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vs. D'BACKS, 9/25


Sessh

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    • Definitely think Povich will be up within the next week at most. I think they still want to try this 6-man rotation in the most grueling part of their schedule in a bid to keep guys fresh and healthy. 
    • Thinking about bullpen trade acquisitions is interesting because of these two opposing truths: Fujinami/Flaherty trade Burnes trade Extremely different trades with extremely different talent levels.  I certainly hope Elias isn't messing around this year at the deadline, but his deadline track record consists of his two worst trades as a GM. But his most recent trade was one of his best and most impactful.  Which Elias are we going to get? 
    • I'm pretty sure the Pirates hang up on us unless we're willing to offer something like Holliday + Mayo/Basallo for Skenes, and that would be just nuts.
    • I like stories like this one about Tony and Jorge playing chess together in the clubhouse that Roch posted on his twitter today, so I'll put it here. https://www.masnsports.com/blog/santander-and-mateo-chess-mates-in-orioles-clubhouse
    • It all depends on who and how structured. Gunnar for example is a generational talent who plays with his hair on fire. Will that lead to injuries as years pass? IMO, you offer Gunnar/Boras a good 10 year deal with an opt out at his age 29 year if necessary. Pay for the 20's and pass pretty much on the 30's. Probably a no deal but that's me. I also avoid long term deals (over three to four years) with pitchers because they are fragile and seemingly getting more so. All the above is why I am not a GM or play one on this site or TV. If the Orioles look to reach and sustain a 150 to 175 mil contract on average going forward, I can see having two fairly large long term deals within that context. I also see Elias doing that in a practical matter with long range balance in mind. Question - how much or what percent of payroll is practical to commit to 2/26 of your roster? IMO, no perfect answer because there are so many variables. Again, why I am not a GM.
    • O’Hearn has a 124 wRC+ but his xwOBA is in the 93rd percentile. His xBA is .297 and xSLG is .548. Mountcastle has a 130 wRC+ and is in the 76th percentile in xwOBA. His actual wOBA is almost identical to his expected one.  It’s hard to imagine either Mayo or Kjerstad  performing better than either of them the rest of this season as rookies (Gunnar had a 124 wRC+ from 2022-2023 for example).  I foresee both of them being on the team next year unless a trade occurs, but I would lean more towards Mayo making an impact this year. Mainly due to the fact he might be able to play 3B and he’d be more useful as a DH considering they could use another RH bat more than a LH one.
    • There is little chance that O’Hearn’s role would change based on another .653 month.  Two more months, maybe.   I note that O’Hearn only struck out 9 times in 83 PA in May despite his low OPS.  Suggests to me that there was nothing fundamentally wrong with him, he just wasn’t squaring some balls up.   I feel good about his chances of turning that around.   
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