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Wow, Kim is untouchable

cm1290

By cm1290
in Orioles Talk

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Voros' Law.
Random Chance ? A lot of people understand this fairly well. Baseball statistics are such that the differences in players, even what we would normally consider large differences, aren?t easy to detect at small number of at bats. This isn?t to say that the results on the field are randomly determined, just that if you had a player with an infinite number of at bats at a certain level, there?s no reason to expect him to hit exactly at that level for smaller stretches of time. However, this often isn?t near enough to explain some April deviations in performance. For example, the little homer binge by Grudzielanek mentioned above wouldn?t normally happen by chance, except?

Multiple Endpoints ? Ah yes, we?ve been down this road before. This is a clear example of how multiple endpoints can trip us up when we draw conclusions about the likelihood and explanations for an event, after it has already happened. Though it may be that Grudzielanek is unlikely to hit five homers in fifty at bats by chance, if it had happened to Deivi Cruz, Eric Young or Mike Lansing instead, we?d then be talking about one of them. You see it?s not just the chances of Grudzielanek having such a stretch of at bats, but instead the chances of just one player like Grudzielanek having such a stretch. Suddenly, the odds of it happening become, much much better.

Unrepresentative Sample ? What this means is that in 60 at bats, the circumstances under which the stats were achieved are often (usually) much different than the average set of circumstances a hitter would normally face over a season or career. Each team has only played a few other teams, in only a few other parks, under April weather conditions, often not facing fifth starters. For example, after 64 at bats Ben Grieve had faced Pedro Martinez eight times, or in one-eighth of his at bats. If Grieve faces Martinez one-eighth of the time over an entire season, chances are he?d be a little unhappy. Unless you look really hard, it will be difficult to determine what kind of conditions each player achieved his stats under. Even if you could, because of the above, the results you?d normally get would probably not be worth it.

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Babypowder Hangout Veteran Council

Babypowder

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I give him credit for HR today but in all probability I would be crowned King of England before he is ROY. I would still try like hell to move his contract (not to mention UJ) for COF and SP help. This is a very shaky team right now.

Yeah that Kim contract is a real albatross.

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