Bobby Dickerson

[LookitsPuck]

Sent Hardy on Jones' single with one out.

Didn't send Stubbs on Manny's fly, which was the second out of the inning.

I don't know about either of those decisions. With 1st and 3rd and one out (if Hardy is held) chances of scoring are 63%. With bases loaded and two out (after Manny's fly), chances of scoring are 32%. Throw in the speed of the two runners involved, I think both decisions were bad (even though Hardy was almost safe).

Agreed.

Dickerson is a joke.

[El Gordo]

Agreed.

Dickerson is a joke.

His aggressiveness is on Buck. That's what he wants. The joke's on you.

[Filmstudy]

Dickerson is really the most aggressive 3B coach I have ever seen. I mean, he's aggressive for little league. Most of the time, I like it. I was not surprised he sent Hardy. And given how poorly we get runners home, I don't have a problem with it. Surprised he held Stubbs later in the game.

The best we ever had was of course Cal Sr. But I remember thinking Demarlo Hale was excellent. The worst.... hands down... Tom Treblehorn.

We used to call him "Cautious Cal" in the 1980s.

In fact, when I say Stubbs held at 3rd, I thought Dickerson was channeling Cal Ripken circa 9/22/92 when Cal held Brady at 3B on a shallow fly to Devon White.

[Filmstudy]

Sent Hardy on Jones' single with one out.

Didn't send Stubbs on Manny's fly, which was the second out of the inning.

I don't know about either of those decisions. With 1st and 3rd and one out (if Hardy is held) chances of scoring are 63%. With bases loaded and two out (after Manny's fly), chances of scoring are 32%. Throw in the speed of the two runners involved, I think both decisions were bad (even though Hardy was almost safe).

I can guess how you get to 32%, although it seems low if you're estimating Davis' OBP vs. that pitcher plus the residual chance of a WP, PB, E, etc.

How are you estimating the 63%?

Edited September 24, 2016 by Filmstudy

[Frobby]

I can guess how you get to 32%, although it seems low if you're estimating Davis' OBP vs. that pitcher plus the residual chance of a WP, PB, E, etc.

How are you estimating the 63%?

Actually, I was using 6 years of MLB data from Tom Tango's base/out expectancy matrix: http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html. The numbers would vary a bit depending on the actual hitters, but the odds with 1st and 3rd, one out are much better than the odds with bases loaded, two out, for the obvious reason that you have two potential chances to get the run home from third compared to one, and with one out can get a run home on a sac fly or well placed ground ball.

[InsideCoroner]

Dickerson is really the most aggressive 3B coach I have ever seen.

What about Juan "The Windmill" Samuel?

[Frobby]

Dickerson is really the most aggressive 3B coach I have ever seen. I mean, he's aggressive for little league. Most of the time, I like it. I was not surprised he sent Hardy. And given how poorly we get runners home, I don't have a problem with it. Surprised he held Stubbs later in the game.

The best we ever had was of course Cal Sr. But I remember thinking Demarlo Hale was excellent. The worst.... hands down... Tom Treblehorn.

In my opinion, the best we had in recent years was Sam Perlozzo.

Based on the available data, I'd say Dickerson has been about average as a 3B coach this year. Before last night, we'd had 12 runners thrown out at home; 15 is league average. We've also been about average in the percentage of times we've tried to score from 2nd on a single or from 1st on a double. Considering we're a slow team, that's pretty solid.

[Aristotelian]

They must not have done their homework on the LF. Sent JJ and saw that he had a good arm, then held up Stubbs in a potentially better situation because he had seen that the guy could throw. If they had done their homework in the beginning maybe he holds JJ the first time.

[Frobby]

They must not have done their homework on the LF. Sent JJ and saw that he had a good arm, then held up Stubbs in a potentially better situation because he had seen that the guy could throw. If they had done their homework in the beginning maybe he holds JJ the first time.

The guy was in the game as a defensive replacement, so they should have had a clue. To be fair, his major league experience is very limited (233 innings) and he plays in the NL, so they haven't had much opportunity to scout him at the major league level.

[JohnD]

Dickerson is among the least of the problems. He's had some pretty gutsy sends that paid off. You'll never be perfect in that job, and sometimes the OF will just make a good throw to beat you. But if you're complaining about sending Hardy last night then you're just looking for something to complain about and someone to scapegoat.

Meanwhile all those people bashing Dickerson, uh, did you guys forget about his work as infield coach too? Or have the Orioles become complete hacks with the gloves around the diamond too?

Out of all the coaches on the staff Dickerson has separated himself as the very best relative to anyone else. Russell might be the only other one in the conversation.

[Aristotelian]

The guy was in the game as a defensive replacement, so they should have had a clue. To be fair, his major league experience is very limited (233 innings) and he plays in the NL, so they haven't had much opportunity to scout him at the major league level.

Frobby, these guys are getting paid to look at players and stats. What you and I do for fun is their full time job. You have to know the other team's roster. The season is on the line here and every decision from here out could make the difference.

[DrungoHazewood]

Dickerson is really the most aggressive 3B coach I have ever seen. I mean, he's aggressive for little league. Most of the time, I like it. I was not surprised he sent Hardy. And given how poorly we get runners home, I don't have a problem with it. Surprised he held Stubbs later in the game.

The best we ever had was of course Cal Sr. But I remember thinking Demarlo Hale was excellent. The worst.... hands down... Tom Treblehorn.

I think most 3B coaches are probably too conservative, and we remember Cal Sr. as a great 3B coach because he was pre-internet. Today he'd be on the chopping block like everyone else.

[Frobby]

I think most 3B coaches are probably too conservative, and we remember Cal Sr. as a great 3B coach because he was pre-internet. Today he'd be on the chopping block like everyone else.

Since I have been on the OH, every 3B coach has had a thread criticizing him for being too aggressive. From time to time I've posted data similar to the above, which has usually shown our guy to be nothing unusual. One day, I'll do a full blown analysis. Probably a day in the middle of January after I've retired.

[Frobby]

In the meantime, here are the number of runners thrown out at home during Cal Sr.'s full seasons as 3B coach: 16, 13, 16, 13, 17, 15, 14, 16. That compares with 13 this year.

[BohKnowsBmore]

You might disagree with Buck not pinch running for Hardy, but he wasn't asleep. He just explained his thinking in the presser. Basically, in a tie game at home, he doesn't do it. If we'd been down a run, he would have.

And they actually asked him, for once!

Well said. One may disagree with a decision, but to suggest that Buck is asleep or unaware of game situation is completely off the reservation.

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