2016 1st Round Pick - Cody Sedlock - RHP - Illinois

[Frobby]

I'd take it. I'd be pleased with it.

But I wouldn't think of it as a win.

Brach also didn't produce much value (0rWAR) for the team that drafted him.

True, but he's still in his pre-free agency years, so it's the Padres fault if they couldn't unlock his talent. By the time he is FA-eligible, he might be up to 8 WAR or so.

[ArtVanDelay]

11:35

Joe: Did the Orioles get a nice value with Sedlock at 27? What’s his ceiling?

11:36

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was fine. I liked Dakota Hudson better but his stuff backed up late in the year and some are worried he’s hurt. Sedlock will show you 95, he throws strikes and the secondaries are solid average. Nothing to miss bats and not sure he has a real way of getting out left-handed hitters right now. He could be a fourth or fifth starter, and that’s about what you can expect as the profile of a late first rounder.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat/

[eb45]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat/

Typical Fangraphs, artificially deflating expectations instead of actually writing with nuance. Sigh.

[ISU94]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat/

He definitely has higher upside than that...#2/#3 I've heard.

[scOtt]

[eb45]

Typical Fangraphs, artificially deflating expectations instead of actually writing with nuance. Sigh.

To expand on this:

"He could be a fourth or fifth starter, and that’s about what you can expect as the profile of a late first rounder" is some lazy analysis. Sure, as of today that's probably the most likely outcome, but there are so many if/thens that Longenhagen doesn't bother addressing. For example, some tweaks to his delivery (specifically more efficient use of his bottom half) could add a couple ticks to the fastball, and suddenly that becomes a genuine out pitch. Maybe that could also add a little more bite to the slider. And, knowing the Orioles, chances are they'll want him to improve his changeup, which could turn into something that gets lefties out. Obviously it's not good analysis to predict all these things happening, so it's wise to be cautious and throw the 4/5 starter as a likely-case outcome, but there's room for Sedlock to grow and hit his 80 or 90th percentile outcome, which is more in the realm of a 2/3 starter. And there's also always the possibility that he never develops a change, the breaking balls are below average, and the fastball doesn't play at ML level. That's more of a 20th percentile outcome. Anything and everything between these are all possibilities!

What I'm saying is, it's silly to ignore the high-end outcomes and just throw out the likely case as though it's his ceiling, and it's emblematic of a bigger problem I have with Fangraphs, where their writers seem to be concerned primarily with appearing "reasonable," i.e. treating the 50th percentile outcome as though it's the only thing that can be expected to happen. It's one possible outcome! Predicting middle-of-the-road for everything (except the Mariners) is boring and safe and above all makes you look like you're not confident enough in your own abilities to risk being wrong. Maybe I'm being too harsh on Longenhagen for one quick answer in a prospect chat (I hate prospect chats, by the way) and I'm projecting issues I have with other Fangraphs writers onto him. But I think the point is valid nonetheless.

[Mitch Connor]

True, but he's still in his pre-free agency years, so it's the Padres fault if they couldn't unlock his talent. By the time he is FA-eligible, he might be up to 8 WAR or so.

I wouldn't say the Orioles have a good track record of unlocking talent.

[Frobby]

I wouldn't say the Orioles have a good track record of unlocking talent.

They have a mixed record. Rodrigo Lopez, Jeremy Guthrie, Miguel Gonzalez and Brad Brach are all guys who failed in other organizations but found some success in Baltimore. I found what Brach had to say the other day pretty interesting:

Three years ago, it would have been hard to imagine Brach earning such high praise. A week after the Padres designated him for assignment following the 2013 campaign, he was traded to the Orioles, a change of scenery that changed his career.

"I really believe that everybody should get a chance to play for two organizations," Brach said. "You get another set of eyes, another set of coaches to see your stuff."

In Brach’s case, the difference-maker was Baltimore bullpen coach Dom Chiti. One day in 2014, during his first spring training with the Orioles, Brach walked into the team weight room in Sarasota, Florida, to find Chiti waiting for him.

"Your line sucks," the coach told his new pitcher, referring to the way Brach used to set up in the stretch position, on the far left side of the rubber with his right foot angled, pointing toward shortstop, and his toe just barely on the slab. As a result, Brach was lunging toward third base, then throwing back over his body.

"I was literally throwing against myself," said Brach, standing in front of his locker before a recent game. He gives an exaggerated demonstration of the now-obsolete motion, and it looks something like a Kareem Abdul-Jabbar sky hook.

In order to unhook the hook, Chiti suggested that Brach square up to the rubber. Ya know, like a normal pitcher. The results were immediate: Instead of throwing 91-93 mph, his fastball suddenly sat at 94-96.

"Hardest I'd ever thrown," said Brach, who pitched in college at Monmouth University after going largely unrecruited out of Freehold Township High School in New Jersey, where his mid- to high-80s cheese impressed approximately nobody.

http://espn.go.com/blog/baltimore-orioles/post/_/id/945/meet-brad-brach-baseballs-most-underrated-reliever

So I think it's fair to say that the Orioles unlocked his talent. The interesting thing is that the correction he needed was to stop throwing across his body. Of course, Jake Arietta was the opposite -- the O's forced him to stop throwing across his body and it messed him up. Just goes to show, there is no one-size fits all solution. It's not right to say that every pitcher should just do what they've always done, but it's also not right to say that every pitcher should be forced to do things the "right" way. (I hasten to add that Wallace and Chiti never coached Arietta).

[backwardsk]

Signed for $2,097,200.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OsEatAlEast]

I know I threw out the Scott Erickson comparison. But after watching the video NevadaO posted on Sedlock's pitching mechanics. They have similar styles in both windup and stretch.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XXHOUjg_eUw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Gy-uSRDwWf0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/btpGgsR1CfA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Just for fun I'm including an interview

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WfS-ge2R388" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bATp6RFrNbI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[TINSTAAPP]

Typical Fangraphs, artificially deflating expectations instead of actually writing with nuance. Sigh.

It's interesting. The KATOH system from Fangraphs actually projects Cody Sedlock to have the second highest project among college players selected in the first round and the fourth highest probability of reaching the Majors.

27. Cody Sedlock, RHP, Baltimore

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 2.3

KATOH loves Cody Sedlock. Although Illinois squeezed a lot of innings out of him, he still pitched excellently by all measures. He missed lots of bats, and did an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-college-players-taken-on-day-one-of-the-draft/

[Aglets]

Any word yet where Sedlock is going to be assigned?

[bobmc]

Any word yet where Sedlock is going to be assigned?

The right-hander out of the University of Illinois today signed his first pro contract for a slot bonus of $2,097,200. Taken 27th overall in the First-Year Player Draft, Sedlock is expected to report to Sarasota, Fla., for an orientation and then join the short season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds. It is possible he could first pitch in a game or two in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2016/06/os-game-blog-cody-sedlock-signs-and-tonights-matchup.html