

[Can_of_corn]

And ignore past performance? As well as the effects of age? There were legitimate arguments four months ago that Trumbo wasn't worth $9M + Steve Clevenger, based on past performance.

Trumbo's career OPS is about .775. He'll decline from there. You can expect a three-year deal to get you something like .775/.750/.725. For $50M, if you can get him to sign without that 4th year of sub-.700 performance for another $15M or so. Is that a better or worse bet than going year-to-year with whatever they can find?

Look you, Cruz didn't decline like you and those other stat guys said he would so Trumbo won't either.

[DrungoHazewood]

Look you, Cruz didn't decline like you and those other stat guys said he would so Trumbo won't either.

Success-based signings. Only sign the guys you know are awesome and will age better than 90% of the population and you're good to go. Clearly you don't go after Blue Jays or Angels or D'backs or whatever who aren't nuggets and will weigh down those aging curves.

[TradeAngelos]

Oh sure, you just dial up 1-800-30+slugger whenever you want. How'd it work out last year when we had the dime a dozen slugger's in the OF replacing Cruz? And how about the other 31 teams in MLB that go out and find the 30+ sluggers whenever they need one just hanging on a tree?

The main difference between last year and this year so far is the 30+ slugger that isnt worth signing . . . . . . yet here we are in first place in the division and werent really a factor last year.

So the lesson is, when you get one of these 30+ sluggers gifted to you, you should rejoice and do all you can to keep him on the roster. Or you end up with the Travis Sniders or trading pitching prospects for deadbeat OFers.

Look we go through this every single year with Drungo. He would never sign a single FA ever except for Machado, and thnks they are all worth about half what they will get. None will ever sustain performance, every one will fall off a cliff, end of story.

[Scrat1]

Would much rather put the money they'd spend on Trumbo toward Schoop.

[Can_of_corn]

Would much rather put the money they'd spend on Trumbo toward Schoop.

I wish they were willing to extend guys in their first few years rather than wait until their arbitration years.

[Scrat1]

I wish they were willing to extend guys in their first few years rather than wait until their arbitration years.

Yeah, that would be nice.

[El Gordo]

Trumbo has a career OPS under .800, is 30 years old, and has never had a 3-win season in the major leagues. I'm dubious that he's suddenly and permanently stepped up his game to a much higher level as he's exited his 20s.

Think Aubrey Huff.

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, that would be nice.

Considering that Schoop was willing to sell off a portion of his future earnings for a payday I have to think he would have at least listened intently to an extension offer during the offseason.

Would not have been hard for the O's to beat the deal he signed.