The Blue Jays series, July 29-31

[Frobby]

The O's come into Toronto riding a three-game losing streak, and playing .500 ball in July and post-all star break. They are in a very rough offensive slump, and have played 14 games in 14 days since the break, and traveled from Baltimore to Minnesota to Toronto in the last 48 hours. The Jays are 14-7 in July, but only 6-5 since the all star break. They're well rested, having had 3 days off since the all star break, including yesterday, and they have been at home since last Friday. The Jays are 5-5 vs. the O's this year, but 3-1 at Rogers Centre. So in short, we have our work cut out for us. The matchups:

Gausman (2-7, 3.77) vs. Estrada (5-4, 2.94)

Gallardo (3-2, 5.37) vs. Happ (13-3, 3.27)

Tillman (14-3, 3.47) vs. Sanchez (11-1, 2.72)

Gausman is coming off two very good post-ASG starts, including a 7 inning shutout of Cleveland in his last start. He faced Toronto on June 10, allowing 3 runs, 2 earned in 6.1 IP and getting non-decisioned in a game we eventually lost. Estrada missed a little time in July, but came back on July 22 and allowed 2 ER in 6 IP. He got non-decisioned against the O's on April 21 despite allowing only 1 run in 5 IP, then got non decisioned again on June 10, allowing 3 runs in 6 IP against Gausman.

Gallardo has changed his approach since the break and has been much more aggressive, allowing him to go 7 and 6.2 innings in those games. He beat Toronto on June 18, allowing 2 runs in 5 IP in his first game off the DL. Happ has been on fire, posting a 1.48 ERA in July. He beat the Orioles on June 11, allowing 4 ER in 7 IP.

Tillman was having a great July until his last outing, in which he allowed 6 earned runs (though with some shaky defensive plays contributing) in 5 IP. He's faced Toronto twice this year, getting non-decisioned in a win on April 21 while allowing 2 runs in 6 IP, and picking up a cheap win on June 18 despite allowing 4 ER in 5 IP. Sanchez is red hot, carrying a 1.33 ERA in July and winning 10 straight decisions. He got two wins against the Orioles on June 12 and 17, allowing 6 runs in 5 IP in the first one and 2 runs (1 earned) in 6 IP in the second. The Jays scored 23 runs in those two games.

Toronto's offense has been hot in July (.785 OPS, 118 runs in 21 games), but a little cooler since the ASB (.708 OPS, 54 runs in 11 games). Their bullpen has been up and down depending on the pitcher. Brett Cecil and Jesse Chavez have been struggling but everyone else has been looking very good.

Bottom line -- this is an extremely dangerous series for the Orioles. Hopefully we can eke out a win or two, but it's going to be challenging.

[SteveA]

I say: bats wake up and we take 2 out of 3.

[El Gordo]

Hoping to win one and stay in first place

[OregonBird]

O's go 1-2, Toronto scores 24 runs in the series

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[sportsfan8703]

Swept, I'm sure of it.

[pastorfan]

Excellent analysis, Frobby. Since nothing makes sense these days, I'll say the bats wake up and allow us to win two of three.

[MDK02]

I say: bats wake up and we take 2 out of 3.

This would be beautiful.

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[tntoriole]

The O's come into Toronto riding a three-game losing streak, and playing .500 ball in July and post-all star break. They are in a very rough offensive slump, and have played 14 games in 14 days since the break, and traveled from Baltimore to Minnesota to Toronto in the last 48 hours. The Jays are 14-7 in July, but only 6-5 since the all star break. They're well rested, having had 3 days off since the all star break, including yesterday, and they have been at home since last Friday. The Jays are 5-5 vs. the O's this year, but 3-1 at Rogers Centre. So in short, we have our work cut out for us. The matchups:

Gausman (2-7, 3.77) vs. Estrada (5-4, 2.94)

Gallardo (3-2, 5.37) vs. Happ (13-3, 3.27)

Tillman (14-3, 3.47) vs. Sanchez (11-1, 2.72)

Gausman is coming off two very good post-ASG starts, including a 7 inning shutout of Cleveland in his last start. He faced Toronto on June 10, allowing 3 runs, 2 earned in 6.1 IP and getting non-decisioned in a game we eventually lost. Estrada missed a little time in July, but came back on July 22 and allowed 2 ER in 6 IP. He got non-decisioned against the O's on April 21 despite allowing only 1 run in 5 IP, then got non decisioned again on June 10, allowing 3 runs in 6 IP against Gausman.

Gallardo has changed his approach since the break and has been much more aggressive, allowing him to go 7 and 6.2 innings in those games. He beat Toronto on June 18, allowing 2 runs in 5 IP in his first game off the DL. Happ has been on fire, posting a 1.48 ERA in July. He beat the Orioles on June 11, allowing 4 ER in 7 IP.

Tillman was having a great July until his last outing, in which he allowed 6 earned runs (though with some shaky defensive plays contributing) in 5 IP. He's faced Toronto twice this year, getting non-decisioned in a win on April 21 while allowing 2 runs in 6 IP, and picking up a cheap win on June 18 despite allowing 4 ER in 5 IP. Sanchez is red hot, carrying a 1.33 ERA in July and winning 10 straight decisions. He got two wins against the Orioles on June 12 and 17, allowing 6 runs in 5 IP in the first one and 2 runs (1 earned) in 6 IP in the second. The Jays scored 23 runs in those two games.

Toronto's offense has been hot in July (.785 OPS, 118 runs in 21 games), but a little cooler since the ASB (.708 OPS, 54 runs in 11 games). Their bullpen has been up and down depending on the pitcher. Brett Cecil and Jesse Chavez have been struggling but everyone else has been looking very good.

Bottom line -- this is an extremely dangerous series for the Orioles. Hopefully we can eke out a win or two, but it's going to be challenging.

Agree with excellent analysis, although I might have also included that the Orioles are technically 11-9 in the second half. Most people regard the AS break as the end of the first half and beginning of the second half, but of course game 81 represents the end of the first half. We were 47-34 at game 81 and now are 58-43, so we have gone 11-9 in the second half.

[Frobby]

Agree with excellent analysis, although I might have also included that the Orioles are technically 11-9 in the second half. Most people regard the AS break as the end of the first half and beginning of the second half, but of course game 81 represents the end of the first half. We were 47-34 at game 81 and now are 58-43, so we have gone 11-9 in the second half.

Yes, 11-9 in the second half, but that started on July 4. We're actually 11-12 in July, rather than .500 as I thought when I made the OP. We need to win 2 of 3 in Toronto to have a .500 month.

[bobmc]

I say: bats wake up and we take 2 out of 3.

Joey Bats? :scratchchinhmm:

[tntoriole]

Joey Bats? :scratchchinhmm:

Joey Bathroom can take a seat. The big jerk.

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[Johnny]

Does Wieters know how to call for a changup?

[bobmc]

Joey Bathroom can take a seat. The big jerk.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The guy they call Joey Bats homers and this game is going to be interesting. It is LOUD here. 2-1, Os.</p>— Brittany Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) <a href="

">July 29, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gausman regroups with a scoreless second. Fanned Bautista with a 96 mph FB and Donaldson on the split.</p>— Steve Melewski (@masnSteve) <a href="

">July 29, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Ori-Al]

Gausman forgot to show up for the game.

[LookitsPuck]

So did the ump.