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Trumbo in the Home Run Derby

ArtVanDelay

By ArtVanDelay
in Orioles Talk

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ArtVanDelay Hangout Grand Counsel

ArtVanDelay

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trumbo said he will participate in the Home Run Derby. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a></p>— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) <a href="

">July 7, 2016</a></blockquote>

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maybenxtyr Hangout Veteran Council

maybenxtyr

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Cue whiny posts about him screwing up his swing. Any decline in the 2nd half will have outcries of how the home run derby ruined him. I can hardly wait.

I was thinking the same thing. At least the second half swoon that everyone is already complaining about will have an excuse.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Cue whiny posts about him screwing up his swing. Any decline in the 2nd half will have outcries of how the home run derby ruined him. I can hardly wait.

Player has super hot start and is on highest HR pace of his career, so is world's best regression candidate, but would have continued to have career year at 30 if not for an extended session of televised batting practice.

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tinamodotti Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

tinamodotti

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I believe the "theory" was that because guys try to hit homers in the derby, it messes them up because they will try to hit homers the rest of the year.

But Trumbo probably already tries to hit homers, so he can't be messed up.

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LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

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Home Run Derby curse, fact or fiction? We have no choice but to conclude that it’s fiction. If we consider all the ways that the statistics should behave if there is no curse, we find that they consistently match that model. Certainly, some players will have a decline in power-hitting statistics from the first half of the season to the second after participating in the Derby, but it is clear from the analysis that this would have occurred for those players regardless of whether they chose to participate or not.

http://sabr.org/research/home-run-derby-curse-fact-or-fiction

If Trumbo is going to decline, I doubt it'll be because of the HRB. It'll most likely be because of his general history of declining in the second half.

Some interesting notes now 84 games into the season for Trumbo. 84 game slices for Trumbo over the years and what he ended with at the end of the year:

2011: .260/.305/.483 - .788 OPS, 17 HR - END: .255/.305/.473 - .778 OPS, 29 HR (-.010 OPS, +12 HR)

2012: .305/.357/.622 - .979 OPS, 26 HR - END: .268/.317/.491 - .808 OPS, 32 HR (-.171 OPS, +6 HR)

2013: .251 /.320/.468 - .787 OPS, 18 HR - END: .234/.294/.453 - .747 OPS, 34 HR (-.040 OPS, +16 HR)

*2014: .236/.295/.404 - .699 OPS, 12 HR - END: .235/.293/.415 - .707 OPS, 14 HR (+.008 OPS, +2 HR)

2015: .243 /.283 /.424 - .708 OPS, 12 HR - END: .262/.310/.449 - .759, 22 HR (+.051 OPS, +10 HR)

2016: .285/.334/.570 - .904 OPS, 26 HR - END: ???

*INJURED

His overall numbers (career)

1st half: .264/.315/.511 - .826 OPS, 15.9 AB per HR

2nd half: .242/.290/.419 - .709 OPS, 23.4 AB per HR

That's as pretty precipitous drop off of both OPS and AB/HR. Will it happen again this year? We can't say definitely, but we do have ~3,000 AB of data in support of it.

I don't want it to happen. No Orioles fan should. But it's not as if the detractors don't have ammo to the argument.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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http://sabr.org/research/home-run-derby-curse-fact-or-fiction

If Trumbo is going to decline, I doubt it'll be because of the HRB. It'll most likely be because of his general history of declining in the second half.

Some interesting notes now 84 games into the season for Trumbo. 84 game slices for Trumbo over the years and what he ended with at the end of the year:

2011: .260/.305/.483 - .788 OPS, 17 HR - END: .255/.305/.473 - .778 OPS, 29 HR (-.010 OPS, +12 HR)

2012: .305/.357/.622 - .979 OPS, 26 HR - END: .268/.317/.491 - .808 OPS, 32 HR (-.171 OPS, +6 HR)

2013: .251 /.320/.468 - .787 OPS, 18 HR - END: .234/.294/.453 - .747 OPS, 34 HR (-.040 OPS, +16 HR)

*2014: .236/.295/.404 - .699 OPS, 12 HR - END: .235/.293/.415 - .707 OPS, 14 HR (+.008 OPS, +2 HR)

2015: .243 /.283 /.424 - .708 OPS, 12 HR - END: .262/.310/.449 - .759, 22 HR (+.051 OPS, +10 HR)

2016: .285/.334/.570 - .904 OPS, 26 HR - END: ???

*INJURED

His overall numbers (career)

1st half: .264/.315/.511 - .826 OPS, 15.9 AB per HR

2nd half: .242/.290/.419 - .709 OPS, 23.4 AB per HR

That's as pretty precipitous drop off of both OPS and AB/HR. Will it happen again this year? We can't say definitely, but we do have ~3,000 AB of data in support of it.

I don't want it to happen. No Orioles fan should. But it's not as if the detractors don't have ammo to the argument.

I think its just as likely that Trumbo happened to have two exceptionally hot streaks in the beginning of 2012 and 2016 that have skewed the numbers somewhat. And those halves were also his highest BAs, suggesting BABIP spikes, which we know are subject to a lot of noise. He may wear down as the season goes on, but I don't know that the data taken as a whole indicates he's primed for a huge falloff. If you just look at 2011, 2013-15 his overall numbers were pretty flat across the two halves. In fact, the two preceding years he played better the second half than the first.

I almost never fully trust splits besides platoon splits and extreme home/road splits, and they have to have a long history to support them.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I believe the "theory" was that because guys try to hit homers in the derby, it messes them up because they will try to hit homers the rest of the year.

But Trumbo probably already tries to hit homers, so he can't be messed up.

Well. All is well!

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