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FiveThirtyEight: The Math of Luck


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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-hitting-the-ball-harder-this-year-and-whos-just-getting-lucky/

CHANGE IN OPS	PLAYER	ACTUAL	PREDICTED	DIFFERENCE (?LUCK?)Victor Martinez	+.251	+.270	-.019Domingo Santana	-.034	+.238	-.272Christian Yelich	+.162	+.222	-.060Mark Trumbo	+.127	+.216	-.089Jose Altuve	+.160	+.213	-.053Michael Saunders	+.435	+.207	+.228Matt Adams	+.222	+.200	+.022Mike Napoli	+.019	+.195	-.176Jason Castro	+.089	+.193	-.104Logan Forsythe	+.118	+.190	-.072Average	+.155	+.214	-.060Players with the greatest predicted OPS gains from 2015 to 2016Data as of May 25.SOURCES: MLB ADVANCED MEDIA, FANGRAPHS
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